The London Plan A tale of two Mayors

1
The London PlanA tale of two Mayors?

• Dr Helen Hill
• December 2009

2
A tale of two Mayors?

• Does Boris have different priorities?
•   No major difference in vision except crime
  and safety more prominent a central pillar of
  Boris Johnsons Mayoralty, clear from his vision
  for London  
• Families in safety
• Ever safer parks and transport
• Both
• Improve quality of life - and enhanced prosperity
  
• for Londoners
• Tackle social and economic exclusion
• Sustainability
• Infrastructure transport
• Long-term economic growth
• London Plan - to set the framework to enable this
  to happen

(Evening Standard, 11/11/09)
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Londons Economy Boris and KenDemand and
supply of office space - London Review
Panel - Strategic employment locations (e.g.
Croydon)Arts Culture Creative
IndustriesImproving ICT InfrastructureKnowledge
Transfer and FE/HE TourismEmerging Green
Economies SustainabilitySkills and Employment
Opportunities for all - LSEB - low skills
- barriers to employment e.g. BAME and
childcare priorities
Boris Retail Diverse small shops
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Have the circumstances changed?

• Politics is obscuring economics and will
  continue to do some for some
• considerable time (post-Election 2010)
• Recession/Recovery and fiscal policy - both pre
  and post-Election danger for
• London in terms of investment - Crossrail and
  London Underground
• Structural investment that business needs the
  government central,
• regional, local - to deliver
• Mayor recognises strong natural population growth
  in London, coupled
• with immigration (despite national level changes)
  means likely Londons
• population will continue to grow, reaching 8.89m
  by 2013 (from 7.6m now)
• So London is full huge impact on transport ,
  public services, leisure services
• and housing

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What does business want?

• Of the following quality of life issues, which do
  you think has the greatest impact
• on Londons attractiveness as a business
  location?

(LCCI/ComRes, London Business Leaders Panel
(LBLP), November 2009)
6
Of the following corporate environment issues,
which do you think has the greatest impact on
Londons attractiveness
(LCCI/ComRes, LBLP, November 2009)
7
Over all, which are the most important in
determining Londons attractiveness as a business
location?
(LCCI/ComRes, LBLP, November 2009)
8
InfrastructureOver 85 per cent of LCCI members
and over 96 per cent of ICE members consider
London's infrastructure to be very or somewhat
important in encouraging businesses to locate in
the capital (LCCI/ICE, Engineering London's
Success, December 2009)
Infrastructure
Infrastructure
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Confidence in forward planning in terms of
future capacity the Victorians and the Tube

• Transport glue that binds the City if it does
  not deliver, nor will any other
• policy or strategy
• Reliable/efficient
• Safe
• Capacity room to move
• Well connected within and out of London (UK and
  international)
• Efficient in terms of planning and timely
  construction

10

• LCCI transport and infrastructure priorities
• London Underground/Overground upgrades
• Crossrail 1 (and 2)
• Airport Capacity Heathrow R3 versus Thames
  Estuary Airport
•  
• High speed rail
• Improved connectivity in outer London
• Completion of Thameslink upgrade
• Minimum disruption to road network
• London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games and
  their legacy
• Social and affordable housing
• (not ranked in priority order)

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• Not forgetting the less attractive Cinderella
  services
• London Tideway Tunnels
• Sufficient water and energy provision dont let
  the lights go out!
• Improved ICT infrastructure provision to improve
  working life and
• quality of life
• Data transfer from London to UK and international
  markets
• Solutions include flexible working to reduce
  transport congestion
• Retrofitting and commitment to tackling effects
  of climate change cross
• party priority but for Boris and for Ken
  because this is an opportunity for
• London to accommodate expansion of green business
  sector Mayors Green
• Enterprise Districts in Thames Gateway

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• London Plan does refer to the need for
  partnerships to lobby for
• greater investment more revenue raising powers
  innovative
• approaches such as tax increment financing
• Large scale convention centre capacity in or
  around CAZ -
• both Mayors have championed this 
• Boris sees business tourism as a priority which
  is good
• how do we get it back?

