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Systems Thinking, System Dynamics, Simulation

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Title: Systems Thinking, System Dynamics, Simulation


1
Systems Thinking, System Dynamics, Simulation
  • James R. Burns
  • Summer 2009

2
Course Content Structuresee Syllabus
  • Systems Thinking
  • System Dynamics
  • Continuous Deterministic Simulation
  • VENSIM
  • Goldratt
  • Discrete Stochastic Simulation
  • PROMODEL

3
Our web site
  • http//burns.ba.ttu.edu/ba_7000.htm

4
Goals of this course
  • To learn Senges five disciplines
  • How to build a learning organization
  • How to challenge mental models
  • Master the seven laws of systems thinking
  • Understand the principle of leverage
  • To learn the basics of causal modeling
  • known as Causal Loop Diagramming, CLD

5
Senges Five Disciplines
  • Personal Mastery
  • because we need to be the very best we can be
  • Mental Models
  • because these are the basis of all
    decision-making
  • Shared Vision
  • because this galvanizes workers to pursue a
    common goal
  • Team Learning
  • because companies are organized into teams
  • Systems Thinking
  • because this is only tool for coping with
    complexity

6
More Goals of this course.
  • To learn how transfer CLDs to Stock Flow
    Diagrams, SFDs
  • To learn how to implement SFDs in VENSIM
  • To learn how to parameterize a VENSIM model
  • To learn how to validate a VENSIM model
  • To learn how to conduct what-if experiments
  • To do sensitivity studies

7
How do these goals align with your
  • goals for the course
  • expectations for the course in general?

8
Would you like to .
  • learn about the Archetypes
  • learn how to recognize and apply the Archetypes

9
What kinds of processes, systems?
  • Dynamics of charisma
  • Agricultural processes
  • Project management
  • Enronitus
  • Growth and over-investment
  • WHAT ELSE?
  • Project proposal is due July 9 (Friday)

10
Requirements for Completion
  • Midterm worth 30
  • Final worth 30
  • Homework worth 10
  • Term project worth 20
  • Presentation worth 5
  • Class participation worth 5

11
Pace
  • More relaxed
  • No ties
  • Driven more by the needs of the students

12
Grades??!!
  • If you satisfactorily complete all the work
    required in this course, you will get at least a
    B
  • My guarantee
  • If you turn in unsatisfactory work, I will ask
    you to redo it
  • To get an A you must have a course grade above
    89.999

13
Term Project
  • You get to choose the topic
  • Topic is due on 7-9
  • Will ask you to turn-in as homework your
  • Causal loop diagram
  • Stock-and-flow diagram

14
Definitions and Terms
  • ST--Systems Thinking
  • SD--Systems Dynamics
  • CLD--Causal Loop Diagram
  • BOT--Behavior Over Time Chart
  • SFD--Stock Flow Diagram
  • Also called Forrester Schematic, or simply Flow
    Diagram
  • quantity--any variable, parameter, constant, or
    output
  • edge--a causal link between quantities

15
Senges Five Disciplines
  • Personal Mastery
  • because we need to be the very best we can be
  • Mental Models
  • because these are the basis of all
    decision-making
  • Shared Vision
  • because this galvanizes workers to pursue a
    common goal
  • Team Learning
  • because companies are organized into teams
  • Systems Thinking
  • because this is only tool for coping with
    complexity

16
System Dynamics Software
  • STELLA and I think
  • High Performance Systems, Inc.
  • best fit for K-12 education
  • Vensim
  • Ventana Systems, Inc.
  • Free from downloading off their web site
    www.vensim.com
  • Robust--including parametric data fitting and
    optimization
  • best fit for higher education
  • PowerSim
  • What Arthur Andersen is using

17
What is system dynamics?
  • A way to characterize systems as stocks and flows
    between stocks
  • Stocks are variables that accumulate the affects
    of other variables
  • Rates are variables the control the flows of
    material into and out of stocks
  • Auxiliaries are variables the modify information
    as it is passed from stocks to rates

