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Adaptation to the Consequences of Climate Change Process: progress achieved and capacity building ne

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Title: Adaptation to the Consequences of Climate Change Process: progress achieved and capacity building ne


1
Adaptation to the Consequences of Climate Change
Process progress achieved and capacity building
needed Budapest, 19-20 November, 2007 EEA
Activities on Adaptation progress achieved and
cooperation ahead Michaela Schaller,
ETC/ACC André Jol Stéphane Isoard, European
Environment Agency
2
European Environment Agency
The EEA mission
  • The European Environment Agency is the EU body
    dedicated to providing sound, independent
    information on the environment
  • We are a main information source for those
    involved in developing, adopting, implementing
    and evaluating environmental policy, and also the
    general public

3
EEAs mandate
  • To help the Community and member countries make
    informed decisions about improving the
    environment, integrating environmental
    considerations into economic policies and moving
    towards sustainability
  • To coordinate the European environment
    information and observation network (Eionet)
  • About 300 national institutions
  • National focal points
  • European topic centres
  • National reference centres
  • Other institutions

4
EEA member and collaborating countries
Member countries Collaborating countries
5
  • EEAs clients
  • Institutions and governments
  • European Commission, Parliament, Council, EEA
    member countries
  • Influencers
  • NGOs, business, media, advisory groups,
    scientists, debaters
  • General public
  • EEAs networking partners
  • Eionet partners in 32 member countries
    collaborating countries (NFPs, NRCs)
  • Commission services (DG ENV, TREN, AGRI,
    Eurostat, JRC)
  • International organisations (UNEP, UNECE, WHO,
    OECD)

http//www.eea.europa.eu
6
EEAs main Products on Impacts, Vulnerability and
Adaptation to Climate Change (Past)
  • EEA Report No 2/2004 Impact of Europes changing
    climate
  • Review of scenario exercises in the context of cc
    adaptation in Europe (CASE background study)
  • EEA Technical Report No 7/2005 Vulnerability and
    adaptation to climate change in Europe
  • EEA Technical Report No 2/2007 Climate change
    and water adaptation issues
  • (Europes Environment. The fourth Assessment,
    2007)

7
Key European CC vulnerabilities (biogeographical
regions)
8
River flooding events 1998-2005
  • About 100 (river) floods more than 700
    fatalities, a million people affected and 25
    billion EUR in insured economic losses

Data-source EEA, 2006, unpublished
9
Water Quantitiy
River catchments affected by flooding 1998-2005
  • One-third of the pan-European population lives in
    countries where water resources are under
    substantial pressure.
  • Over the past five years, the region has suffered
    more than 100 major floods.

10
Vernagt glacier (Austria) lost more than 50 of
mass between 1912 and 2003
Source Global Outlook for Ice and Snow, UNEP,
2007
11
Source Zemp, 2006
12
Projected shifts in water runoff in the Alps
(increase in winter, decrease in summer)
Source Beniston, 2005
13
Projected changes in water runoff (decrease in
south/east, increase in north/north west)
Source PESETA project, PRUDENCE IPCC SRES A2
high emission scenario (change mean 2071-2100
relative to 1961-1990)
14
Projected increase in heat-related deaths in
Southern Europe
Source PESETA project, PRUDENCE IPCC SRES A2
high emission scenario (change mean 2071-2100
relative to 1961-1990)
15
Projected local extinction of plants in Southern
Europe
Source ATEAM, 2004, IPCC A2 scenario
16
Key relevant EU research programmes
  • PRUDENCE/ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE based predictions of
    climate change and their impacts)
  • ADAM (Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies
    Supporting European Climate Policy)
  • ALARM (Assessing LArge scale Risks for
    biodiversity with tested Methods)
  • BRANCH (Biodiversity Requires Adaptation in
    Northwest Europe under a CHanging climate)
  • CarboEurope (Assessment of the European
    Terrestrial Carbon Balance)
  • CIRCLE (Climate Impact Research Coordination for
    a Larger Europe, European Research Area)
  • CIRCE (Climate Change and Impact Research the
    Mediterranean Environment)
  • CLAVIER (Climate Change and VariabilityImpact on
    Central and Eastern Europe)
  • COST 725 (Establishing a European Phenological
    Data Platform for Climatological Applications)
  • ESPACE (European Spatial Planning Adapting to
    Climate Events)
  • Euro-limpacs (Evaluating the Impacts of Global
    Change on European Freshwater Ecosystems)
  • FLOODSITE (Integrated Flood Risk Analysis and
    Management Methodologies)
  • GRACE (Groundwater Resources and Climate Change
    Effects)
  • PACE (Permafrost and Climate in Europe)
  • SCENES (Water Scenarios for Europe and for
    Neighbouring States)

17
Examples of national assessments
  • Finland FINADAPT (Assessing the adaptive
    capacity of the Finnish environment and society
    under a changing climate)
  • Germany KomPass (Competence Centre on Climate
    Change Impacts and Adaptation)
  • Hungary VAHAVA Changing (VÁltozás) Impact
    (HAtás) Response (VÁlaszadás)
  • Netherlands CcSP (Climate Changes Spatial
    Planning)
  • Portugal SIAM (Scenarios, Impacts and Adaptation
    Measures)
  • Spain ECCE (Assessment of the Preliminary
    Impacts in Spain due to Climate Change)
  • Sweden SWECLIM (Swedish Regional Climate
    Modelling Programme)
  • UK UKCIP (Climate Impact Programme)
  • All countries communications to UNFCCC

