Climate, Energy, and Science Funding

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Climate, Energy, and Science Funding
Science Issues for a New Congress and a New
Administration American Geophysical Union 2008
Annual Meeting

• Holmes Hummel, PhD
• Energy Resources Group
• UC-Berkeley
• Holmes.Hummel_at_berkeley.edu

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Climate, Energy, and Science Funding

• Dynamic Negotiation of Federal Capacity
• Activating Executive Branch Leadership
• High Stakes Scientific Review in Climate Policy
• Agenda Items for Administration Congress

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How is the U.S. federal government currently
committing its resources?
Does not include wars bailouts, stimulus bills
Or anything else on the national credit card
Source FY2006 Federal Discretionary Budget
Business Leaders for Sensible Priorities
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12 Appropriations Bills Update the Budget
Most departments have been operating with a
Continuing Resolutions based on FY 2006.
The FY2009 Continuing Resolution expires March 6,
2009.
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U.S. Distribution of Household Net Worth
16 million
14.7 million
Next 0.5
Top 0.5
9
25
Next 4
25
15
Bottom 80
12
13
Next 5
Next 10
2 million
90
Source State of Working America, 2006 2004 data
in Tables 5.7 and 5.9 real estate included.
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Energy Climate Related Items to Anticipate in
Obama Budgets

• First priority hold budgets together in a time
  of duress
• Energy Independence Security Act reduces the
  deficit by 400M between 2008-2012, if
  implemented (CBO).
• America COMPETES Act science education,
  research
• New Energy for America
• 15B/year for 10 yrs
• on energy agenda,
• more than RD

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Energy Policy Leadership In the Executive Branch
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Sufficiency
9
Sufficiency
10
Sufficiency
Security
11
Sufficiency
Security
Sustainability
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Potential Role for a
National Energy Climate Council
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Science Support Needed
14
Science Support Needed
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Science Support Needed
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Negotiating U.S. GHG Targets
What is the maximum possible (politically
durable) effort for the U.S.?
1990 by 2020
80 below 1990
World Resources Institute, June 2008
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Paths to Stabilizing GHG Concentrations
Hansen
UNFCCC Aspiration
IPCC made it clear in 2007 that the Green Zone is
safer.
It also said that under most equity
interpretations, Annex I countries would need
to reduce emissions 25-40 below 1990 by 2020 to
reach 450ppm CO2-eq.
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Negotiating U.S. GHG Targets
What is the maximum possible (politically
durable) effort for the U.S.?
25 below 1990 by 2020
World Resources Institute, June 2008
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High Stakes Role for Science

• Every cap-and-trade climate policy includes an
  essential scientific review mechanism
• Key design terms
• What is the scope of the review?
• Who does the review?
• How often?
• Is the federal government obligated to take
  action?
• Will politicians reserve the right to ignore the
  scientific review?
• Or will scientists be driving a regulatory
  process of tightening national emission targets?

Scientists Need to Weigh in on Scientific Review
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New Business for the New Administration

• Coordination National Energy Climate Council
• Green economic stimulus
• Implement policies passed by the 110th Congress
• Energy Independence Security Act
• R D
• America COMPETES Act
• Education
• Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy
• Cap and trade GHG policy 80 below 1990 by 2050

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New Business for the New Administration

• New Energy for America
• 150 billion over 10 years to catalyze private
  efforts
• Weatherization for 1 million households each year
• Renewable Electricity Standard 10 by 2012, and
  25 by 2020
• Develop and deploy clean coal technology
• Prioritize construction of the Alaska Natural Gas
  Pipeline
• Raise fuel economy standards
• Low Carbon Fuel Standard
• 1 million plug-in hybrid vehicles by 2015

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Looking Ahead to the 111th Congress

• Green Stimulus
• New Energy Package (Bingaman)
• New Energy for America agenda, plus
• Building Codes
• Apollo-scale energy RD initiative
• Transportation bill reauthorization
• Global Change Research Program reauthorization
• Climate Change
• Cap-and-trade climate policy
• Prepare to ratify a UNFCCC agreement for
  post-2012
• Climate Action Now (US CAN Act) Black carbon,
  registry, fed. target

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Congressional Committees That Must Take Action To
Reach Stabilization
Energy Natural Resources Energy
Commerce Transportation and Infrastructure Science
and Technology Natural Resources Agriculture Fore
ign Affairs Homeland Security Oversight
Government Reform Education Labor Financial
Services Ways Means Budget Appropriations . . .
.
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Science informs Policy Public Engagement builds
Political Durability Maximum Effort required for
Stabilization

• Holmes Hummel, PhD
• Energy Resources Group
• UC-Berkeley
• Holmes.Hummel_at_berkeley.edu
• www.holmeshummel.net/ClimatePolicyDesign