18
A Simple Methodology
  • Collect info on the problem
  • List variables on post-it notes
  • Describe causality using a CLD
  • Translate CLD into SFD
  • Enter into VENSIM
  • Perform sensitivity and validation studies
  • Perform policy and WHAT IF experiments
  • Write recommendations

19
Causal Modeling
  • A way to characterize the physics of the system
  • Lacking a Newton to describe the causality in
    these socioeconomic systems

20
Key Benefits of the ST/SD
  • A deeper level of learning
  • Far better than a mere verbal description
  • A clear structural representation of the problem
    or process
  • A way to extract the behavioral implications from
    the structure and data
  • A hands on tool on which to conduct WHAT IF

21
Reinforcing Loop Structure
22
Reinforcing Loop Behavior
23
Balancing Loop Structure
24
Balancing Loop Behavior
25
Stock and Flow Notation--Quantities
  • STOCK
  • RATE
  • Auxiliary

26
Stock and Flow Notation--Quantities
  • Input/Parameter/Lookup
  • Have no edges directed toward them
  • Output
  • Have no edges directed away from them

27
Inputs and Outputs
  • Inputs
  • Parameters
  • Lookups
  • Outputs

28
Stock and Flow Notation--edges
  • Information
  • Flow

29
Some rules for translating CLDs into SFDs
  • There are two types of causal links in causal
    models (but we dont distinguish between them)
  • Information
  • Flow
  • Information proceeds from stocks and
    parameters/inputs toward rates where it is used
    to control flows
  • Flow edges proceed from rates to states (stocks)
    in the causal diagram always

30
Systems Thinking basics
  • Having established two basic loop
    typesreinforcing and balancinglet us proceed to
    a discussion of archetypes
  • Archetypes use the basic reinforcing and
    balancing loops

31
Natures Templates the Archetypes
  • Structures of which we are unaware hold us
    prisoner
  • The swimmer scenario
  • Certain patterns of structure occur again and
    again called ARCHETYPES

32
We are creating a language
  • reinforcing feedback and balancing feedback are
    like the nouns and verbs
  • systems archetypes are the basic sentences
  • Certain behavior patterns appear again in all
    disciplines--biology, psychology, family therapy,
    economics, political science, ecology and
    management
  • Can result in the unification of knowledge across
    all fields

33
Recurring behavior patterns
  • Do we know how to recognize them?
  • Do we know how to describe them?
  • Do we know how to prescribe cures for them?
  • The ARCHETYPES describe these recurring behavior
    patterns

34
The ARCHETYPES
  • Provide leverage points, intervention junctures
    at which substantial change can be brought about
  • Put the systems perspective into practice
  • About a dozen systems ARCHETYPES have been
    identified
  • All ARCHETYPES are made up of the systems
    building blocks reinforcing processes,
    balancing processes, delays

35
As mentioned, before attacking the ARCHETYPES we
need to understand simple structures
  • The reinforcing feedback loop
  • The balancing feedback loop

36
ARCHETYPE 1 LIMITS TO GROWTH
  • A reinforcing process is set in motion to produce
    a desired result. It creates a spiral of success
    but also creates inadvertent secondary effects
    (manifested in a balancing process) that
    eventually slow down the success.
  • All growth will eventually run up against
    constraints, impediments

37
Management Principle relative to ARCHETYPE 1
  • Dont push growth or success instead, remove the
    factors limiting growth

38
ARCHETYPE 1 LIMITS TO GROWTH
  • Useful in all situations where growth bumps up
    against limits
  • Firms grow for a while, then plateau
  • Individuals get better for a while, then their
    personal growth slows.
  • Falling in love is kind of like this
  • The love begins to plateau as the couple get to
    know each other better

39
Structure
growing action
state of stock
slowing action
Balancing
Reinforcing
40
Understanding the Structure
  • High-tech orgs grow rapidly because of their
    ability to introduce new products
  • This growth plateaus as lead times become too long

