World Federation of Scientists International Seminars on Planetary Emergencies - 42nd Session Ettore Majorana Centre, Erice, Italy - August 2009. Energy Permanent Monitoring Panel, Session No. 1 The Likely Timing of the Peak in the Global Production - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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World Federation of Scientists International Seminars on Planetary Emergencies - 42nd Session Ettore Majorana Centre, Erice, Italy - August 2009. Energy Permanent Monitoring Panel, Session No. 1 The Likely Timing of the Peak in the Global Production

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Indonesia: Two peaks of discovery: Onshore & Offshore. Again: Cumulative data say it all ... (N.B. Volume = width in Gb, not area, of blocks) Recent Reports: 1: 'The Oil Crunch' ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: World Federation of Scientists International Seminars on Planetary Emergencies - 42nd Session Ettore Majorana Centre, Erice, Italy - August 2009. Energy Permanent Monitoring Panel, Session No. 1 The Likely Timing of the Peak in the Global Production


1
World Federation of ScientistsInternational
Seminars on Planetary Emergencies - 42nd
SessionEttore Majorana Centre, Erice, Italy -
August 2009.Energy Permanent Monitoring Panel,
Session No. 1The Likely Timing of the Peak in
the Global Production of Conventional Oil R.W.
BentleyVisiting Research Fellow Dept. of
Cybernetics, University of Reading, UK.
2
  • Outline of Talk
  • The University of Reading Oil Group
  • Oil peaking Viewpoints in collision
  • Resource-limited oil production peak - A Simple
    model
  • '2P' data Germany, UK other countries
  • '1P' data The US
  • '2P' data The World
  • Current modelling - Results of the UKERC Task 7
    report
  • Conclusions

3
The University of Reading, UK Oil Resources
Group Past present Postgraduate Research
Institute for Sedimentology Prof. M.L. Coleman
(ex-BP), Prof. B.W. Sellwood. Department of
Engineering Dr. J.D. Burton, Mr. R.H. Booth
(ex-Shell), Dr. R.M. Mayer (ex-BP), Prof.
P.D. Dunn, MSc. students (also City
University). Department of Cybernetics Dr.
G.R. Whitfield, Dr. R.W. Bentley
(ex-Exxon). Affiliated Dr. D. Fleming,
independent economist. Until recently, the only
UK academic group doing quantitative research on
future global hydrocarbon supply.
4
Viewpoints in Collision The global
resource-limited oil production peak is -
Near (Geologists 0 to 10 years away) - Far
away (e.g., Prof. P. Odell not until 2060)
- Not in sight (IEA, OPEC, US EIA, Exxon, EU
WETO and WETO-H2 studies, UK DTI /
BERR / DECC, 10 Downing Street) -
Never (Economists Adelman, Davies, Stevens,
Maugeri ... - 'it's just lack of
investment needed to turn resources into
reserves'.) A resource-limited peak in global
oil production would be a serious thing for the
world economically, and has complex impacts on
the drivers for climate change. It needs to be
understood.
5
  • Conventional Oil
  • The Accepted View - No Peak in Sight
  • The World has plenty of proved oil reserves -
  • 1200 billion barrels (Gb)
  • Production 30 Gb/year ? 40 years' worth of
    reserves
  • We discover 10 - 15 Gb/year in new fields
  • Technology is increasing recovery factors
  • So No peak in sight.
  • Why is this wrong? - Let's look at a simple
    model

6
  • The Mechanism of Oil Peaking for Conventional
    Oil Adding fields, big ones first.

7
  • Peak is Counter-Intuitive - It occurs when
  • production is rising reserves are large new
    fields are being discovered technology is
    increasing recovery factors

What to forecast at year-10?
8
  • Peak is Counter-Intuitive - It occurs when
  • production is rising reserves are large new
    fields are being discovered technology is
    increasing recovery factors

What to forecast at year-10?
Yet-to-find
Produced
Reserves
9
  • Peak is simple Discovery then Production

Fields take 5 years to get into production
Discovery
Production
10
  • Estimating the Date of Peak Cumulative data

Cumulative discovery
Cumulative production
URR 1000 units Peak at 36 of URR at 44
of Cum. Discovery
11
  • Estimating the Date of Peak contd. - Isosceles
    triangle

Areas below all three curves 1000 units
Discovery
Isosceles triangle estimating date of peak
Production
12
  • Estimating the Date of Peak - contd.

Now 60 countries have gone over peak - all with
enough fields to verify the process and many
more individual large regions (e.g., onshore
offshore). The model is largely borne out. Let's
compare to real data
13
  • Two case studies
  • Germany numerous fields, long past peak
  • UK numerous fields, recently past peak
  • Discovery peak first, production peak afterwards.
  • 2P data from IHS Energy Energyfiles Ltd.

