Australias road transport, emissions, technology and economics' Abstract Australians buy about a mil

1

• Australias road transport, emissions, technology
  and economics.AbstractAustralians buy about a
  million road vehicles per year, which is less
  than 2 of the worlds production. Less than
  one-third of the cars we buy are made in
  Australia. There are about 10 million cars and
  trucks on our roads. 
• Were an energy-rich country were a wealthy
  nation the oil we use is about 80 from
  Australian oil wells and we have abundant
  supplies of natural gas.  This means that
  Australia is not the country most likely to lead
  the world in fuel efficiency.
• There are many alternative fuels and technologies
  available today and there will be many more in
  the future, but what can we realistically expect
  over the next 30 years?

by David Lamb
2
Is the World Running out of Oil?
Bureau of Transport Regional Economics Report
Is the World Running Out of Oil?
Source http//www.oilcrisis.com/magoon/
3
Geoscience Australia forecasts for Australian oil
production
29 GL/a
1 barrel 159 Litres 1000 barrels per day
58 ML per year
4
Abares projection to 2030 - Usage Growth
Percentage
Source Abare Australian energy national
state projections to 2029-30
5
Abares Projected Growth to 2030 by Fuel
Source Abare Australian energy national
state projections to 2029-30
6
Abares Projection to 2030 Production and
Imports
Source Abare Australian energy national
state projections to 2029-30
7
APPEA forecasts for Australian oil production and
consumption
29GL/a
8
Oil prices 2004-2006
9
Consumer and Industry Response
Not buying large petrol guzzling SUVs!
http//bioage.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/phot
os/uncategorized/fullsizesuvsalesapr061.png
10
Pollution as defined in the mid-20th Century
11
CO2 and global temperature
CO2
ºC
12
IEA predicts CO2 emissions in OECD countries will
double by 2030
13
Projected CO2 concentrations using IPCC storylines
14
The rising Cost of Major Climate Events
Source Zurichree.com
15
Sources of emissions - Australia
15
Transport energy use currently accounts for
around 15 of Australias net greenhouse gas
emissions in (terms of CO2 equivalent). (In 2000
direct greenhouse gas emissions from transport
end-use were 71.7 million tonnes (of CO2
equivalent)).
Note USA transport emissions are 28 of total
USA emissions. California 58
16
Greenhouse gas emissions Australian transport
17
Greenhouse gas emissions trends Australian
transport
Petrol 66 g CO2/MJ Diesel 69.7 g CO2/MJ
18
(No Transcript)
19
Passenger vehiclesAustralia 2002
20
Who is using the 12 billion litres of oil each
day?
21
Fuel consumption targets
22
Short term reduction in GHG
with reduced reliance on oil -according to
International Energy Agency

• Improve rated fuel economy of new cars
• Reduce vehicle in-use fuel consumption
• Reduce vehicle travel
• Increase use of alternative fuels
• Improve freight transport efficiency.

23
Using Ethanol as an example, this illustrates
24
GHG comparison of ethanol vs ULP -
25
Room for improvement
In suburban cycle 87 energy lost versus 13
converted to motion
Aero 3
Drivetrain 6
Accessory 2
13 Motion (aero, braking rolling)
Idle 17
Rolling 4
Engine 62
Braking 6
26
Alternative Technologies
27
Alternative Fuels
30 40 years!
28
The Road to the Zero-emission Vehicle Hydrogen
Fuel Cells.

• Issues
• Durability
• Cold start
• 3. Power density
• 4. Affordability

5. Renewable Hydrogen
6. On-board H2 storage
29
Hybrid Vehicle Systems
30
CSIRO Automotive Technologies
In partnership with Holden the ECOmmodore, a
parallel hybrid vehicle.
With aXcess Australia, a series hybrid vehicle.
A Research Partner in the CRC for Advanced
Automotive Technology
31
Electric Machine Design Switched Reluctance
Motors

• The Science and Challenges
• Simple in concept optimal design and control
  only possible with computers, microprocessors and
  power electronics
• Magnetic circuit is non-linear (tooth corners
  backing iron saturate)
• Non-sinusoidal flux, voltage and current
  waveforms
• 3-D effects dominant in non-aligned position
• Requires rotor position sensor
• Timing of energisation and the applied voltage
  depends upon output torque and speed
• Optimisation for combined motoring/generating
  especially tricky

32
Energy Storage Technologies

• Targeting improved specific energy and power for
  batteries and supercapacitors
• New energy storage devices for HEVs and FCVs
• UltraBattery - is a hybrid storage device, which
  combines an asymmetric capacitor and a lead-acid
  battery in one unit cell, without extra
  electronic control
• Improved Symmetric and Asymmetric (Hybrid)
  supercapacitors for high power and energy
  storage
• Lithium-metal battery for energy storage
  durability

33
The Transition to Hydrogen
100/bbl by 2050 results
2040-2070
34

35
The Road to the Zero-emission Vehicle

2045
2005
36
The Path to very fuel-efficient and almost
zero-emission transport
Fuel cell cars trucks with renewable hydrogen
All-electric Plug-in With small engine backup
Fuel cell bus
Hybrid car
Battery/supercapacitor technology
Fuel cell technology
Vital to offset oil scarcity, but reducing in
value as electric or fcvs come on stream
Unlikely to withstand competition from other
technology investment
37
Conclusions

• Oil-based future is uncertain in the long term
  but vital in the short and medium term
• Climate change is a critical issue
• Affordable, reliable fuel cell cars trucks are
  a long way off
• Interim alternative fuels are vital and there
  should be a national plan
• Hybrids are a good way to go for now and later
• The all-electric car may prove so attractive that
  carrying hydrogen around will be unnecessary.
  Engines likely to become smaller as they become
  more the top-up power source
• The transport dilemma is serious (but clean
  electrical energy is even more serious)
• Australia has a unique set of circumstances and
  cannot afford to be a follower
• A national roadmap is vital.