41
How to achieve Leverage
  • Most managers react to the slowing growth by
    pushing harder on the reinforcing loop
  • Unfortunately, the more vigorously you push the
    familiar levels, the more strongly the balancing
    process resists, and the more futile your efforts
    become.
  • Instead, concentrate on the balancing
    loop--changing the limiting factor
  • This is akin to Goldratts Theory of
    Constraints--remove the bottleneck, the impediment

42
Applications to Quality Circles and JIT
  • Quality circles work best when there is
    even-handed emphasis on both balancing and
    reinforcing loops
  • JIT has had to focus on recalcitrant suppliers
  • THERE WILL ALWAYS BE MORE LIMITING PROCESSES
  • When one source of limitation is removed, another
    will surface
  • Growth eventually WILL STOP

43
Create your own LIMITS TO GROWTH story
  • Identify a limits to growth pattern in your own
    experience
  • Diagram it
  • What is growing
  • What might be limitations
  • Example--the COBA and University capital
    campaigns
  • NOW, LOOK FOR LEVERAGE

44
Test your LIMITS TO GROWTH model
  • Talk to others about your perception
  • Test your ideas about leverage in small real-life
    experiments
  • Run and re-run the simulation model
  • Approach possible resistance and seek WIN-WIN
    strategies with them

45
ARCHETYPE 2 shifting the burden
  • An underlying problem generates symptoms that
    demand attention. But the underlying problem is
    difficult for people to address, either because
    it is obscure or costly to confront. So people
    shift the burden of their problem to other
    solutions--well-intentioned, easy fixes that seem
    extremely efficient.

46
Shifting the burden scenario, continued
  • Unfortunately, the easier solutions only
    ameliorate the symptoms they leave the
    underlying problem unaltered. The underlying
    problem grows worse and the system loses whatever
    abilities it had to solve the underlying problem.

47
The Stereotype Structure
Symptom-Correcting Process
Addiction Loop
Problem-Correcting Process
48
Special Case Eroding Goals
  • Full employment meant 4 unemployment in the
    1960s, but 6 to 7 unemployment in the early
    1980s
  • Gramm-Rudman bill called for reaching a balanced
    budget by 1991, but this was shifted to 1993 and
    from 1993 to 1996 and from 1996 to 1997
  • If all else fails, lower your goals..

49
EXAMPLE
50
Another Example
51
Still Another Example
Symptom-correcting process
Addiction Loop
Problem-correcting Process
52
Still other Problems
  • What about retention of students
  • The perceived fix is raise the admission
    standards
  • What about drug-related crime
  • The perceived fix is to remove the drugs from the
    street

53
Shifting the Burden is an insidious problem
  • Is has a subtle reinforcing cycle
  • This increases dependence on the symptomatic
    solution
  • But eventually, the system loses the ability to
    apply the fundamental solution
  • The system collapses

54
Senge Says
  • Todays problems are yesterdays solutions
  • We tend to look for solutions where they are
    easiest to find
  • The easy way out usually leads back in

55
HOW TO ACHIEVE LEVERAGE
  • Must strengthen the fundamental response
  • Requires a long-term orientation and a shared
    vision
  • Must weaken the symptomatic response
  • Requires a willingness to tell the truth about
    these solutions

56
Create your own Shifting the Burden Story
  • Is there a problem that is getting gradually
    worse over the long term?
  • Is the health of the system gradually worsening?
  • Is there a growing feeling of helplessness?
  • Have short-term fixes been applied?
  • The local Mexican restaurant problem of using
    coupons to generate business and then cant get
    away from using the coupons because their
    customer base is hooked on coupons

57
To structure your problem
  • Identify the problem
  • Next, identify a fundamental solution
  • Then, identify one or several symptomatic
    solutions
  • Finally, identify the possible negative side
    effects of the symptomatic solution

58
Review
  • We have now seen two of the basic systems
    archetypes.
  • The Limits to Growth Archetype
  • The Shifting the Burden Archetype
  • As the archetypes are mastered, they become
    combined into more elaborate systemic
    descriptions.
  • The sentences become parts of paragraphs
  • The simple stories become integrated into more
    involved stories