14
Germany A peak in the 1960s - But
resource-limited, or other?
15
The peak - Resource-limited, at least in terms of
fields discovered
16
The Cumulative data say it all Resource-limited
in terms of URR
17
Simple model - a reasonable approx'n. of field
addition (Data BGR)
18
UK Discovery, then production. (1985 peak not
resource-limited)
19
Simple model Again, a reasonable approximation
of field addition.
20
Some other countries Still Discovery peak
first, production peak afterwards Proved
probable ('2P') discovery data from industry
sources.
21
Indonesia Two peaks of discovery Onshore
Offshore
22
Again Cumulative data say it all - A
resource-limited peak.
23
Russia A great hope?
24
Not on these data Resource-limited peak is close
(or past)
25
What about some Middle East countries? - Let's
start with Iran.
26
No peak yet But on USGS Campbell URRs the peak
is not far.
27
What about Iraq? - Three phases of discovery
three of production (OPEC quota, and two wars.)
28
Peak is some way off. - But don't expect much
more to be found on this USGS (year-2000) URR,
Campbell's, or later USGS analysis.
29
And now the big question - Saudi Arabia?
(Ghawar in 1948)
30
Well, no peak yet - data to 2000. But note URRs
(USGS Campbell)
31
Now the US Beware only proved ('1P') data.
Source IHS Energy
32
1P data Discovery production in phase (10-yr.
gap). Note Prudhoe.
33
100 years' of 1P data Discovery production in
phase (10-yr. gap).
34
Other examples Many other examples of peaking
over 100 large regions (including gt60 countries)
are past resource-limited oil peak. (See David
Strahans Last Oil Shock website for a map of
countries past peak, based on Energyfiles Ltd
data.) World peaking What happens if we apply
the 50 rule to global production?
35
World 2P data - Discovery peak 1960s Prodn. gt
discv'y. since 1980
Discovered 2033 Gb Produced 934 Gb
Percent 46
36
'Mid-point peaking', 2P data, Global peak is
close. (NB USGS URRs)
37
  • Estimating the Date of Peak - Current Forecasts
  • UK Energy Research Centre Study
  • (to be published September)
  • Current models
  • International IEA, OPEC
  • National US EIA, Germany's BGR
  • Oil Companies Shell, Exxon, Total, Statoil
    (Meling)
  • Consultancies Energyfiles, LBST, Peak Oil
    Consulting
  • Universities individuals University of
    Uppsala, Colin
  • Campbell, Richard Miller.

38
UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) Study
Thirteen Current Oil Forecasts - 'Quasi-linear'
'Peaking'
39
UKERC Task-7 Forecasts of conventional oil -
Focussing on URR, year of peak, and post-peak
aggregate decline rate.
40
UKERC Task-7 Comparing Conventional oil
forecasts on URR, year of peak, and aggregate
post-peak decline rate.
41
Conclusions from UKERC Task-7
  • 'Quasi-linear' models look incorrect. (Probably
    unrealistic aggregate decline rates depletion
    rates (of remaining resources) rates of
    discovery impact of reserves growth NGL
    volumes.
  • Detailed bottom-up forecasts by field look more
    likely.
  • There is a strong need for all modellers to meet
    compare methodologies results.

42
Once Conventional oil has peaked What about
'All-liquids'
  • Very large potential volumes exist
  • Tar sands, oil from shale, GTLs, CTLs
  • Biofuels
  • Oil substitution (electric compressed natural
    gas vehicles)

43
There is a lot of oil and nearly-oil - IEA data
44
  • Non-conventional oil - Rate of supply
  • Not total resources, but rate of access to these
    resources
  • The factors to consider include
  • Readiness of the technology
  • Availability of investment
  • Pollution considerations CO2 considerations
    primary
  • Net energy limits, and importantly, net energy
    rate limits
  • Manpower and skills resource bases.
  • For the business-as-usual case, 40 Mb/d of
    non-conventional fuels are required a decade
    after conventional oil peaks.
  • It is a lot of energy to source, or save.
  • No-one - we think - has yet done the modelling in
    sufficient detail.

45
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46
  • Conclusions Oil
  • Examples of oil peak
  • Peak discovery Peak production
  • U.S. 1930s 1971
  • Germany 1950s 1967
  • U.K. mid-70s 1999
  • Norway mid-70s 2001
  • Forecast
  • World, conv. mid-60s 2010
  • Probable peak of all-oil (incl. non-conv.)
    2010 - 2020
  • Unresolved issues
  • Size of Middle-East 2P (proved probable)
    reserves
  • Significance of reserves growth
  • Limits to the rate that non-conventional oil and
    oil-
  • substitutes can come on-stream (including
    net-energy rate limit).

