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Concentrating Solar Deployment Systems CSDS A New Model for Estimating U.S. Concentrating Solar Powe

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Build a new capability to examine future market penetration for concentrating solar power ... costs due to research and development have on market penetration? ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Concentrating Solar Deployment Systems CSDS A New Model for Estimating U.S. Concentrating Solar Powe


1
Concentrating Solar Deployment Systems (CSDS) A
New Model for Estimating U.S. Concentrating Solar
Power Market Potential
  • Nate Blair, Walter Short, Mark Mehos, Donna
    Heimiller
  • National Renewable Energy Laboratory

2
Goal of Analysis
  • Build a new capability to examine future market
    penetration for concentrating solar power
  • Extend capabilities of Wind Deployment System
    (WinDS)
  • Attempting to answer the following questions
  • When will concentrating solar power strongly
    enter the market under business-as-usual
    conditions?
  • What regions of the southwestern U.S. are most
    likely to see significant CSP market penetration?
  • Is an extension of the current investment tax
    credit (ITC) or a wind-type production tax credit
    (PTC) provide greater acceleration of market
    penetration?
  • What impact do the expected, improved costs due
    to research and development have on market
    penetration?
  • What is the sensitivity of deployment to general
    cost reductions?

3
CSDS Model (Concentrating Solar Deployment System)
  • A multi-regional, multi-time-period model of
    capacity expansion in the electric sector of the
    U.S. focused on renewables.
  • Designed to estimate market potential of solar
    energy in the U.S. for the next 20 50 years
    under different technology development and policy
    scenarios

4
CSDS Regions
5
Solar Resources in CSDS
6
General Characteristics of CSDS
  • Linear program cost minimization for each of 26
    two-year periods from 2000 to 2050
  • Sixteen time slices in each year 4 daily and 4
    seasons
  • Capacity factors for each timeslice determined by
    hourly simulation
  • 4 levels of regions solar supply/demand, power
    control areas, NERC areas, Interconnection areas
  • Existing and new transmission lines
  • 5 wind classes (3-7), onshore and offshore
    shallow and deep
  • 5 solar classes (6.75 kW/m2/day to 8 kw/m2/day)
  • All major power technologies hydro, gas CT, gas
    CC, 4 coal technologies, nuclear, gas/oil steam
  • Conventional costs and fuel prices from EIAs
    Annual Energy Outlook 2005

7
Current CSP Input Assumptions
  • SEGS Type Trough Plant
  • Typical 100 MW plant sizing
  • 6 hours of thermal storage
  • Prescribed capacity factor based on plant as
    modeled in Excelergy (NREL CSP specific model)
    for various solar resource levels
  • Costs (capital, fixed OM, Variable OM) from
    Excelergy for different locations
  • Assume cost reductions in line with DOE goals
  • 8 learning rate
  • Independent Power Producer (IPP) financing

8
Base Case Capacity by Generator Type
9
CSP Capacity deployment in 2050
10
Base Case Capacity by Solar Class
11
Base Case CSP by Transmission Type
12
Base Case Generation Fractions
13
Impact of CSP RD Improvements
14
Impact of Reduced Cost Scenario
15
Extension of Investment Tax Credit (ITC)
16
Extension of Production Tax Credit (ITC)
17
Conclusions
  • A tool was created for modeling CSP capacity
    growth and examine various scenarios while
    accounting for transmission needs.
  • CSP will contribute a share of future electric
    generation in our Base Case scenario and increase
    that share with various policy enhancements.
  • Increased RD leading to further reductions in
    cost are vital to CSP market penetration.
  • CSP deployment is very cost sensitive because the
    resource is geographically focused and relatively
    close to load centers.
  • Appropriate incentives are necessary to help
    assure a more sustained technology expansion.
  • Extending the Investment Tax Credit past 2007
    will dramatically increase the generation from
    CSP.
  • Implementing a Production Tax Credit for CSP
    similar to the PTC for wind has a minimal or
    negative impact on CSP deployment until costs
    drop significantly.

18
  • Disclaimer and Government License
  • This work has been authored by Midwest Research
    Institute (MRI) under Contract No.
    DE-AC36-99GO10337 with the U.S. Department of
    Energy (the DOE). The United States Government
    (the Government) retains and the publisher, by
    accepting the work for publication, acknowledges
    that the Government retains a non-exclusive,
    paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to
    publish or reproduce the published form of this
    work, or allow others to do so, for Government
    purposes. 
  • Neither MRI, the DOE, the Government, nor any
    other agency thereof, nor any of their employees,
    makes any warranty, express or implied, or
    assumes any liability or responsibility for the
    accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any
    information, apparatus, product, or process
    disclosed, or represents that its use would not
    infringe any privately owned rights. Reference
    herein to any specific commercial product,
    process, or service by trade name, trademark,
    manufacturer, or otherwise does not constitute or
    imply its endorsement, recommendation, or
    favoring by the Government or any agency thereof.
    The views and opinions of the authors and/or
    presenters expressed herein do not necessarily
    state or reflect those of MRI, the DOE, the
    Government, or any agency thereof.
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