59
Robust Loops
  • In any loop involving a pair of quantities/edges,
  • one quantity must be a rate
  • the other a state or stock,
  • one edge must be a flow edge
  • the other an information edge

60
CONSISTENCY
  • All of the edges directed toward a quantity are
    of the same type
  • All of the edges directed away from a quantity
    are of the same type

61
Rates and their edges
62
Parameters and their edges
63
Stocks and their edges
64
Auxiliaries and their edges
65
Outputs and their edges
66
STEP 1 Identify parameters
  • Parameters have no edges directed toward them

67
STEP 2 Identify the edges directed from
parameters
  • These are information edges always

68
STEP 3 By consistency identify as many other
edge types as you can
69
STEP 4 Look for loops involving a pair of
quantities only
  • Use the rules for robust loops identified above

70
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72
Distinguishing Stocks Flows by Name
  • NAME UNITS
    Stock or flow
  • Revenue
  • Liabilities
  • Employees
  • Depreciation
  • Construction starts
  • Hiring
  • material standard of living

73
The VENSIM User Interface
  • The Time bounds Dialog box

74
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75
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76
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77
A single-sector exponential growth model
  • Einstein said the most powerful force in the
    world was compound interest
  • interest taken in relation to principal
  • Each stock requires an initial value

78
Lets DO IT
  • Create the stock principal
  • Include the rate interest
  • Include the information connector
  • Initialize the stock
  • Simulate

79
John vs. Jack
  • Each works for 30 years before retiring
  • John makes 2000 contributions to his IRA each
    year for the first five years and none there
    after.
  • Jack makes 2000 contributions to his IRA each
    year beginning in year six and continuing through
    year 30
  • Each IRA yields a 15 compounded return
  • Which turns out to be larger?

80
John vs. Jack--two interest accounts.mdl
81
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83
Another single-sector Exponential growth Model
  • Consider a simple population with infinite
    resources--food, water, air, etc. Given,
    mortality information in terms of birth and death
    rates, what is this population likely to grow to
    by a certain time.
  • A population of 200,000, growing at 1.3 a year.
  • A population of 1.6 billion with a birth rate
    norm of .04 and a death rate norm of .028

84
Experiments with growth models
  • Models with only one rate and one state
  • Average lifetime death rates
  • Models in which the exiting rate is not a
    function of its adjacent state

85
Example
  • Build a model of work flow from work undone to
    work completed.
  • This flow is controlled by a work rate.
  • Assume that are 1000 days of undone work
  • Assume the work rate is 20 completed days a month
  • Assume the units on time are months
  • Assume no work is completed initially.

86
Solving the problem of negative stock drainage
  • pass information to the outgoing rate
  • use the IF THEN ELSE function

87
Shifting loop Dominance
  • Rabbit populations grow rapidly with a
    reproduction fraction of .125 per month
  • When the population reaches the carrying capacity
    of 1000, the net growth rate falls back to zero,
    and the population stabilizes
  • Starting with two rabbits, run for 100 months
    with a time step of 1 month
  • (This model has two loops, an exponential growth
    loop (also called a reinforcing loop) and a
    balancing loop)

88
Shifting loop Dominance
  • Assumes the following relation for Effect of
    Resources
  • Effect of Resources (carrying capacity -
    Rabbits)/carrying capacity
  • This is a multiplier
  • Multipliers are always dimless (dimensionless)
  • When rabbits are near zero, this is near 1
  • When rabbits are near carrying capacity, this is
    near zero
  • This will shut down the net rabbit birth rate

89
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91
Dimensionality Considerations
  • VENSIM will check for dimensional consistency if
    you enter dimensions
  • Rigorously, all models must be dimensionally
    consistent
  • What ever units you use for stocks, the
    associated rates must have those units divided by
    TIME
  • An example follows

92
Cascaded rate-state (stock) combinations
  • In the oil exploration industry, unproven
    reserves (measured in barrels) become proven
    reserves when they are discovered. The
    extraction rate transforms proven reserves into
    inventories of crude. The refining rate
    transforms inventories of crude into refined
    petroleum products. The consumption rate
    transforms refined products into pollution (air,
    heat, etc.)

