Year of Tropical Convection YOTC A Scientific Framework for Addressing the Multiscale Organization o

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Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) A Scientific
Framework for Addressing the Multi-scale
Organization of Tropical Convection and its
Interaction with the Global Circulation
Duane Waliser, JPL/Caltech Mitch Moncrieff,
NCAR Co-chairs, Science Planning Group
YOTC Data Archiving Period May 2008 Oct 2009
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YOTC Progress Plans

• Science Plan Completed, Printed. Abridged
  version submitted to BAMS, Moncrieff et al., 1 of
  5 coordinated papers on seamless weather-climate
  prediction.
• YOTC Science Sessions Fall AGU08, AMS09,
  Spring AGU09
• Implementation Plan Being Prepared
• (HiRes) Analysis (15 day) Forecast Data Sets
• ECMWF 25km, Available on-line w/ extra
  diabatic fields.
• NASA/GEOS5 - 25km, calculations in progress, w/
  extra fields
• NCEP - 50km, archiving occuring, extra diabatic
  fields needs O(100k)).
• Satellite Data Sets, Archive and Dissemination
• Approximately 15 key satellite-mission data sets
  have been identified for inclusion. NASA GES
  DISC Giovanni system is proposed for
  dissemination. Seeking support from NASA for the
  dissemination.
• Synoptic Event / Period of Interest Discussions
  Underway
• TC, MJO, CCEWs, Monsoon, Diurnal Cycle

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IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
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YoTC Analyses Forecasts

• ECMWF
• T799 Analyses
• 10-day Forecasts
• Weather Analyses
• High-Res ICs BCs
• Weather/Satellite Comparison
• Special diabatic and other fields saved.
• Source NSF ONR

http//data-portal.ecmwf.int/data/d/yotc/
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EXAMPLE Synoptic Event of Interest June/July
2008 MJO/Kelvin Waves -gt E.Pac ITCZ -gt TCs -gt
Gulf Surge -gt NA Monsoon -gt Flash Floods AZ, NM
Contributed by J. Gottschalck/NCEP M.
Wheeler/ABOM
Developing MJO-like system June 3
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Northward and Eastward Propagating Components
June 6
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Upstream Kelvin Wave Activity June 19
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Downstream Propagation -gt ITCZ TC Activity
June 29
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Gulf Surge Monsoon Activity July 11
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Satellite Data Analysis Dissemination
NASA Giovanni A-Train Data Interfaces
AIRS AMSR-E CALIPSO CERES CloudSat GPS ISCCP MLS
MODIS PEHRRP QuikSCAT TRMM/TMI
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YOTC A-Train Data Co-Location Possibilities for
Studying Modeling Cloud/Convection
MLS
CERES
UTLS T(p), q(p), qi(p), CO (p), O3(p), HNO3(p)
TOA and SFC radiative fluxes
P (hpa)
CALIPSO
Aerosol (p) Cloud (p)
t lt 3
qi(p)
AIRS q(p) T(p)
CloudSat
qi(p) IWP ql(p) LWP Cloud Type (p) Particle
Size (p) Light Precip
MODIS
ECMWF w(p) u(p) du/dp(p) divH(p)
Aerosol Opt Depth Cloud Top - Temperature
Pressure, Particle Size, etc
ql(p)
AMSR Precipitation SST Prec Water LWP Surf. Wind
Speed
Light Precip
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YOTC Progress Plans

• Research Modeling Framework
• A number of modeling team connections have been
  established and enthusiasm is significant CMMAP
  and Tao/GMAO Superparameterization, Japanese
  NICAM effort, UK Cascade Project, DOE/ARM CAPT
  Transpose AMIP work, several CRM efforts, etc.
  Significant work remains in this aspect of
  implementation, including integration with
  GEWEX/GCSS, CLIVAR, WGNE, AMY, Pan-Monsoon,
  THORPEX, etc, and parameterization improvement
  plans.
• Coordination with Field Campaign
• e.g. AMY, VOCALS, T-PARC Expected leading up to
  and at IP Workshop.
• Implementation Plan and Workshop
• Implementation Plan being Drafted.
  Implementation Planning Workshop, Honolulu, July
  13-15, 09. About 50 invited so far, 30
  accepted, 5 declined, 15 maybe/waiting.
  Implementation Plan deliverable shortly after
  workshop.
• Project Support Has Been Challenging But Recent
  Progress
• Need Information and Communication
  Specialist/Support Email lists, comprehensive
  and dynamic web-page, newsletter, (postal) mail
  science plan, workshop/science session support,
  etc.
• With WCRP WWRP help/request USTEC now
  provides 1/2 FTE support for a specialist to
  help with this item. (NSFNASANOAA).