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Competitiveness

• Mayors role is to use the bully-pulpit with
  central government and Europe
• Mayor has been praised by business community for
  speaking out against 50
• pence tax and central London being hardest hit
  by business rate increases
• and now tax increment finance initiatives
• And in Europe the AIFM proposal to clamp down
  on hedge funds/private
• equity houses
•  

14
Mayors work overseas is important to the
business community LCCI campaigned for Boris to
save Kens offices overseas  London firms
clearly believe that Londons international
offices are important and offer good value for
money 67 per cent of LCCI companies supported
the GLAs policy of operating offices in India
and China (LCCI/ComRes, LBLP, June
2008) Closing the offices in India and China as
part of a cost-cutting exercise would have been
short-sighted and sent entirely the wrong signals
to potential investors and importers in two of
Londons most important potential markets If
the Mayor is not out there promoting London,
someone else will be promoting New York, Paris,
or Sydney instead - again this is a priority for
both Boris and Ken   These areas of
competitiveness encroach on MTS and EDS, but
cannot look at these in isolation as Mayor
recognises
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Private sector central to success of London
recognised by Mayor London Plan is based on
London experiencing a cyclical recovery
post-recession, followed by longer-term positive
job growth thereafter A city with an economy
as dependent upon the private sector as London
also needs growth to ensure its fabric receives
the public investment it requires. If it does
not, London will not be able to go on making a
significant net contribution to the national
exchequer. No reason why London will not
continue to grow and continue to make this
contribution Londons net contribution to the
UK is between 14.3bn and 19.4bn(LSE/City of
London Corporation Londons Place in the UK
Economy 2009-2010)  4.68m jobs in 2007, rising
to 5.45m by 2031 an increase on 750,000 jobs
 Business and financial services will make up
38 of the new jobs 
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Where will the jobs be? Employment has grown
fastest in central and inner London Outer
London may not be realising its full potential in
contributing to Londons success? Role of Outer
London Commission (OLC) to support outer London
in contributing to its own and London plcs
success (LCCI representation on OLC)
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• Londons Economy
• London Plan complements EDS and providing the
  basis for continued
• growth and economic development is a key theme of
  the Plan
• Encourage a strong and diverse economy
• Provide suitable work space
• Drive Londons transition to a low carbon economy
• Promote OL as an attractive location for national
  government and business
• Support the distinctive and crucial contribution
  to Londons economic success made by central
  London and its specialist clusters of economic
  activity
• Sustain the continuing regeneration of inner
  London and redress its persistent concentration
  of deprivation
• Emphasise the need for greater recognition of the
  importance of enterprise and innovation
• Promote London as a suitable location for
  European and international agencies and
  businesses we support Mayors (and Lord
  Mayors) promotion overseas - incredibly
  important
•  

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Transport Connectivity  MTS
but included in London Plan Sustainable
transport methods important to both
Mayors Car dependency must be reduced in favour
of public transport, cycling, walking
sustainable transport methods again both Mayors
in agreement here. Ken planned Velib scheme and
Boris is implementing it  Boris - cycle
superhighways  Congestion charge Boris has
scrapped WEZ but he is certainly not about to
abandon the charge in central zone Nonetheless
it is good to see the car is no longer demonised
Mayor recognises urgent need to smooth traffic
flow and reduce congestion and traffic levels
e.g. looking at OL park and ride  However the
Plan allows the Mayor to examine road-user
charging as a demand management tool (if other
ideas unsuccessful) business must not become a
cash cow!  
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• Transport Connectivity
• Freight - efficient distribution of freight
  including the river (2012)
•  Cross-London and orbital rail links Again
  outer London is a priority for Boris and a change
  in direction from Ken  Mayor is investigating
  the possibility of additional river crossings in
  East London both Mayors have done this but will
  it really happen?
• Additional river crossing is unlikely to be
  prioritised at present possibility of major
  retrenchment and spending cutbacks post-May
  (March?) 2010  
• A decade of conservatism