93
Another cascaded rate-stock combination
  • Population cohorts. Suppose population is broken
    down into age cohorts of 0-15, 16-30, 31-45,
    46-60, 61-75, 76-90
  • Here each cohort has a lifetime of 15 years
  • Again, each rate has the units of the associated
    stocks divided by time

94
A single-sector Exponential goal-seeking Model
  • Sonya Magnova is a resources planner for a school
    district. Sonya wishes to a maintain a desired
    level of resources for the district. Sonyas new
    resource provision policy is quite
    simple--adjust actual resources AR toward desired
    resources DR so as to force these to conform as
    closely as possible. The time required to add
    additional resources is AT.

95
The Sector Approach to the Determination of
Structure
  • What is meant by sector?
  • What are the steps
  • to determination of structure within sectors
  • to determination of structure between sectors

96
Definition of sector
  • All the structure associated with a single flow
  • Note that there could be several states
    associated with a single flow
  • The next sector in the pet population model has
    three states in it

97
Sector Methodology, Overall
  • Identify flows (sectors) that must be included
    within the model
  • Develop the structure within each sector of the
    model.
  • Use standard one-sector sub-models or develop the
    structure within the sector from scratch using
    the steps in Table 15.5

98
Sector Methodology, Overall Contd
  • Develop the structure between all sectors that
    make up the model
  • Implement the structure in a commercially
    available simulation package

99
Steps Required to Formulate the Structure for a
Sector from Scratch
  • Specify the quantities required to delineate the
    structure within each sector
  • Determine the interactions between the quantities
    and delineate the resultant causal diagram
  • Classify the quantity and edge types and
    delineate the flow diagram

100
  • Resource, facility and infrastructure (desks,
    chairs, computers, networks, labs, etc.) needs
    for an educational entity are driven by a growing
    population that it serves. Currently, the
    population stands at 210,000 and is growing at
    the rate of two percent a year. One out of every
    three of these persons is a student.
  • One teacher is needed for every 25 students.
    Currently, there are 2,300 actual teachers three
    percent of these leave each year. Construct a
    structure for each that drives the actual level
    toward the desired level. Assume an adjustment
    time of one year. Set this up in VENSIM to run
    for 25 years, with a time-step of .25 years.

101
  • One teacher is needed for every 25 students.
    One-hundred square feet of facility space is
    needed for each student. Thirty-five hundred
    dollars in infrastructure is needed for each
    student. Currently, there are 2,300 teachers
    three percent of these leave each year.
    Currently, there is five million sq. ft of
    facility space, but this becomes obsolescent
    after fifty years. Currently, there is
    205,320,000 in infrastructure investment, but
    this is fully depreciated after ten years. For
    each of infrastructure, teachers and facility
    space, determine a desired level or stock for the
    same. Construct a structure for each that drives
    the actual level toward the desired level.

102
  • Set this up in VENSIM to run for 25 years, with a
    time-step of .25 years. Assume adjustment times
    of one year. DETERMINE HOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
    FACILITIES, TEACHERS AND INFRASTRUCTURE ARE
    NEEDED PER YEAR OVER THIS TIME PERIOD.

103
What are the main sectors and how do these
interact?
  • Population
  • Teacher resources
  • Facilities
  • Infrastructure

104
Factors affecting teacher departures
  • Inside vs. outside salaries
  • Student-teacher ratios
  • How might these affects be included?

105
Teacher departure description
  • It is known that when the ratio of average
    inside the district salary is comparable to
    outside salaries of positions that could be held
    by teachers, morale is normal and teacher
    departures are normal
  • When the inside-side salary ratio is less than
    one, morale is low and departures are greater
    than normal
  • The converse is true as well

106
Teacher departure description
  • When student-teacher ratios exceed the ideal or
    desired student teacher ratio, which is twenty
    four, morale is low and again departures are
    greater than normal
  • The converse is true as well

107
A Two-sector Housing/population Model
  • A resort community in Colorado has determined
    that population growth in the area depends on the
    availability of housing as well as the persistent
    natural attractiveness of the area. Abundant
    housing attracts people at a greater rate than
    under normal conditions. The opposite is true
    when housing is tight. Area Residents also leave
    the community at a certain rate due primarily to
    the availability of housing.

