The Physics of Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and the Iraq confrontation

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The Physics of Terrorism, Counter-terrorism,
and the Iraq confrontation

• LBL
• Institute for Nuclear Astrophysics
• November 15, 2002

Richard A. Muller
email ramuller_at_lbl.gov http//muller.lbl.gov
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Some of my experience on US security
Jason Consultant 1972-2002 DoD, DoE, FBI, CIA,
NSA, Army, Air Force, Navy 3-4 weeks during
summers, 2-4 weeks rest of year reports on
technical aspects of counter-terrorism (last 15
yr) tracking terrorists, finding hostages,
remote x-ray, radiological weapons, nuclear
power security, summer of 2001
UBL!! Technical aspects of Special Operations
Forces (PI) Technical aspects of Navy Seals
(PI) Advisory team bugging of U.S. Embassy
Building in Moscow DoD special report Did South
Africa test a nuclear weapon? US National
Academy Technical aspects of arms
control (with Soviet Academy, including
Sakharov!)
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September 112001
September 11, 2001 - a date which will live in
infamy - the United States of America was
suddenly and deliberately attacked by an
anonymous terrorist force that issued no demands.
They have awakened a sleeping giant and have
instilled in him a terrible resolve
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• What explosives did they use?
• How did they smuggle them on board?

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My only complicated chart for the evening
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Until they took over control of the planes, the
hijackers had done nothing illegal. Box cutters
were allowed. There was NO failure of airport
security. Guns werent necessary pilots had
instructions to cooperate. (This policy had saved
lives and airplanes in prior hijackings!)
September 11, 2001 the last hijacking of a plane
in the US. (I made this prediction on 9-11-01.)
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U.S. use of fuel-air weapon in Afghanistan

• Blu-82 Daisy-cutter
• 15,000 lb gasoline 7.5 tons
• originally developed to create helicopter
• landing area in Viet Nam jungle
• equivalent to 112 tons of TNT
• 1 of Hiroshima bomb

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understanding the terrorist mind
What did Osama bin Laden want? What were his
goals? What was his expected scenario?
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bin Ladens scenario (2001)

• al Qaeda successful attack on US (WTC,
  Pentagon, White House) ?
• Osama bin Laden credit for another miracle --
  first Russia, now US! ?
• US attacks Afghanistan ?
• Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Iran enter war against US
  ?
• US is bogged down -- US bodies pile up ?
• hatred of US spreads throughout Muslim and Arab
  worlds ?
• US withdraws (after about 1 year) ?
• Public says, Never again fight in Mid-East. No
  blood for oil. ?
• Osama takes over Saudi Arabia as new king ?

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Its tough to be a terrorist

• Smart plan / low quality of suicide volunteers
• Mohammed Atta threatened the life of USDA
  official
• Richard Reid couldnt ignite his own shoe
• Jose Padilla former Chicago street thug
• Zacarias Moussaoui flunked quizzes, didnt want
  to learn landing
• crème de la crème? No -- lécume de lécume
• destroyed infrastructure
• Virtually no sanctuaries
• High secrecy is now a weakness. Is it safe?
  Whom do you call?
• Charismatic leader has disappeared. (Almost
  certainly dead.)

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What could terrorists still do?

• small airplane attack on stadium
• simultaneous explosions in checked baggage
• attacks in other countries (Indonesia)
• one person uncoordinated attacks
• shoe bomber
• sniper? anthrax?

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Onion Passenger ban
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• Why not just install explosive detectors at every
  airport?

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limitations of explosive detection

• interior detection
• currently based on high nitrogen in most
  explosives
• high false alarm rate (one in twenty) from
  leather
• search luggage, or destroy it?
• not usable now. In future electric quadrupole
  resonance
• high resolution x-ray
• look for wiring pattern
• check computers carefully
• currently in use on selected flights
• sniffers
• detects trace material on the outside of the
  luggage or on person

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Explosives sniffers ion mobility spectrometers
But there is no adequate way to detect
explosives!
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Useful measures
Useless measures

• confiscate nail files, scissors, knives at
  airport
• air marshals on flights
• arm pilots
• federalization of airport security workers

• keep first-class curtains open in airplanes
• associate passenger with luggage
• check shoes
• restrict passengers in terminal
• ethnic/religious etc. profiling
• international police work
• infiltrate terrorist groups

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Now Iraq al Qaedasimultaneously
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easy prediction

• Saddam will NOT allow inspections.

