Part 1: The Conceptual Framework Hazard ? Disaster Risk/Probability of a Disaster

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Part 1The Conceptual FrameworkHazard ?
Disaster Risk/Probability of a Disaster
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The Language of Disaster
Hazard
Event
Damage
Change in Function
Disaster
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The Language of Disaster
Hazard
Event
Damage
Change in Function
Disaster
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Hazard

• Anything that may pose a danger
• Natural or human-made phenomenon or mixture of
  both
• Has the potential to adversely affect human
  health, property, activity, and/or the
  environment
• potential energy

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Hazards

• Natural
• Seismic
• Climatic
• Infectious
• diseases
• Mixed (natural human)
• Health related

• Human-made (anthropogenic)
• Technological
• Stored chemicals
• Unstable structure
• Unexploded bomb
• Material transport
• Potential Conflict

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The Language of Disaster
Hazard
Event
Damage
Change in Function
Disaster
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Event

• An occurrence that has the potential to affect
  living things and/or the environment
• The actualization of the hazard
• Primary (precipitating) event event responsible
  for initiating the damage example-Hurricane
  Katrina
• Secondary event events that result from the
  primary event example flood of New Orleans as a
  result of Hurricane Katrina
• Release of energy

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event
hazard
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Events

• Natural
• Seismic
• Earthquake
• Volcanic
• Tsunami
• Climatic
• Wind
• Precipitation
• Lightning
• Temperatures
• Erosion
• Drought
• Desertification
• Floods

• Human-made (anthropogenic)
• Technological
• Substance release
• Transport
• Structural failure
• Explosions
• Fire
• Environmental interference
• Conflict
• Armed (war, terrorism, complex)
• Unarmed (sanctions, embargo)
• Mixed
• Landslide
• Epidemic

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Characteristics of Events

• Onset
• Scope

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Components of scope

• Amplitude measure of power
• Flood crest, storm surge height, Richter scale
• Intensity amplitude/sample time
• Rainfall/hour
• Scale intensity in an area (intensity x area)
• Incidence of disease in county, hectares flooded
• Magnitude total energy of the event
• (scale x duration)

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Characteristics of EventsScope

• Amplitude
• Time interval
• Intensity
• Area
• Scale
• Total Duration
• Magnitude
• (total energy)

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The Language of Disaster
Hazard
Risk 1
Risk Modification
Event
Damage
Change in Function
Disaster
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The Language of Disaster
Hazard
Risk 1
Modification
Event
Damage
Change in Function
Disaster
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Damage

• Harm or injury impairing the value or usefulness
  of something, or the health or normal function of
  persons
• The negative result of an event on structures
• Humans and other living things
• Human-built structure
• Environment
• Adverse consequence of energy release

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event
damage
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The Language of Disaster
Hazard
Risk 1
Modification
Event
Risk 2
Absorbing Capacity
Damage
Change in Function
Disaster
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Absorbing capacity

• The ability to absorb the free energy of an event
  without sustaining damage
• Levees
• Building codes
• Reforestation
• Boarding windows
• Bomb shelters
• Bullet proof vests
• Armor
• Air bags
• Mitigation is anything done to increase absorbing
  capacity

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Relationship between Damage and Absorbing
Capacity
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The Language of Disaster
Hazard
Risk 1
Modification
Event
Risk 2
Absorbing Capacity
Damage
Change in Function
Disaster
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Change in Function

• Damage can result in a change in function
• Broken pipe leads to loss of water supply
• Damaged bridge leads to loss of means of
  transportation
• Broken leg leads to loss of mobility
• Collapsed building leads to loss of shelter
• Flooded field leads to loss of food supply

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The Language of Disaster
Hazard
Risk 1
Modification
Event
Risk 2
Absorbing Capacity
Damage
Risk 3
Buffering Capacity
Change in Function
Disaster
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Buffering Capacity

• The ability of a society to cope with damage and
  to function despite damage
• The ability to maintain essential functions for a
  change in available resources
• Surplus
• Evacuation
• Emergency Medical Services
• Shelters
• Caches of supplies

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The Language of Disaster
Hazard
Risk 1
Modification
Event
Risk 2
Absorbing Capacity
Damage
Risk 3
Buffering Capacity
Change in Function
Disaster
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Disaster

• A serious disruption of the functioning of a
  society, causing widespread human, material,
  and/or environmental losses, which exceed the
  ability of an affected society to cope using only
  its own resources

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The Language of Disaster
Hazard
Risk 1
Modification
Event
Risk 2
Absorbing Capacity
Damage
Risk 3
Buffering Capacity
Change in Function
Responses
Risk 4
Disaster
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The Language of Disaster
Hazard
Risk 1
Modification
Event
Risk 2
Absorbing Capacity
Damage
Preparedness
Risk 3
Buffering Capacity
Change in Function
Responses
Risk 4
Disaster
Resilience
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Preparedness

• Preparedness risk management
• absorbing capacity buffering capacity
  response capacity

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The Language of Disaster
Hazard
Risk 1
Modification
Event
Risk 2
Absorbing Capacity
Damage
Preparedness
Vulnerability
Risk 3
Buffering Capacity
Change in Function
Responses
Risk 4
Disaster
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Figure 3.4
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The Language of Disaster

• Must distinguish between
• Hazard
• Event
• Damage
• Disaster
• Their at at least four (4) different risks
  (probabilities) that comprise the risk for a
  disaster
• Must separate
• Absorbing Capacity
• Buffering Capacity
• Response

The Event IS NOT the Disaster!!!!!!
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What is depicted below?

• A. Hazard
• B. Event
• C. Damage
• D. Disaster
• E. Change in function

E. Change in Function
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What is depicted below?

• A. Hazard
• B. Event
• C. Damage
• D. Disaster

A. Hazard
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What is depicted below?

• A. Hazard
• B. Event
• C. Damage
• D. Disaster

B. Event
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What is depicted below?

• A. Response
• B. Absorbing Capacity
• C. Buffering Capacity
• D. Disaster

B. Absorbing Capacity
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Which of the following was a health disaster?

• A. 1994 Northridge Earthquake
• B. 1995 Oklahoma City bombing
• C. 2001 World Trade Center attack
• D. 2001 US anthrax letter attacks
• E. All of the above

D. 2001 US anthrax letter attacks
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Task 1

• Tables to complete Exercise 1
• A few participants will present results to group
  for discussion