108
Two-sector Population/housing Model, Continued
  • The housing construction industry, on the other
    hand, fluctuates depending on the land
    availability and housing desires. Abundant
    housing cuts back the construction of houses
    while the opposite is true when the housing
    situation is tight. Also, as land for
    residential development fills up (in this
    mountain valley), the construction rate decreases
    to the level of the demolition rate of houses.

109
What are the main sectors and how do these
interact?
  • Population
  • Housing

110
What is the structure within each sector?
  • Determine state/rate interactions first
  • Determine necessary supporting infrastructure
  • PARAMETERS
  • AUXILIARIES

111
What does the structure within the population
sector look like?
  • RATES in-migration, out-migration, net death
    rate
  • STATES population
  • PARAMETERS in-migration normal, out-migration
    normal, net death-rate normal

112
What does the structure within the housing sector
look like?
  • RATES construction rate, demolition rate
  • STATES housing
  • AUXILIARIES Land availability multiplier, land
    fraction occupied
  • PARAMETERS normal housing construction, average
    lifetime of housing
  • PARAMETERS land occupied by each unit, total
    residential land

113
What is the structure between sectors?
  • There are only AUXILIARIES, PARAMETERS, INPUTS
    and OUTPUTS

114
What are the between-sector auxiliaries?
  • Housing desired
  • Housing ratio
  • Housing construction multiplier
  • Attractiveness for in-migration multiplier
  • PARAMETER Housing units required per person

115
Natures Templates the Archetypes
  • Structures of which we are unaware hold us
    prisoner
  • The swimmer scenario
  • Certain patterns of structure occur again and
    again called ARCHETYPES

116
We are creating a language
  • reinforcing feedback and balancing feedback are
    like the nouns and verbs
  • systems archetypes are the basic sentences
  • Behavior patterns appear again in all
    disciplines--biology, psychology, family therapy,
    economics, political science, ecology and
    management
  • Can result in the unification of knowledge across
    all fields

117
Recurring behavior patterns
  • Do we know how to recognize them?
  • Do we know how to describe them?
  • Do we know how to prescribe cures for them?
  • The ARCHETYPES describe these recurring behavior
    patterns

118
The ARCHETYPES
  • provide leverage points, intervention junctures
    at which substantial change can be brought about
  • put the systems perspective into practice
  • About a dozen systems ARCHETYPES have been
    identified
  • All ARCHETYPES are made up of the systems
    building blocks reinforcing processes,
    balancing processes, delays

119
Before attacking the ARCHETYPES we need to
understand simple structures
  • the reinforcing feedback loop
  • the balancing feedback loop
  • THE DEMO

120
ARCHETYPE 1 LIMITS TO GROWTH
  • A reinforcing process is set in motion to produce
    a desired result. It creates a spiral of success
    but also creates inadvertent secondary effects
    (manifested in a alancing process) that
    eventually slow down the success.

121
Management Principle relative to ARCHETYPE 1
  • Dont push growth or success remove the factors
    limiting growth

122
ARCHETYPE 1 LIMITS TO GROWTH
  • Useful in all situations where growth bumps up
    against limits
  • Firms grow for a while, then plateau
  • Individuals get better for a while, then their
    personal growth slows.
  • Falling in love is kind of like this
  • The love begins to plateau as the couple get to
    know each other better

123
Structure
124
Understanding the Structure
  • High-tech orgs grow rapidly because of ability to
    introduce new products
  • This growth plateaus as lead times become too long

