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Global Warming Energy Challenges

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Title: Global Warming Energy Challenges


1
Global WarmingEnergy Challenges
  • RecycleWorks Brown Bag Lecture Series
  • County of San Mateo
  • January 31, 2006

2
Overview
  • Greenhouse effect
  • Historic carbon emissions / CO2 rise
  • Forcing models / temperature predictions
  • Effect of a warming earth (1 degree F)
  • Peak oil / Hubberts peak
  • Future and current energy challenges
  • Energy equity and the road ahead

3
Solar Energy and earths Heat
http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.
html
4
Global Warming - the 20th Century
http//www.mala.bc.ca/earles/ipcc-tar-feb01.htm
5
250 yrs of Carbon Emissions
It took 125 years to burn the first trillion
barrels of oil well burn the next trillion in
less than 30 years why should you care?
6
Rising CO2 over 50 Years
http//earthguide.ucsd.edu/globalchange/keeling_cu
rve/01.html
7
Carbon Emissions and CO2
  • Carbon burned CO2
  • Linear from 1850 to 2000
  • - ppm CO2 2.55 e10-4 M tons C 297 ppm
    (r210099)
  • 50 of carbon goes into atmospheric CO2
  • 33 into the oceans
  • Trend is constant over 150 years is this how
    the biosphere will react over the next 150 years?

A near perfect correlation that predicts ppm CO2
from total carbon burned
8
Projected Energy Demand
http//www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/energy/world/
outlook.html
9
GHG Emissions by Source
10
Future CO2 the Next 30 Yrs
Based on 2 annual growth in carbon emissions
2000 - 2030
11
Global Climate Models (GCM)
  • Ab Initio modeling
  • From first principles
  • Modeling land and sea temps from 1900 - 2000
  • Complexity and data
  • Climate is a dynamic system complex math
  • GISS study
  • 10 year study over oceans
  • Sea temps 7,500 ft depth
  • Satellite data for forcing

12
http//www.grida.no/climate/vital/04.htm
13
Forcing Calculations
Some math is required.
  • Forcing (Watts) atmospheric forcing factor
    multiplied by
  • ln (ppm gas conc. current / ppm gas conc.
    historic)
  • 2) ATM forcing factor for CO2 calculated (est.)
    to be 5.85 watts
  • 3) For 2005, calculation 5.85 W ln (380 ppm
    / 280 ppm) 1.8W
  • 4) For CO2, climate sensitivity 2/3 degree C
    per 1 watt of forcing
  • 5) 25 to 50 years for the climate to respond to
    60 of this forcing

You can model this in Excel and predict
temperatures from ppm CO2
14
Earth Out of Balance
http//www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20050428/
15
Forcing, Predicted Temperature, and Climate Lag,
2000 - 2100
0F - Model built assuming 60 of forcing is felt
in 25 years
16
The Carbon Cycle
  • Why atmospheric CO2 is the last thing on earth
    humans should have interfered with!
  • We are releasing CO2 at one million times the
    rate that earth initially sequestered it at
  • We inserted ourselves in the carbon cycle
  • And are affecting the thermostat of life
  • Earth uses CO2 to help maintain an optimum
    temperature for the biosphere, for 650K years

17
The Thermostat of Life
  • Vostok ice core data show regular and repeating
    cycles of temps and CO2 over last 500,000 years
  • Oscillate between 180 and 280 ppm CO2 and 100 C
  • Hypothesis that earth regulates the temperature
    of the planet through CO2 / greenhouse effect
  • Biosphere maintains a precise level of CO2 for
    life
  • But the biosphere isnt really absorbing our CO2
  • Y intercept of cum. carbon burn / CO2 is 297 ppm
  • http//courses.washington.edu/pcc589/papers/Shackl
    eton2000.pdf

18
Vostok CO2 and Temperature
  • The relationship between CO2 and temperature is
    nearly perfect (r2100 99)
  • However, the casual relationship is the basis for
    significant (expert) controversy
  • Why does this occur?

19
The Vostok Equilibrium
  • Vostok equilibrium
  • 100K year cycles
  • earths orbital eccentricity
  • Sun heats up the planet
  • Biosphere expands
  • CO2 maintains temp
  • Otherwise earth would be very cold 0 degrees F
  • CO2 has not exceeded 280 ppm in the last 500K
    years and 4 major cycles

20
Crux of the Vostok Data
Temperature leads biomass CO2, then CO2 maintains
temperature
21
Just One Degree F
  • These examples will show the affect of warming
    the earth at just one degree F
  • And for less than 50 years!
  • Warming has accelerated in last 20 years
  • The affect of temperature is cumulative
  • Earth takes decades to centuries to react
  • And we still owe an additional degree F!