18
Current adaptation measures
  • Preparation of national adaptation strategies
    Denmark, Germany, Finland, France, Netherlands,
    Portugal, Spain, UK
  • Sectoral actions mainly in areas with a long
    tradition of dealing with climate extremes such
    as flood defence, water scarcity and droughts
  • Water sector- recent focus of EEA study (with
    German Presidency) with a country survey very
    high awareness, measures implemented, planned or
    underway from technical engineering, building
    codes, spatial planning, improved forecasting,
    improved landscape management, behaviour
    campaigns, new economic instruments

19
Recent droughts and flooding range of actions
  • Droughts
  • New legislation France, Portugal
  • New water savings standards, recycling Cyprus,
    UK
  • New infrastructure, desalinisation plants
    Cyprus, Spain, UK
  • Effective economic instruments Germany
  • Floods
  • Emergency responses, improved forecasting- all
  • Self- protection and flood awareness
  • Spatial planning and land management
  • Hard and soft engineering

20
Probability
Possible practical steps
High Risk (priority)
4
3
  • Scope and review impacts (and opportunities) -
    mapping exercise
  • Simple risk analysis to assess the probability
    and the consequences
  • Adaptation responses considered and appraised
    (decision making)
  • Ad. Plan (raise awareness, strengthen capacity,
    incorporate in policy / operations)
  • Strategic broad corporate plans, policies and
    management strategies
  • Operational specific services that each
    organisation provides
  • Functional as applies to the internal business
    processes and units
  • Consultation throughout
  • Review act (learn) act again
  • Number of organisations involved from scoping
    to detailed analysis (hazard, vulnerability and
    exposure )

2
Low Risk
1
4
3
2
1
Magnitude
Source Paul Watkiss
21
Challenges what is needed next?
  • Climate-proof EU policies and Directives
    (Agriculture, Industry, Energy, Health, Water,
    Marine, Ecosystems/Biodiversity, Forestry)
  • Integrate adaptation into EUs funding programmes
    (Structural, Cohesion and Solidarity funds,
    Agriculture and Rural Development funds)
  • Consider new policies, e.g. spatial planning as
    an integration tool
  • Integrate adaptation in EU external relations
    (developing countries)
  • Enhancing the knowledge base, e.g. regarding
    regional scale and information on costs
  • Involvement of civil society, business sector
    organisations and enhanced information exchange
  • Exploit opportunities for innovative adaptation
    technologies

22
Future Activities EEA (ETC/ACC) CC Impacts
Adaptation
  • Provide support to EU policy development on
    adaptation (e.g. follow-up of Green Paper)
  • Continue networking with main clients and
    partners, e.g.
  • 1st EIONET Workshop on CC vulnerability, impacts
    adaptation (27-28 November 2007)
  • Publish indicator based assessment report on
    impacts of cc in Europe in 2008 (update of 2004)
    update core set cc impact indicators
  • Develop adaptation indicators scenarios
  • Develop approaches to integrate cc impacts
    adaptation issues in other main policy areas
  • Further work on costs of adaptation, exploring
    approaches to include country specific information

23
  • Thank you for your attention!

24
European Topic Centres (ETC)
  • Consortia of institutions across EEA member
    countries dealing with a specific environmental
    topic and contracted by EEA to perform specific
    activities as defined in the EEA work programme
  • ETC Water
  • ETC Land Use Spatial Information
  • ETC Resource Waste Management
  • ETC Air Climate Change
  • ETC Biological Diversity

25
Why is adaptation important ?
  • Climate change cannot be totally avoided
  • Anticipatory adaptation can be more effective and
    less costly than retrofitting or emergency
    adaptation
  • Climate change may be more rapid and pronounced
    than currently known
  • Immediate benefits from adaptation to current
    climate variability and extreme events
  • Avoid maladaptive policies and practices

26
Some issues with adaptation
Complexities
Challenges
  • Timing pro-active vs. reactive ?
  • Cost-effective adaptation what is proportionate
    and efficient?
  • Ancillary effects positive and negative?
  • Differences in scale, from EU to local
  • Integration consistency?
  • Appropriate adaptation stakeholder-led, rather
    than enforced
  • Cross-sectoral
  • Uncertainty different confidence for average
    temperature vs. extremes
  • Determined by future socio-economic development
  • Ownership - different actors (builder vs.
    operator)
  • Time-scales investing now for benefits in the
    (far) future
  • Inequalities (impacts and adaptive capacity)

Source Paul Watkiss
27
EEA is member of the advisory group of the
following projects
  • ADAM (Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies
    Supporting European Climate Policy 6th FP
    2006-2009)
  • SCENES (Water Scenarios for Europe and for
    neighbouring States 6th FP 2007-2010)
  • ALARM (Assessing LArge scale Risks for
    biodiversity with tested Methods, 6th FP)
  • GEMS (Global and regional Earth-system
    (Atmosphere) Monitoring using Satellite and
    in-situ data, 6th FP)
  • Euro-limpacs (Evaluating the Impacts of Global
    Change on European Freshwater Ecosystems, 6th FP)
  • CarboEurope-IP (Assessment of the European
    Terrestrial Carbon Balance, 6th FP)
  • CIRCLE (Climate Impact Research Coordination for
    a Larger Europe, European Research Area
    (ERA-Net), 6th FP)
  • CcSP (Climate changes Spatial Planning,
    Netherlands research programme)

28
Projected crop yield decrease in Southern Europe,
increase in Northern Europe (2 models)
Source PESETA project, PRUDENCE IPCC SRES A2
high emission scenario (change mean 2071-2100
relative to 1961-1990)
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