Title: Links between climate, air pollution and energy policies Findings from the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas
1Links between climate, air pollution and energy
policies Findings from the GAINS (Greenhouse
Gas Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies)
model
- Markus Amann
- International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis (IIASA)
2Air pollutant emissions as a function of CO2
mitigation (EU-25, 2020)
3The GAINS model The RAINS multi-pollutant/
multi-effect framework extended to GHGs
Economic synergies between emission control
measures
PM SO2 NOx VOC NH3 CO2 CH4 N2O PFCsHFCsSF6
Health impacts PM ? ? ? ? ?
O3 ? ? ?
Vegetation damage O3 ? ? ?
Acidification ? ? ?
Eutrophication ? ?
Radiative forcing - direct ? ? ? ?
- via aerosols ? ? ? ? ?
- via OH ? ? ?
PM SO2 NOx VOC NH3
Health impacts PM ? ? ? ? ?
O3 ? ?
Vegetation damage O3 ? ?
Acidification ? ? ?
Eutrophication ? ?
Physical interactions
Multiple benefits
4Emission control options considered in GAINSwith
country/region-specific application potentials
and costs
- Air pollutants
- 1500 options for SO2, NOx, VOC, NH3, PM
- CO2
- 162 options for power plants, transport,
industry, domestic - CH4
- 28 options for the gas sector, waste management,
enteric fermentation, manure management, coal
mines, rice paddies - N2O
- 18 options for arable land and grassland,
industry, combustion, health care, waste
treatment - F-gases
- 22 options for refrigeration, mobile and
stationary air conditioning, HCFC22 production,
primary aluminum production, semiconductor
industry and other sectors
5Structure of primary energy consumptionfor
different GHG targets (Source PRIMES)
Source E3mlab ICCS-NTUA
6Current legislation air pollution control costs
(SO2, NOx, PM) as a function of CO2 mitigation
(EU-25, 2020)
Baseline
7Net costs of GHG mitigation considering cost
savings from avoided current EU legislation air
pollution control measures (EU25, 2020)
50 /t CO2
20 /t CO2
8Net costs for further air pollution control as a
function of CO2 mitigation (EU-25, 2020) -
Sequential approach
Sequential approach Climate policy first
then air pollution control on the resulting
energy pattern
Baseline
9Cost savings from an integrated
approachProvisional GAINS estimates, EU-25, 2020
Integrated approach Joint optimization of GHG
and air pollution control
Baseline
10Cost savings from an integrated
approachProvisional GAINS estimates, EU-25, 2020
Integrated approach Joint GAINS optimization
for GHG and air pollution targets
11From a climate perspectiveNet costs of GHG
mitigation for fixed AQ targets (considering cost
savings for avoided air pollution control)
Integrated approach Joint GAINS optimization
for GHG and air pollution targets
12Conclusions (1)
- There are physical and economic interactions
between the control of air pollution emissions
and GHG mitigation - If these problems are considered separately
- From the an air pollution perspective
- Baseline AP emissions, impacts and control costs
(for fixed AP legislation) depend on the level of
GHG mitigation - Costs of strengthened AQ policies depend on the
level of GHG mitigation - Further AP control strategies have co-benefits on
GHG mitigation costs. - From a climate perspective
- GHG mitigation costs depend on the level of AP
control - GHG mitigation costs have co-benefits on AQ
impacts
13Conclusions (2)
- An integrated approach could reduce total costs
for GHG mitigation and air pollution control. - Cost savings are immediate, they are real money
and they occur to the actors who have to invest
into mitigation. - GAINS offers a tool for such an integrated
analysis to identify concrete measures that are
beneficial. - All quantitative estimates are provisional.