Title: U.S. Wheat Associates World and U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand
1U.S. Wheat AssociatesWorld and U.S. Wheat
Supply and Demand
2Production 2006/07
- World - 592 MMT, down 5 (28 MMT) from 2005/06
- Problems in nearly all major exporters
- Northern hemisphere
- Exporters
- U.S. drought down 16 (8 MMT)
- Black Sea winterkill down 4 (5 MMT)
- Late season problems in EU down 4 (5 MMT)
- China up 6 (6 MMT)
- North Africa up 21 (3 MMT)
- Southern hemisphere
- Australia down 57 (14 MMT) from 25 MMT
- Argentina 14.2 MMT, 10-year average 14.8
3Consumption and Trade2006/07
- World use down 1 (6 MMT)
- Feed use down 4 (4 MMT), decreases in Europe and
FSU - Food use down 2 MMT, high prices limit growth
- Export outlook
- Up Canada (4 MMT), Argentina (1)
- Down Australian (6 MMT), Black Sea (2), US (4)
- China to EXPORT 2.5 MMT (mostly feed quality)
- Import outlook
- Indian explodes to 6 MMT from 0.3 MMT last year
- Brazil to import 7.5 MMT, top importer this year
- North African imports down 2 MMT
4Stocks and Price Outlook 2006/07
- World ending stocks 121 MMT, down 26 MMT from
last year - 32 (58 MMT) below 10-year average
- Stocks to use ratio at record low 20
- China is a large part of stock drawdown
- U.S. farm gate prices rise
- 4.20 to 4.30/bushel (154-158/MT)
- 3.42 (126/MT) in 2005/06
- World export prices much stronger
- Average U.S. farm gate price, marketing year
weighted average
5Production Outlook 2007/08
- Sharp increase in world plantings
- U.S. winter wheat up 9
- HRW 9, SRW 13, SW 2
- U.S. conditions were average at dormancy
- Recent storms positive, risks remain
- Ice on fields in Kansas
- Cold temperatures in Northern SRW belt
- Recent price rise of competing crops (corn,
barley) may limit expansion of later planted
classes - North American spring wheat acres
6World Production and Use
Source All data is from USDA, World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates, February 9, 2007
release (unless otherwise noted)
7World Production and Use(with 07/08 forecast)
07/08 production forecast International Grains
Council
8Supplies in Top Five Exporting Countries
Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, and
EU-25
9World Wheat Supply and Demand
10World Beginning Stocks
Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada,
Australia, Argentina, and the EU-25
11Global Stocks-to-Use Ratio
Ending stocks
12World Ending Stocks and Price
Prices are marketing year averages2006/07
current year-to-date average
Top 5 Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia,
Argentina and EU-25
13Chinese vs. Rest of the World Ending Stocks
China accounted for 49 of world stocks in
1999/2000, down to 30 this year
14World and U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand
- Major Exporters
- Import Demand
- U.S. Situation by Class
15Canada Situation
16Canada Ending Stocks
17Australia Situation
18Australia Ending Stocks
19Argentina Situation
20Argentina Ending Stocks
21EU-25 Situation
22EU-25 Ending Stocks
23Black Sea Region Situation
- The Black Sea Region includes the Former Soviet
Union, excluding the Baltic States - Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most
important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region
24Black Sea Exports
25Black Sea Ending Stocks
26U.S. Situation
27U.S. Ending Stocks
28U.S. Share of Wheat Export Market
29U.S. Wheat Area and Production
30U.S. Crop Planted Area Comparison
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics
Service
31World CornProduction, Use and Trade
32World SoybeanProduction, Use and Trade
33World WheatProduction, Use and Trade
34World and U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand
- Major Exporters
- Import Demand
- U.S. Situation by Class
35Major World Wheat Importers(from all origins)
36Top 10 Customers for U.S. WheatPrior Marketing
Years 2004/05 vs. 2005/06
37Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat2005/06 vs.
2006/07(year-to-date)
Source USDA FAS export sales report February 8,
2007
38Change in U.S. Wheat Sales2005/06 vs.
2006/07(year-to-date)
39World Wheat Imports
Trend in other importers denoted ( )
40China Wheat Situation
41India Beginning Stocks and Production
42India Net Trade
Net Exports
Net Imports
43World and U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand
- Major Exporters
- Import Demand
- U.S. Situation by Class
44U.S. Hard Red Winter
45(No Transcript)
46U.S. Hard Red Spring
47U.S. Soft Red Winter
48U.S. White
49U.S. Durum
50U.S. Winter Wheat Planted Acreage
- 2007/08 estimates USDA, January 12, 2007
- 9 increase HRW 9, SRW 13, SW 2
51U.S. HRS planted area down 7, durum up
- 2007/08 forecast average of trade estimates
- HRS acreage back to average
52U.S. Wheat Sales by Class(year-to-date)
Source USDA FAS export sales report February 8,
2007
53U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks by Class
54U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand
55U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand
56U.S. FOB Gulf Prices
57U.S. FOB PNW Prices
58SRW and Soft White Prices
- SW currently at 0.53/bu (19/MT) premium to SRW
- The highest premium since October 2002
- In October 2006, SRW was 0.61/bu (22/MT) more
expensive than SW
59U.S. Gulf Basis Prices
60U.S. PNW Basis Prices
61Ocean Freight Rates for Grains
62Summary
- Prices strengthen for all classes
- 2006/07 Global production down
- Hard wheat carry-in supplies tight
- Ample soft wheat supplies
- 2007/08 winter wheat production to climb
- Corn, barley compete with spring wheat
- Stocks to fall in all exporting countries
- World stocks-to-use ratio to historic low 20
- World trade patterns shift
- India imports 6 MMT
- Australia, Black Sea, U.S. exports fall
- U.S. wheat export share to fall from 24 to 22