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Modeling Airport Ground Transportation Emissions

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Shuttle buses, shared-ride vans, taxis, rental cars. Implement employee trip reduction programs ... Rental Car. Drop-off. Park. Short-Term. Long-Term. Off ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Modeling Airport Ground Transportation Emissions


1
Modeling Airport Ground Transportation Emissions
  • Geoffrey D. Gosling
  • National Center of Excellence for Aviation
    Operations Research
  • University of California at Berkeley
  • Presentation to the
  • Airport Air Quality Symposium
  • San Diego, California, March 1-2, 2001

2
Presentation Outline
  • Role of ground transportation in overall airport
    related emissions
  • Existing models and analysis techniques
  • Issues in modeling ground access vehicle
    emissions
  • Assessing the impacts of proposed mitigation
    measures
  • Modeling changes in ground access mode use

3
Ground Transportation Share of Total
Emissions LAX Unmitigated No Action/No Project
(tons/year)
4
Role of Ground Transportation in Overall Airport
Related Emissions
  • Share of total emissions expected to decline over
    time
  • Emission levels responsive to airport policies
    and programs
  • Aircraft emissions outside airport control
  • Local concentrations of pollutants
  • Curbfront areas access roadway intersections
  • Potential for emission reduction credits

5
Existing Models and Analysis Techniques
  • Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System
  • Component models
  • Mobile5a
  • CALINE3
  • General purpose transportation models
  • EMFAC, PART5, CAL3QHCR
  • Aggregate analysis
  • Ratios of emissions to VMT
  • California ARB cost-effectiveness analysis methods

6
Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System
  • Designed to model on-airport facilities
  • Roadway and curbfront segments
  • Segment location
  • User inputs traffic volume
  • Parking lot and similar facilities
  • Location, size and shape (rectangular components)
  • User inputs vehicle trips and average trip length
  • Vehicle fleet composition
  • Assumes a typical mix of vehicle types

7
Issues in Modeling Ground Access Vehicle Emissions
  • Extent of trip to consider
  • On-airport vs. origin-destination
  • Effect of trip characteristics on hot soaks and
    cold starts
  • Drop-off/pick-up vs. park for duration of air
    trip
  • Effect of roadway and curbfront congestion
  • Impact of mitigation measures on fleet
    composition and trip characteristics

8
Assessing the Impacts of Proposed Mitigation
Measures
  • Range of mitigation measures to consider
  • Nature of impact on emissions
  • Use of vehicles producing less emissions
  • Change in access/egress travel patterns
  • Need to predict behavioral response
  • Airport users
  • Ground transportation service providers
  • Cost-effectiveness considerations

9
Range of Potential Mitigation Measures
  • Convert vehicle fleets to alternative fuels
  • Shuttle buses, shared-ride vans, taxis, rental
    cars
  • Implement employee trip reduction programs
  • Improve links to transit facilities
  • Traffic engineering / management measures on
    adjacent roadways
  • Develop off-airport terminals (park-and-ride)
  • Airport access tolls raise parking rates

10
Modeling Changes in Ground Access Mode Use
  • Choice of access mode and service providers
    determines effect of mitigation measures
  • Vehicle trips and traffic composition
  • Roadway segments and facilities used
  • Complex choice process
  • Multiple modes and services
  • Choices influenced by trip characteristics
  • User costs influence choice process and cost of
    implementing mitigation measures

11
Multinomial Logit Choice Model
where
Typical utility structure
U j a0 a1travel time a2wait time
a3cost
12
Nested Logit Mode Choice Structure
Auto
Door-to-Door
Scheduled Bus
Public Transit
Rental Car
Shared-Ride Van
Off-Airport Terminal
Drop-off
Taxi
Access
Park
Limousine
Drop-off
Park
Lot
Taxi
Short-Term
Transit
Long-Term
Airport Bus
Off-Airport
Stop
13
Implementation Considerations
  • Absence of industry-standard models
  • Several regions have developed their own models
  • Models need to be configured and calibrated for
    each application
  • Very data intensive
  • Airport ground transportation services
  • Regional transportation system
  • Broad application to airport ground
    transportation planning

14
Conclusions
  • Procedures and models for estimating emissions
    and dispersion for a given traffic volume and
    characteristics well defined
  • Assessment of the likely effect of proposed
    mitigation measures not so well defined
  • Need ability to predict user response to changes
  • Emission reduction assumptions need to be based
    on behavioral choice modeling
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