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• Full-scale replica of Nagasaki bomb

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This was built! All it required (in 1991) was
U-235.
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Calutrons at Tarmiya
Iraqi watch At the time of the Gulf war, eight
1200mm units were in limited operation at
Tarmiya, and preparations had begun for a second
group of seventeen 1200mm separators. According
to Iraq's declarations to U.N. inspectors, it
managed to produce 640 grams of enriched uranium
with an average enrichment of 7.2 at Tuwaitha
and some 685 grams at an average enrichment of 3
at Al Tarmiya.
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former Iraqi Calutron (UN photo)
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CalutronsIAEA Hans Blix report on Iraq
inspections
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Diamonds and U-235
What people pay for gem quality diamonds 5000
per carat 12,000,000 per lb What Saddam
paid to obtain U-235 for his bomb 144,000,000
per lb
For the right customer, U-235 is worth 12 X the
value of gem quality diamonds
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Is U-235 available?
(Atom bomb requires about 20 lb)
Kazakhstan 1995 ship remaining U-235 to Russia
Qualify for benefits of 1968 Nuclear
Non-proliferation Treaty 1996 Oops they find
another 450 lb Turkey 2001 Istanbul police
seize 2 lb U-235 from smugglers Asking price
750,000 Why so cheap? What fraction has been
intercepted?
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What could Saddam do with one bomb?

• put in shipping container and send to US
• drive it in truck to Washington DC
• explode it
• announce that he was responsible
• threaten to attack another US city unless we
  withdraw from Mid-East

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US invasion of Iraq (50)of Baghdad (25)
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Key technologiesof the coming war
We own the night! (motto of the U.S. Special
Operations Forces)

• RPV -- remotely-piloted vehicles
• (also known as UAV -- unmanned air vehicles)
• IR -- infrared vision and night warfare
• SAR -- synthetic aperture radar imaging