22
Long Term Warming Effects
Not just increased temperature, but added heat,
for a long, long, time!
23
Consequences of Warming
  • Thinning of polar ice caps
  • Thawing permafrost / release of methane
  • Slowing of the thermohaline cycle
  • Rising sea level, perhaps quickly
  • Extreme weather events
  • Extended regions of drought
  • Extremes of temperature / duration
  • Extremes of storms and hurricanes

All these are consequences of only one degree F
for
24
Storms on the Move
Katrina moving across Florida in late August
2005 finds warm water in the Gulf of Mexico
And grows from a category 1 to a category 5
hurricane in less than 2 days!
25
The Melting North Pole
The North Pole is thinning in area 10 per
decade, and thinning in thickness 1 meter per
decade. At these rates, it may be an open sea as
early as 2030 2050.
http//earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/ClimateClue
s/
26
Arctic Sea Ice Thickness
http//www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/Arcti
c_Warming_ESU.html
27
Thermohaline Cycle
http//www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/om.html
NASA schematic view of ocean circulation.  The
light colored path shows the general movement of
the surface waters and the dark colored path
shows the movement of water at depth. The
numbers show the position of  1. The Gulf Stream
which transports heat from the tropics to
northern Europe. 2. North Atlantic Deep Water
formation which results from strong cooling.  3.
Antarctic Bottom Water formation due to sea
ice production around Antarctica.
28
Antarctica Cracking
29
Calving Ice Shelf Process
Antarctic holds 80 of earths fresh water
Like the Arctic, it moderates the climate
  • Calving at the edge of the ice shelf
  • Shelves hold the main ice flows back
  • As they break, ice flows into the sea
  • Melt water fills the ice crevice
  • Water sinks, crevices expand -
  • Fissuring the shelf into pieces

30
The Larsen B Ice Shelf was the size of Rhode
Island!
31
Greenland Melting
http//www.comcast.net/data/news/photoshow/html/ne
ws/246569.html
32
Retreating Glaciers
http//www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/
33
Sea Level Expansion
  • Sea expands from water molecule changing 0.0002
    in volume for each 0C
  • Over 5,000 to 7,500 meters, it adds up
  • Thermal expansion is 1 2 cm / 10 yrs.
  • But is accelerating to 2.5 cm / decade
  • For every 1 0C, sea expands 1 meter in height -
    sea cannot expand down or out

http//yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/cont
ent/ResourceCenterPublicationsProbability.html
34
Sea Level Rise
http//geongrid.geo.arizona.edu/arcims/website/slr
30mla/viewer.htm
35
Peak Oil After the Crash
http//www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
36
Projected Energy Demand
http//www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/energy/world/
outlook.html
37
World Oil Production History
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_Oil
38
Oil Discovery (3 year average - past and
projected) 1930-2050
http//www.btinternet.com/nlpwessex/Documents/ene
rgycrisis.htm
39
Oil Production Reserves
Data from The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil
Production, Hirsch, 2005
40
Energy Equity
  • Burning oil is burning money!
  • Build an energy infrastructure with equity
  • Solar energy is primary, not alternative!
  • 25 billion economy for million solar roofs
  • Every MW of solar energy creates 24 jobs in
    manufacturing, and 8 for local installers
  • Built in America, by Americans, for America, what
    could be more economic?

http//www.solarelectricpower.org/
41
10 Key Energy Challenges
  • Fuel cells
  • Hydrogen
  • Solar energy
  • Batteries
  • Motors
  • New power grid
  • Low power lighting
  • Insulation materials
  • Safer nuclear power
  • CO2 sequestration

Establishing Technical Leadership in a New Energy
Economy An Apollo style program on a Manhattan
Project Timeline
42
Building a Solar Economy
  • Solar power is a primary, not alternative energy
  • 25 of electricity could be generated by solar in
    2025
  • Solar brings true energy independence from carbon
  • It requires a commitment, not just an investment
    of s
  • Research in newer thin film technology shows
    promise

Our Solar Power Future The US Photovoltaics
Industry Roadmap Through 2030 and beyond
published in 2005
One Million Solar Roofs California, the Solar
State
43
Cars - a Growing Global Problem
44
A New Auto Economy?
  • New types of cars
  • Electric cars
  • Hydrogen cars
  • Hydrogen hybrids
  • Transportation is a key area of growing CO2
  • And one area where we can individually make key
    changes in the CO2 that we each produce