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Aviation And heres where we really disagree
with Boris and Ken (albeit latterly) Boris
recognises that adequate airport capacity
serving a wide range of destinations is critical
to the competitive position of London in a global
economy But strongly opposed to R3 at
Heathrow  Who would pay for Boris Island?
LCCI survey of London firms found that 63 per
cent of those questioned did not think the
airport could be built within the next twenty
years, while just 28 per cent said it could be
built in time (LCCI/ComRes, LBLP, April 2009)
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Planning Sustainability Mayors planning
powers were extended in 2007 We must plan for
continued growth in London  Mayor wants a new,
more consensual approach to planning agreed and
shared objectives agencies in London working
with those in East and South-East England
Business wants expediency and certainty LCCI
lobbying in earnest for Crossrail since
1989LCCI wants to see continued support and
funding for the Infrastructure Planning
Commission (IPC), including under any new
government, to streamline decision-making on
major projects key recommendation in LCCI/ICE
infrastructure report
22
Over 62 per cent of engineers and businesses
believe central government does not take a
sufficiently long-term view on major London
infrastructure projects (LCCI/ICE, Engineering
London's Success, December 2009)

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• London Plan aims to ensure that all of London
  can benefit from the growth How? 
• How do we regenerate outer London? Do the more
  affluent and families choose to leapfrog outer
  London to reside in Kent, Essex and the wider
  South East or to dwell in the inner London
  boroughs?
• Drive low carbon goods and services and support
  innovation But how will this take place and what
  will it look like?
• A future for manufacturing in London?
•  Mayor will continue to support financial and
  business services leisure services and retail
  whilst at same time provide the conditions for
  other sectors to develop? But how do we avoid
  picking winners?  Workspace London Plan
  recognises that the overall provision is
  sufficient, but in CAZ may need mixed use
  development but how do we determine this?
  Should we not let the market decide? 

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LP should set the conditions for the market to
provide e.g. allow mixed use development
retain land for commercial activity empty
property rate relief Trends circumstances -
Flexible working/hot desking will we need more
office space? Through OLC, there could be
benefit in boroughs providing good quality
affordable office space in outer boroughs to help
regenerate local economiesPlan states that
boroughs can manage change of surplus office
space to other uses, provided overall capacity is
sustained to meet Londons long-term office needs
Or should the priority be housing? but
housing alone will not regenerate outer London
 
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• But how will the boroughs know?
• How will they achieve this? They will have to
  prioritise attracting businesses to their
• localities if they want economic regeneration
•  
• We could move swathes of the civil service to
  outer London boroughs such as Croydon
• regeneration of local economies and save the
  taxpayer a fortune
•  
• Very difficult to get the balance right and make
  decisions that will have potentially huge
• impact on boroughs
• Night time economy is important to Mayor
  boroughs are encouraged to have an
• evidence based approach to managing night time
  economy through integrated range of
• measures - planning, licensing, policing,
  transport and street cleaning
•  
• Again difficult balance for boroughs but a hugely
  important aspect of London life in
• economic terms
•  

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• In summary
• LCCI supports the Mayor(s) in the London Plan
  Economic Development
• Strategy and the Mayors Transport Strategy
• Support long-term perspective of 20-25 years but
  at the same time London
• needs flexibility to mitigate specific economic
  conditions and adapt to economic
• and political cycles
• Plan must not be too prescriptive it must set
  the framework and provide the
• necessary infrastructure within which the markets
  can decide
• A balanced approach across the boroughs but not
  at the expense of the
• centre

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• Mayor is supportive of SMEs and we welcome this
• Skills difficult nut to crack, but business
  does want to see good education and
• solutions for worklessness
• Quality of life issues are important to business
  e.g. good quality, affordable
• housing tacking crime public services, health,
  education etc
• Good business consultation and engagement from
  the GLA on the plans
• Support Mayor in championing London over party
  politics e.g. 50 pence tax
• Difficult times ahead a decade of conservatism
• Private sector will pull the UK out of recession
  and we need to provide the
• conditions to enable it to do so!