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Pioneer unmanned air vehicle (UAV)
When the Pioneer came over Faylaka Island, near
Kuwait City, the defenders heard the obnoxious
sound emitted by the two cycle engine, because
the air vehicle was intentionally being flown low
to let the Iraqis know that they were targeted.
Recognizing that with the "vulture" overhead,
there would soon be more of those 2000 pound
naval gunfire rounds landing on their positions
with the same accuracy, the Iraqis made the right
choice and, using handkerchiefs, undershirts, and
bed sheets, they signaled their desire to
surrender. The remote pilot called his
commanding officer and asked, Sir, they want to
surrender. What should I do with them?
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Predator
Primary Function Airborne surveillance
reconnaissance and target acquisition Contractor
General Atomics Aeronautical Systems
Incorporated Power Plant Rotax 914 four cylinder
engine producing 101 horsepower Length 27 feet
(8.22 meters) Height 6.9 feet (2.1
meters) Weight 1,130 pounds ( 512 kilograms)
empty, maximum takeoff weight 2,250 pounds (1,020
kilograms) Wingspan 48.7 feet (14.8
meters) Speed Cruise speed around 84 mph (70
knots), up to 135 mph Range up to 400 nautical
miles (454 miles) Ceiling up to 25,000 feet
(7,620 meters) Fuel Capacity 665 pounds (100
gallons) Payload 450 pounds (204
kilograms) System Cost 40 million (1997
dollars) Inventory Active force, 48 ANG, 0
Reserve, 0
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Thursday, February 7, 2002 CIA missile said to
kill suspected al Qaeda leader WASHINGTON - A
missile fired by remote control from a pilotless
CIA aircraft has hit what was believed to be a
group of senior al Qaeda members in southeastern
Afghanistan, killing at least one of them, U.S.
officials said on Wednesday. "It was a CIA
Predator missile that was fired upon what was
thought to be a senior al Qaeda official," said
the official, who asked not to be identified. He
said the attack took place on Monday night. "At
least one was killed and possibly others. It's
not clear who the individual was," the official
said, adding that bad weather in the region had
prevented a mission to identify bodies. The al
Qaeda leader who was killed in the attack was
taller than the handful of others surrounding
him, leading to some speculation about whether
the United States may have hit its most wanted
man in the war on terrorism -- Osama bin
Laden. Bin Laden, whose height is estimated on
the FBI's most wanted terrorist list to be 6 feet
4 inches to 6 feet 6 inches (193 cm to 198 cm),
is blamed by the United States for the Sept. 11
attacks on America that killed about 3,000
people. But another U.S. official said several
al Qaeda leaders were tall, including Ayman
al-Zawahri, bin Laden's top lieutenant. U.S.
officials believe it was an al Qaeda leader
because of the manner in which the others around
him were paying homage. "You can tell from
overhead that one guy's the center of attention,"
the official said. "The central figure had a
close encounter of the worst kind with a Hellfire
missile," he said.
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Terrorist killed in Yemen
November 4, 2002
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Washington Nov 4, 307 PM (AP) US forces killed
a top associate of Osama bin Laden in Yemen in a
missile strike a U.S. official said Monday.
Qued Salim Siman al Harethi was one of several al
Qaida members traveling by car in northwest Yemen
when a Hellfire missile struck it Sunday, killing
him and five others. U.S. counter-terrorism
officials have said that al Harethi, also known
as Abu Ali, was al Qaidas chief operative in
Yemen He is a suspect in the bombing of the
destroyer USS Cole in Aden, Yemen, on Oct. 12,
2000.
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Infrared vision

• Special Operations
• We own the night!

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night vision
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Radar

• isnt what it used to be.

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Predator UAVcarries SAR radar
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PredatorTactical Synthetic Aperture
Radarresolution 1 foot
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Global Hawk
Global Hawk operates at ranges up to 3000
nautical miles from its launch area, with loiter
capability over the target area of up to 24 hours
at altitudes greater than 60,000 feet. It is
capable of simultaneously carrying
electro-optical (EO), infra-red (IR), and
synthetic aperture radar (SAR) payloads, and is
capable of both wideband satellite and
Line-Of-Sight (LOS) data link communications.
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JSTARS (Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar
System)modified Boeing 707-300
Jstars can gather and display broad and detailed
battlefield information as events occur, and
relay it in near-real time to the Army's ground
stations. Radar includes SAR (synthetic
aperture radar), wide area surveillance, moving
target indicator (MTI), fixed target indicator
(FTI), and target classification. The antenna has
a 120-degree field of view covering nearly 19,305
square miles (50,000 square kilometers) and is
capable of detecting targets at more than 250
kilometers (more than 820,000 feet). In
addition to being able to detect, locate and
track large numbers of ground vehicles the radar
has some capability to detect low, slow-moving
airplanes, helicopters, and rotating antennas.
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GA Lynx Synthetic Aperture Radar
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Will Baghdad be a pushover?
unfortunately NO
but maybe not for the reasons you think.
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the Danger
massive use by Saddam of biological weapons
against U. S. troops, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and
his own people
That is what Saddam believes prevented the
invasion of Baghdad. Is it true?
possible solution convince Iraqi troops and
commanders to disobey their doomed leader
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a little bit of Political Science
(for which I am not credentialed)
Who will be our strongest allies in the Persian
Gulf region in 2004?
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• Kuwait
• Afghanistan
• Iraq

• \

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Summary

• Large-scale terrorism unlikely in US
• Key threat comes from Iraq nuclear
• Hope Iraqis hate Saddam, will overthrow
• Invasion -- mode will surprise most people
• Danger Iraqi biological weapons

viewgraphs available at http//muller.lbl.gov/Terr
orismTalk.htm
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