OnRoad Motor Vehicles

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On-Road Motor Vehicles

• EMFAC2007 - Statewide
• Dilip Patel
• November 15, 2006

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EMFAC2007 - Summary of Changes
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Contributions on Percentage Basis to Total
Changes in Tons Per Day
4
Trends All Vehicles

• Statewide

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Statewide Vehicle Populations
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Statewide Vehicle Miles Traveled
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Statewide ROG (Tailpipe)
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Statewide ROG (Evaporative)
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Statewide ROG (Total)
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Statewide Total NOx
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Statewide Total PM10
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Trends Heavy-Heavy Duty Vehicles

• Statewide

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Statewide HHDV Populations
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Statewide HHDV Miles Traveled
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Statewide ROG (Tailpipe) from HHDV
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Statewide ROG (Evaporative) from HHDVs
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Statewide ROG (Total) from HHDVs
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Statewide Total NOx from HHDVs
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Statewide Total PM10 from HHDVs
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Contributions by Vehicle Class 2002 Calendar
Year

• Statewide

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Vehicle Class Definitions

• For this presentation only
• LDV passenger cars, light- medium-duty trucks
  (
• L-MHDV Light and Medium Heavy- Duty Trucks (
  8,501 33,000 lbs)
• HHDV Heavy-Heavy Duty Trucks ( 33,001 lbs)
• Buses School, Urban and Other Buses
• MCY Motorcycles
• MH - Motorhomes

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Statewide Vehicle Population by Vehicle Class
(2002 CY)
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Statewide Vehicle Miles Traveled by Vehicle
Class (2002 CY)
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Statewide Total ROG Emissions by Vehicle Class
(2002 CY)
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Statewide Total NOx Emissions by Vehicle Class
(2002 CY)
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Statewide Total PM10 Emissions by Vehicle Class
(2002 CY)
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Contributions by Vehicle Class 2015 Calendar
Year

• Statewide

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Statewide Vehicle Population by Vehicle Class
(2015 CY)
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Statewide Vehicle Miles Traveled by Vehicle
Class (2015 CY)
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Statewide Total ROG Emissions by Vehicle Class
(2015 CY)
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Statewide Total NOx Emissions by Vehicle Class
(2015 CY)
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Statewide Total PM10 Emissions by Vehicle Class
(2015 CY)
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Statewide Observations (by 2015)

• Change in Contribution of Emissions by Vehicle
  Class
• ROG
• Increase contribution from Motorcycles and HHDVs
• PM10
• Mainly from HHDVs and LDVs
• NOx
• Increase contribution from HHDVs

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On-Road Motor Vehicles

• EMFAC2007 Sacramento Air Basin
• Dilip Patel
• November 15, 2006

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EMFAC2007 - Summary of Changes
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Contributions on Percentage Basis to Total
Changes in Tons Per Day
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Trends All Vehicles

• Sacramento Air Basin

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Sacramento AB Vehicle Populations
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Sacramento AB Vehicle Miles Traveled
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Sacramento AB ROG (Tailpipe)
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Sacramento AB ROG (Evaporative)
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Sacramento AB ROG (Total)
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Sacramento AB Total NOx
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Sacramento AB Total PM10
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Trends Heavy-Heavy Duty Vehicles

• Sacramento Air Basin

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Sacramento AB HHDV Populations
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Sacramento AB HHDV Miles Traveled
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Sacramento AB ROG (Tailpipe) from HHDV
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Sacramento AB ROG (Evaporative) from HHDVs
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Sacramento AB ROG (Total) from HHDVs
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Sacramento AB Total NOx from HHDVs
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Sacramento AB Total PM10 from HHDVs
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Contributions by Vehicle Class 2002 Year

• Sacramento Air Basin

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Vehicle Class Definitions

• For this presentation only
• LDV passenger cars, light- medium-duty trucks
  (
• L-MHDV Light and Medium Heavy- Duty Trucks (
  8,501 33,000 lbs)
• HHDV Heavy-Heavy Duty Trucks ( 33,001 lbs)
• Buses School, Urban and Other Buses
• MCY Motorcycles
• MH - Motorhomes

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Sacramento AB Vehicle Population by Vehicle
Class (2002 CY)
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Sacramento AB Vehicle Miles Traveled by Vehicle
Class (2002 CY)
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Sacramento AB Total ROG Emissions by Vehicle
Class (2002 CY)
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Sacramento AB Total NOx Emissions by Vehicle
Class (2002 CY)
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Sacramento AB Total PM10 Emissions by Vehicle
Class (2002 CY)
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Contributions by Vehicle Class 2015 Calendar
Year