125
How to achieve Leverage
  • Most managers react to the slowing growth by
    pushing harder on the reinforcing loop
  • Unfortunately, the more vigorously you push the
    familiar levels, the more strongly the balancing
    process resists, and the more futile your efforts
    become.
  • Instead, concentrate on the balancing
    loop--changing the limiting factor
  • This is akin to Goldratts Theory of
    Constraints--remove the bottleneck, the impediment

126
Applications to Quality Circles and JIT
  • Quality circles work best when there is
    even-handed emphasis on both balancing and
    reinforcing loops
  • JIT has had to focus on recalcitrant suppliers
  • THERE WILL ALWAYS BE MORE LIMITING PROCESSES
  • When once source of limitation is removed,
    another will surface
  • Growth eventually WILL STOP

127
Create your own LIMITS TO GROWTH story
  • Identify a limits to growth pattern in your own
    experience
  • Diagram it
  • What is growing
  • What might be limitations
  • Example--the COBA and University capital
    campaigns
  • NOW, LOOK FOR LEVERAGE

128
Test your LIMITS TO GROWTH model
  • Talk to others about your perception
  • Test your ideas about leverage in small real-life
    experiments
  • Run and re-run the simulation model
  • Approach possible resistance and seek WIN-WIN
    strategies with them

129
ARCHETYPE 2 shifting the burden
  • An underlying problem generates symptoms that
    demand attention. But the underlying problem is
    difficult for people to address, either because
    it is obscure or costly to confront. So people
    shift the burden of their problem to other
    solutions--well-intentioned, easy fixes that seem
    extremely efficient. Unfortunately the easier
    solutions only ameliorate the symptoms they
    leave the underlying problem unaltered. The
    underlying problem grows worse and the system
    loses whatever abilities it had to solve the
    underlying problem.

130
The Stereotype Structure
Symptiom-Correcting Process
Addictioin Loop
Problem-Correcting Process
131
Special Case Eroding Goals
  • Full employment meant 4 unemployment in the
    60s, but 6 to 7 unemployment in the early
    1980s
  • Gramm-Rudman bill called for reaching a balanced
    budget by 1991, but this was shifted to 1993 and
    from 1993 to 1996 and from 1996 to 1998
  • If all else fails, lower your goals..

132
EXAMPLE
133
Another Example
Raise tuition, add course fees, etc.
Costs of Higher Ed not funded by State
Perceived cost to the student
Lower enrollments
134
Still Another Example
Symptom-correcting process
Addiction Loop
Problem-correcting Process
135
Shifting the Burden is an insidious problem
  • Is has a subtle reinforcing cycle
  • This increases dependence on the symptomatic
    solution
  • But eventually, the system loses the ability to
    apply the fundamental solution
  • The system collapses

136
Senge Says
  • Todays problems are yesterdays solutions
  • We tend to look for solutions where they are
    easiest to find

137
HOW TO ACHIEVE LEVERAGE
  • Must strengthen the fundamental response
  • Requires a long-term orientation and a shared
    vision
  • Must weaken the symptomatic response
  • Requires a willingness to tell the truth about
    these solutions

138
Create your own Shifting the Burden Story
  • Is there a problem that is getting gradually
    worse over the long term?
  • Is the overall health of the system gradually
    worsening?
  • Is there a growing feeling of helplessness?
  • Have short-term fixes been applied?
  • The Casa Olay problem of using coupons to
    generate business and then cant get away from
    using the coupons because their customer base is
    hooked on coupons

139
To structure your problem
  • Identify the problem
  • Next, identify a fundamental solution
  • Then, identify one or several symptomatic
    solutions
  • Finally, identify the possible negative side
    effects of the symptomatic solution

140
Review
  • We have now seen two of the basic systems
    archetypes.
  • The Limits to Growth Archetype
  • The Shifting the Burden Archetype
  • As the archetypes are mastered, they become
    combined into more elaborate systemic
    descriptions.
  • The basic sentences become parts of paragraphs
  • The simple stories become integrated into more
    involved stories

141
Seeing Structures, not just Trees
  • Helps us focus on what is important and what is
    not
  • Helps us determine what variables to focus on and
    which to pay less attention to

142
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