45
A Real Hybrid Vehicle
Gas Electric Synergy Drive - plug-in hybrids
coming soon
46
Flexible Fuel ElectricPlug-in Hybrids
  • 1 KWhr will power this hybrid car about 4 miles
  • Burning natural gas for electricity, will
    generate about 1 lb. of CO2
  • Compare to 2 pounds of CO2 at 40 mpg (petrol)
  • Recharge car at night, when power rates are low.
  • Put power on the grid during the day with solar.

http//www.evworld.com/electrichybrid.cfm
47
A New Electron Economy
  • 1 - 2 trillion for solar energy
  • 1 trillion in a new power grid
  • 2.5 trillion in fuel saving cars
  • 1 trillion in new electric motor and battery
    technology for cars and other appliances
  • Energy needs to join the digital age
  • Networked and distributed power sources

Solar power is an edge of network asset in a
distributed power system
48
Move Differently
  • SolarSegway
  • Range 8 - 12 miles
  • Battery packs can be charged locally (5 hrs)
  • Emission free vehicle
  • Solar panels extra
  • Projected cost of 2,500 in quantity

49
Zero Emission Economy
  • Global population pressure creates a big problem
    in controlling carbon emissions
  • 8 billion people 1.25 tons carbon / person
  • 10 G tons of carbon burned per year
  • 50 more than the 6.6 G tons of carbon today
  • The only solution is zero-emission power
  • Nuclear and solar are the long-term options, and
    significant growth in wind generated power

50
Wind Power Real Power
51
Wind Power Statistics
  • Germany has over 14,000 MW installed
  • North Dakota has only 70 MW installed
  • And the same amount of wind as Germany
  • Midwest has excellent wind resources
  • Europe has made this commitment
  • USA is poised to make similar choices
  • GE and Clipper Wind are two key producers

52
The Complexity of the Problem
  • Several variables
  • Population growth
  • Income rise and development
  • Energy mix (fuel type)
  • Manufacturing vs. service economies
  • China has different challenges than the US
  • Energy driven activities
  • Production, consumption, transportation

53
Global Carbon Profiles
USA 6.0
Canada 4.0
England 2.5
North America
Germany 2.2
Developing World
France 2.0
Europe
Mexico 1.0
China 0.6
Africa India 0.3
Tons of carbon per person in year 2000 average
1.1
54
The Population Problem
8 billion people _at_ 1.25 tons each 10 G tons of
carbon / year That is 50 more carbon emissions
than today!
55
Sense of Urgency, call to Action
  • We are at the end of the oil age
  • Need energy equity in place soon
  • Solar and wind energy are obvious
  • Deployable now and in quantity
  • Need to look at safer nuclear energy
  • To replace coal and gas, augment solar
  • Create hydrogen for transportation fuel
  • Time to market is less than 25 years!

56
From Information to Choices
We can do this, but the clock is running!
57
Where Do We Want to Be?
  • Deciding where we want to be
  • Then planning how to get there
  • Choosing our leaders based on energy policy
    California is a leader
  • Bottom up leadership tipping points
  • 2006 is the year for you to be a leader!

Each one of us must be a leader in this
technology revolution!
58
Disaster or Catastrophe?
Published in  IPCC Third Assessment Report -
Synthesis Report Figure number  9.3
59
What You Can Do
  • Drive less, drive smart
  • Invest in solar energy
  • Conserve on energy use
  • We need to cut CO2 emissions by 80
  • Be deeply aware of the problem
  • This is the most significant problem facing the
    planet over the next 50 to 100 years
  • What we do in the next 25 years is critical!

60
Summary
  • Greenhouse effect carbon cycle
  • Forcing models temperature lag
  • Effect of warming just one degree
  • Peak oil declining energy production
  • Energy Equity and the road ahead
  • Our single biggest challenge
  • Our single biggest opportunity

61
References
  • http//www.realclimate.org/
  • http//www.giss.nasa.gov/
  • http//www.sc.doe.gov/ober/CCRD/model.html
  • http//www.nersc.gov/projects/gcm_data/
  • http//www.solarelectricpower.org/
  • http//www.nrel.gov/
  • http//www.eia.doe.gov/
  • http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
  • http//www.architecture2030.org/

62
Sustainable Silicon Valley
Partnering with businesses, nonprofits, cities
and counties to reduce CO2 emissions in San
Mateo, Santa Clara, Alameda and Santa Cruz
Counties
http//www.sustainablesiliconvalley.org/
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