• Sacramento Air Basin

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Sacramento AB Vehicle Population by Vehicle
Class (2015 CY)
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Sacramento AB Vehicle Miles Traveled by Vehicle
Class (2015 CY)
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Sacramento AB Total ROG Emissions by Vehicle
Class (2015 CY)
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Sacramento AB Total NOx Emissions by Vehicle
Class (2015 CY)
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Sacramento AB Total PM10 Emissions by Vehicle
Class (2015 CY)
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Sacramento AB Observations (by 2015)

• Change in Contribution of Emissions by Vehicle
  Class
• ROG
• Increase contribution from Motorcycles and HHDVs
• PM10
• Mainly from HHDVs and LDVs
• NOx
• Increase contribution from HHDVs

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Items Previously Presented

• Fuel Correction Factors
• I/M Updates
• Brake Wear
• Accrual Rates
• COG Activity Updates
• Ethanol Permeation
• Temperature Profiles
• Relative Humidity Profiles
• HD Gas Cap Algorithms
• Bug Fixes

• Previous Presentations and Documentation
  available at
• http//www.arb.ca.gov/msei/msei.htm

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Significant Updates to be Discussed Today

• Population Updates
• HHDDT VMT Redistribution
• HHDDT BERs and SCFs

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Population Updates

• Lead Staff Alice Tong

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Vehicle Population Estimates

• Population data - California Department of Motor
  Vehicles (DMV) calendar years 2000-2005
• Vehicle Classifications - Weight data from Bureau
  of Automotive Repair (BAR). Also used weight
  data from DMV (trucks only)
• Addition of Other Bus Category buses other
  than School or Urban transit (i.e. charter)
• Redistribution of HHDDT Population statewide
  populations redistributed in proportion to HHDDT
  VMT

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Steps to Estimate Population

• Using DMVs Vehicle Registration Database
• Initial DMV QA Process
• Exclude Duplicates Unqualified Records (Age,
  Fuel, Registration Status, Etc.)
• Assign by Geographic Area
• Evaluate Registration Status of Candidate
  Vehicles
• Pending

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EMFAC2002 - populations

• Base population 1999 calendar year
• Backcasts / Forecasts 1999
• Excluded all Pending Vehicles vehicles with
  undetermined registration status
• Excludes all Alternatively Fueled Vehicles
  Alternative Fuel none Gas, Electric, or Diesel
• Excludes Vehicles Older than 45 Years
• Excludes all Out-of-State Vehicles registered
  in CA but have mailing addresses outside

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EMFAC2007

• Base population 2000-2005 calendar years
• Backcasts from 2000 Forecasts from 2005
• Includes all Instantaneous Pending Vehicles
• Excludes all Alternatively Fueled Vehicles
  includes Hybrids
• Excludes Vehicles Older than 45 Years
• Excludes all Out-of-State Vehicles

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Pending Vehicles

• Pending Vehicles are vehicles which have begun
  the registration process but, for various
  reasons, have not completed the process
• There are many reasons why a vehicle is in
  Pending. Including
• Vehicle no longer in use but DMV has not yet
  purged the record from their database
• Smog-Check, Proof of Insurance, Parking Ticket,
  etc.

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Instantaneous and Chronic Pending Vehicles

• Pending vehiclescandidate vehicles for inclusion
  into the population estimate.
• Chronic Pending vehicles which remain in the
  Pending status in the following year
• Instantaneous Pending vehicles which come off
  the Pending status and become fully registered
  one year later
• Total Population Registered Instantaneous
  Pending

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DMV Registration Status Summary - CY2000-CY2005
Total On Road Population Current
Instantaneous Pending
Note It is important to note that Chronic
Unregistered vehicles are a subset of Chronic
Pending vehicles. Therefore, the percentage of
Chronic Pending can not be taken to represent the
percentage of Chronic Unregistered vehicles.
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EMFAC2007 final estimates

• Includes Instantaneous Pending
• Excludes Chronic Pending
• Includes - Hybrids
• Excludes CNG, LPG fueled vehicles.
• Most appear to have non-road applications
• Excludes all out-of-state vehicles.
• Primarily students and military and hence not
  operating in CA.

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Validation - Comparison with other Population
Estimates (CY2003)
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Population Summary

• Compared to EMFAC2002, net population will
  increase by 0-4 over six years (2000-2005).
• This results in an increase in Evaporative and
  Starting emissions, but little exhaust effect
  (tied to VMT, not population).
• Staff continues working with DMV to clean the
  data set.

