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Dr' Melanie Fitzpatrick

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Dr. Melanie Fitzpatrick. mfitzpatrick_at_ucsusa.org. Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA ... Growing season extended by one week during the 20th century ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Dr' Melanie Fitzpatrick


1
Confronting Climate Change in Minnesota
Google Earth
Dr. Melanie Fitzpatrick mfitzpatrick_at_ucsusa.org U
nion of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA July
22, 2009
2
Meeting the Climate Challenge
  • Mitigation of heat-trapping emissions
  • Adapting to changes already in store

iStockphoto.com
3
Midwest Climate Impacts Assessment
Available for download at www.ucsusa.org/mwclima
te
Available for download at www.globalchange.gov
4
Our Changing Midwest Climate
  • Annual temps have warmed more than 2.5ºF since
    1980, with winter increases of almost 4ºF
  • Warming winters have caused a scarcity of cold
    snaps in the 1990s
  • Growing season extended by one week during the
    20th century
  • Extreme precipitation and extreme heat in summer
    are becoming more frequent

5
Further warming depends on our emissions choices
Source IPCC 2001
6
Projected Temperature Changes
Source NECIA/UCS, 2007 (see www.climatechoices.o
rg/ne/)
7
Projected Temp Changes for the MW
8
Heat index combines temperature and humidity
How summers may feel
9
Scorching Summers Become Standard
  • By end of century
  • Higher-emissions scenario increases average
    summer temps by 12-15F
  • Lower-emissions scenario decreases this average
    by half

10
Heat Wave Chicago 1995
  • Temps gt 90F for seven days in a row, two days
    exceeding 100F
  • High humidity and night-time temps
  • Hospitals overwhelmed 23 Emergency Rooms closed
    to new patients
  • Estimated 450-700 heat-related deaths

11
Projections for heat waves similar to Chicago in
1995
12
Heat Wave Europe 2003
  • The worst in at least the past 150 years
  • Three months with daily temps significantly
    hotter than normal
  • In France, fatalities exceeded 2,000 per day
    during the peak up to 70,000 deaths in 16
    countries

13
Projections for heat waves similar to Europe in
2003
Number of European-like heat waves in 30-year
period
  • Analysis for Chicago, Indianapolis, Minneapolis
  • Every second year by end of century if emissions
    trends continue
  • Greatly reduced under lower-emissions future

Union of Concerned Scientists 2009. Confronting
Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest.
14
Changing Precipitation
  • Increasing winter precipitation with drier
    summers
  • More frequent and intense periods of heavy
    rainfall

Red River, Minnesota, Spring 2009
Associated Press
15
Changing Spring Precipitation

Higher emissions, end of century
  • 30-50 Increase
  • Delays in planting spring crops
  • Widespread flooding
  • Declining water quality

16
UCS Resources
Tips and Tools Webinar and PPT
www.ucsusa.org/ssi
Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest
www.ucsusa.org/mwclimate Questions
ssi_at_ucsusa.org
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