UNOCHA Report on Risk Assessment and Mitigation Measures for Natural and ConflictRelated Hazards in

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UN-OCHA Report on Risk Assessment and Mitigation
Measures for Natural- and Conflict-Related
Hazards in Asia-Pacific UNISDR 2009 Global
Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction

• Carl B. Harbitz
• Norwegian Geotechnical Institute /
• International Centre for Geohazards

Coastal and Climate Hazards ISDR-ESCAP
Consultation Meeting on Priorities for the Indian
Ocean and South-East Asia Bangkok 17-18 September
2009
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Natural and Conflict related hazards in
Asia-Pacific OCHA Project goals

• Develop hazard maps that show geographical
  hotspot areas for single hazards and for
  multi-hazards on regional (sub-national) level,
• Make estimates of the exposed population to
  selected hazards,
• Develop index or indices that attempt to rank the
  countries in terms of risk level, and
• Make recommendations for mitigation measures in
  terms of how vulnerability can be reduced and/or
  how coping capacity could be improved.

Loss of life from natural hazards in Asia
amounted 2/3 of the total global mortality due to
natural hazards 1980-2000 (adpc)
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Earthquake

• Earthquake is the most potentially dangerous
  natural threat in urban areas.
• During the past few years, two of the most
  catastrophic earthquakes in history have occurred
  in the region covered by this study
• Pakistan in October 2005
• Sichuan, China in May 2008

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Earthquake intensity map for Asia-Pacific derived
from the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program
GSHAP maps
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GRUMP Population density (per km2) in the study
area in 2007
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Population exposure to earthquake in Asia-Pacific

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Hazard map for Asia Pacific
Tsunami hazard map for Asia-Pacific
gt10 m
5-20 m
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Potential number of people exposed (2000)
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Other natural hazards assessed

• Earthquakes
• Tsunamis
• Floods (and storm surge)
• Tropical cyclones
• Landslides
• Drought

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Trends in Armed Conflict, 19462007

• Armed conflict - State vs. state, or state vs.
  organized non-state organization
• - Clearly stated issue of incompatibility
  (territory or government)
• - At least 25 battle deaths in a calendar year

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Likelihood of conflict prevalence
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Civil conflict hazard map for Asia-Pacific
Asian countries accounted for 1/3 of all
battle-related casualties during the past 25
years (PRIO)
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Sub-National Conflict Hazard
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Map of coping capacity index for Asia-Pacific
countries

• Based on existing indicators and data
  questionnaires
• Combined CC index focused on factors that are
  consatnt across hazards at national level

Coping capacity was essential in designing the
risk mitigation strategies
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Composite national risk indicator for earthquake,
cyclone, flood, landslide, tsunami, drought and
civil conflict

• A risk indicator for each country was defined as
  a function of
• Ratio of the exposed population to the total
  population for each hazard.
• Ratio of fatalities caused by each hazard during
  the period 1980-2007 to the population exposed to
  that hazard.
• Coping capacity index.
• Importance factors assigned to each hazard based
  on judgement.

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Risk indicators for ten countries in Asia-Pacific
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Risk indicators for ten countries in Asia-Pacific
Percent contribution of different hazards to risk
index
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Recommendations for risk mitigation measures

• Pillar 1 Identify and locate the risk areas, and
  quantify the hazard and the risk
• Pillar 2 Implement structural and non-structural
  risk mitigation measures, including early warning
  systems
• Pillar 3 Strengthen national coping capacity
• Should focus on institutions dealing with risks
  and disaster situations in the following four
  policy fields
• Risk assessment and communication
• Risk mitigation (laws, rules and interventions to
  reduceexposure and vulnerability to hazards)
• Disaster preparedness, warning and response
• Recovery enhancement

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Concluding Remarks

• A multi-hazard risk indicator should somehow
  account for the various components of risk
• How often does a particular hazard occur?
• What is the intensity or magnitude of the
  expected hazard?
• How important is a particular hazard compared to
  other hazards being considered?
• Who or what are the elements at risk?
• What is the vulnerability of the elements at
  risk?
• How well can the community cope with the
  consequences?
• It seems that it is feasible to develop
  meaningful multi-hazard relative risk
  indicator(s) on national level. Doing the same on
  sub-national level would be more challenging.

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The report is presented in three different
formats for different users

• Summary and Recommendations document
• For governments, international organisations,
  policy makers
• Main body Seven chapters that provide technical
  information for disaster risk reduction policy
  makers, practitioners and researchers
• Identifies the risk includes causes, trends,
  effects, means. Focus DRR
• Chapter 2 Seven hazards, multi-hazard and risk
• NGI Landslides and tsunamis
• Appendices available in CD-Rom
• For specialists encourages new research
  feedback to future iterations of the ISDR Global
  Assessment Report

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Background for NGIs collaboration with UN/ISDR

• The two projects shared data and models
• UNEP / GRID-Europe did the cyclone and flood
  hazard assessment for NGIs project for OCHA
• NGI did the landslide and tsunami hazard
  assessment for the Global Assessment Report

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Landslides Landslide risk is often
underestimated because landslides are usually not
separated from other natural hazard triggers in
natural disaster databases.
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Landslide hazard index

• Defined using six parameters
• Slope
• Geological condition
• Soil moisture condition
• Vegetation cover
• Precipitation
• Seismic condition
• Population data for exposure
• Mortality data for risk

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Landslide exposure and risk

• Observed mortality in landslides triggered by
  high precipitation is approximately six times
  higher than in landslides triggered by
  earthquakes.
• The risk model therefore focuses on precipitation
  triggered landslides.
• Exposure has been calculated for both kinds of
  landslides.

Landslide risk
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Overview of approach for tsunami hazard assessment

• Establish the tsunami hazard based on today's
  knowledge
• Share information with other leading
  international organisations
• Perform computations in hotspot areas where
  information is lacking
• Present
• Shoreline distribution of wave heights
• Shoreline distribution of exposed population
• Total exposed population country by country

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Global Tsunami Hazard
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Population exposed to Tsunami Risk
World-wide, about 14 mill. people are exposed to
tsunami risk
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Mortality risk accumulated for tropical cyclones,
floods, earthquakes, and landslides
Drought risk is a major gap (mortality risk is
underestimated in some regions)
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Investing today for a safer tomorrow

• Conclusions and recommendations
• The imperative for urgent action- A 20-point
  plan to reduce risk
• Global action to reduce risk- climate change
  mitigation and trade policy
• Policy frameworks for risk reducing development-
  addressing the underlying risk drivers
• An approach based on partnership- support
  ongoing initiatives
• Effective risk reduction governance- Hazard
  monitoring, information, cost-benefit analyses,
  implementation, EWS, risk transfer/insurance
• Investing today for a safer tomorrow- cost of
  risk-reducing development, additional costs of
  risk reduction considerations into investment,
  costs of building the risk reduction governance
  frameworks and the capacity

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References

• UNISDR 2009 GAR report on disaster risk
  reductionwww.preventionweb.net/gar09/
• CD Appendices, quantitative data used
• UN-OCHA reportNGI (2009) Risk assessment and
  mitigation measures for natural and conflict
  related hazards in Asia-Pacific.NGI report no.
  20071600-1.
• ch_at_ngi.no

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