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Heavy Heavy-Duty Diesel Truck Travel
Redistribution

• Lead Staff Augustus Pela, Pranay Avlani,
  Seungju Yoon

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HHDDT VMT Redistribution

• Why Redistribute?
• EMFAC 2002 allocated VMT by location of truck
  registration. (Popregistered_area Accrual Rate
  VMTarea)
• But heavy-heavy duty diesel trucks travel far
  from their registered location
• What was changed?
• Revised EMFAC VMT allocation is by miles of
  travel
• More accurately reflects driving patterns in
  California
• VMT redistributed from urban areas to rural areas
• Decreased VMT in South Coast and Bay Area
• Increased VMT in SJV and Mojave Desert

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HHDDT VMT Redistribution

• How was real-world truck travel estimated?
• Evaluated a major statewide survey of truck
  travel (8,000 trucks) conducted by Caltrans, 2001
• Used GIS to estimate probable mileage based on
  origin/destination data
• Summed estimated mileage and calculated
  percentage of survey travel by county
• Compared results to MVSTAFF

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HHDDT VMT Redistribution

• How was the change made in EMFAC?
• Redistributed HHDDT population in proportion to
  travel in each area
• Assume statewide mileage accrual rates
• Apply county-level growth estimates based on
  MVSTAFF
• For further details, please see memo titled
  Redistribution Of Heavy-Heavy Duty Diesel Truck
  Vehicle Miles Traveled In California on our
  website at http//www.arb.ca.gov/msei/supportdocs.
  htmonroad

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HHDDT Redistribution - Results

• Year 2000 HHDDT VMT

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HHDDT VMT Redistribution
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Heavy Heavy-Duty Diesel Truck Emission Factors
Speed Correction Factors

• Lead Staff Lei Zhou

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HHDDT Base Emission Rates

• Improved Emission Rate Data
• Updated using CRC E-55/59 test data
• Larger sample size (70 vs 23 trucks)
• Included testing of 1999-2003 MY trucks
• Projection for 2007 rates based on 2003 MY
  instead of 1997 MY data

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Comparison of Zero-Mile Rates for Selected Model
Year Groups
Rates in red projected using ratio of
standards
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Tampering Malmaintenance Rates

• EMFAC2002 did not account for a variety of
  emission control system malfunctions of future
  year trucks
• HDV OBD is designed to reduce frequency of
  failures
• EMFAC2007 reflects malfunctions and benefits of
  OBD requirements

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TMM Frequency for 2010 MYs
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Comparison of Deterioration Rates for Selected
Model Year Groups
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Comparison of NOx Emission Rates at 500,000 Miles
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Trend of NOx Emission Rates
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Comparison of PM Emission Rates at 500,000 Miles
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Trend of PM Emission Rates
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Idle Emission Rates

• EMFAC2002 NOx, HC, and CO idle emission rates for
  HHDD trucks were based on data of nine 1996-98
  model year trucks
• EMFAC2002 PM idle emission rates were from USEPA
  MOBILE model
• Idle emission rates of all pollutants were
  revised in EMFAC2007 using CRC E-55/59 idle test
  data of 47 trucks

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Comparison of NOx Idle Emission Rates
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Comparison of PM Idle Emission Rates
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High Idle Emission Factors
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Speed Correction Factor Revision

• Revised HHDDT speed correction factors using CRC
  E-55/59 test data
• Three sets of SCFs for Pre-1991 MY, 1991-2002 MY,
  and 2003 MY groups
• Reflect the effect of off-cycle NOx and future
  engine and control technologies

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NOx Speed Correction Factors
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PM Speed Correction Factors
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Emission Impact of SCF Modification
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Truck Idle Regulations

• ARB latest enforcement data indicate 2
  noncompliance rate as of June 2006
• 32 citations/1,700 inspections
• Assume 100 2008 MY sleepers having 5-min
  shut-off devices and 90 sleepers using an APU as
  a power supply

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Emission Impact of Idle Regulations
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HD Truck Chip Reflash

• ARB data 70 of 1993-98 MY Consent Decree
  trucks reflashed by Sep 2006
• USEPA data 2 annual rebuild rate for
  reflashable HD trucks
• Emission Changes of chip reflash based on CRC
  E-55/59 test data of four chip reflashed trucks
• -17 for NOx and 7 for PM

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Emission Impact of Chip Reflash
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End of On-Road Motor Vehicles