47
  • Conclusions Gas
  • Conventional (and possibly, all) gas peaks
    around 2030 depending on transportation
    infrastructure (pipelines, LNG ships).
  • Conclusions Overall
  • Conventional oil peaks fairly soon
  • Conventional gas peaks reasonably soon
  • All-liquids almost certainly peaks reasonably
    soon
  • All-gas almost certainly peaks reasonably soon
  • There are serious climate change impacts that
    need to be assessed (the switch to coal global
    'energy-stress' pushing climate change off the
    agenda investment shortages.)
  • On the positive side the steps needed for
    climate change and peak oil are similar.

48
END
49
  • Oil Reserves Good data Bad data Use the
    good.
  • Public-domain proved reserves (1P)
  • Thirty years ago we had 30 years worth of oil,
    now
  • we have 40 years.
  • Atrocious data under-reported, over-reported,
    not reported.
  • Industry proved plus probable reserves (2P)
  • Data used here from IHS Energy Energyfiles
    Ltd.
  • - Full data set, by field plus analysis
    gt 1 million/yr.
  • - PEPS dataset, by country 5,000.
  • Other aggregate industry data Wood Mackenzie,
    PFC Energy,
  • also IFP, BGR.
  • And see An Atlas of Oil Gas Depletion. C.J.
    Campbell and S. Heapes, Jeremy Mills Publishing,
    Huddersfield, 2008. (But need to add in to
    'regular oil' deepwater, polar, tar sands
    NGLs.)

50
  • Mechanism of resource-limited peak for
    conventional oil
  • Resource-limited peak Production reaches a
    maximum, then starts irreversible decline due to
    the limited quantity of the recoverable resource.
  • It happens after discovery has declined.
  • Then production declines at the point when
    falling output from the large early fields is no
    longer compensated by increased production from
    the numerous smaller later fields.
  • The mechanism of peak is
  • - decline in individual fields, primarily from
    pressure loss
  • - addition of fields over time
  • - later fields are generally smaller
  • - once discovery has declined, the later fields
    hold too little oil.
  • 2P data are crucial to see the oil discovery
    decline.

51
Error in BERR No. 10 Downing St. view not
understanding the peaking mechanism. www.pm.gov.u
k Peakoil epetition reply, 3 October 2007
.. the Governments assessment is that the
worlds oil and gas resources are sufficient to
sustain economic growth for the foreseeable
future. This quotes the IEA 2005 document
Resources to Reserves. Error comes from
looking at the recoverable resources available,
but not understanding peaking. The conventional
oil reserves they depend on (see next slide OPEC
ME, Other conv. oil, deep, super-deep, Arctic
EOR) exist, but will produce at a declining rate.
See WEO required cumulative need to 2030 bar
on next slide.
52
IEA There is a lot of oil nearly-oil(N.B.
Volume width in Gb, not area, of blocks)
53
  • Recent Reports 1 'The Oil Crunch' Report
  • First report of the UK Industry Taskforce on
    Peak Oil Energy
  • Security (ITPOES)
  • Taskforce Members
  • - Arup
  • - FirstGroup
  • - Foster and Partners
  • - Scottish and Southern
  • - Solarcentury
  • - Stagecoach group
  • - Virgin Group
  • - Yahoo!
  • Report released 29th October 2008.
    www.peakoiltaskforce.net

54
  • 2 The IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
  • Much more conservative on oil supply - 106 Mb/d
    in 2030 (vs. 116 Mb/d in 2007 WEO)
  • (And very strong on difficulty of meeting CO2
    goals).
  • But probably still not modelling 'peaking'
    properly.

55
3 United Kingdom Energy Research Council
Technology Policy Assessment (UKERC TPA) study
  • Under Rob Gross at Imperial College being
    carried out by Steve Sorrel (Sussex) and Jamie
    Speirs (Imperial) with a number of tasks being
    sub-contracted.
  • UKERC promoted by Sir David King to look at CO2
    issues but after a lot of effort we helped get
    it to look at oil peaking under its in-house TPA
    funding line.
  • Study 'What is the likely peak date for the
    global production of conventional oil?'
  • Started June 2008 Final report July '09.
  • We are part of a group looking at global
    forecasts. (There is a need for much better
    modelling around the world.)

56
World - Conventional oil Mid-point year
2005 Ultimate 2050 1800 Gb
To-date 1999 822 Gb
Peak Discovery 1965 Peak Production
2005 Time-lag 40 years
Theoretical Unconstrained Model
Peak Discovery
High Prices Curb Demand
57
World Volumes of All Hydrocarbons (to scale)
- data in billion barrels of oil (Gb) and oil
equivalent.
58
Quota Wars Reserve Revisions - and
Stationary reserves
59
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