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Year of Tropical Convection
REQUEST
Continued coordination and programmatic project
support with WWRP
With WWRP/THORPEX, funds to co-support working
group / science workshops approximately once per
year. Dec 07 Science Planning Meeting
Washington DC July 09 Implementation Planning
Meeting Hawaii FUTURE/NEXT 2010 1st Science
Workshop
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Recommendation for a Task Force on Intraseasonal
Variability / Madden-Julian Oscillation
 Prepared by US CLIVAR MJO Working Group
Asian-Australian Monsoon Panel (AAMP)
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Motivation

• The MJO is the dominant form of intraseasonal
  variability in the Tropics.
• The MJO impacts a wide range of weather climate
  phenomena.
• Monsoon Onset Breaks
• ENSOIOD IInteractions
• Tropical Cyclone Modulation
• Midlatitude Weather Impacts
• Organization of Chl, Aerosols, Ozone, etc
  variability.
• Our weather climate models have a poor
  representation of the MJO.
• Great benefit could be derived from better
  predictions of the MJO - Helps to bridge the gap
  between weather and seasonal predictions.

Figures Maloney, PMEL/TAO, Nakazwa, MJO WG,
Lin, Waliser
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Considerations of Remaining Predictability
2 week time scale will repeat itself 260 times
during lead time for one decadal prediction and
2600 times for 1 century projection.
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US CLIVAR MJO Working Group 2006-08 Summary of
Accomplishments

• Develop MJO WG Web Site. www.usclivar.org/mjo.php
  
• Diagnostics Link, Meeting Telecon
  Updates, Theme Pages
• 2) Diagnostics for Asessing Model Simulations.
• On Website. J. Climate Article In Press. Also
  adopted by NCAR/NCL.
• 3) Application of Diagnostics to Models.
• CAM3.5, CAM-3Z, spcam, ECHAM4/OPYC, CFS, SNU,
  GFDL, GEOS5
• J. Climate Article REVISION JUST SUBMITTED.
• 4) Operational MJO Forecasts Metrics.
• Designed, Implemented at Several Opertional
  Centers, w/ WGNE Help
• and NCEP/CPC leading, BAMS Article drafted by J.
  Gottschalck
• 5) Workshop/Experimentation Planning
• November 2007, Irvine, CA. BAMS meeting summary
  published.

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CLIVAR MJO Workshop Recommendations
Follow on activities foci of collaborations
Renewing/Continuing MJOWG as WCRP/WWRP Task Force

• Further development of process-oriented
  diagnostics/metrics that improve our insight into
  the physical mechanisms for robust simulation of
  the MJO and that facilitate improvements in
  convective and other physical parameterizations
  relevant to the MJO . (e.g., GEWEX/GCSS, WGNE,
  YOTC)
• Continue to explore multi-scale interactions
  within the context of convectively-coupled
  equatorial waves, both in observations and by
  exploiting recent advances in high-resolution
  modeling frameworks, with particular emphasis on
  vertical structure and diabatic processes. (e.g,.
  YOTC, CMMAP, CASCADE, AMY)
• Expand efforts to develop and implement MJO
  forecast metrics under operational conditions,
  with additional focus on boreal summer and
  ensemble development. Includes the development of
  a multi-model hindcast to assess MJO
  predictability forecast skill and development
  of ensemble methods. (e.g., pan-Monsoon, Thorpex,
  WGNE, WGSIP, TFSIP, APCC, AMY).

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CLIVAR MJO Workshop Recommendations
Follow on activities foci of collaborations
Renewing/Continuing MJOWG as WCRP/WWRP Task Force
REQUEST
An Administrative Home for the Activity
preferrably with a weather-climate context.
Support for the formation of this Task Force is
requested from WCRP and WWRP. The only
significant funding support would be for a group
meeting (late 2009) and a workshop (late 2010).
Both these types of events greatly contributed to
the success of the MJOWGs past activities.