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Thomas Frey Senior Futurist

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Title: Thomas Frey Senior Futurist


1
Thomas FreySenior Futurist
Emerging TrendsGlobal Trends the New
Innovation Landscape
  • DaVinci Institute
  • PO Box 270315
  • Louisville, CO 80027
  • (303) 666-4133
  • dr2tom_at_davinciinstitute.com

2
Worlds Most Famous Person
  • Who is the worlds most famous person?(Non-religi
    ous)

3
Worlds Most Famous Person
  • The worlds most famous person has not yet been
    born.
  • What is the accomplishment that will make that
    person so famous?

4
Curing Cancer
  • University of Chicago economists Kevin Murphy (L)
    and Robert Topel (R) say finding a cure for
    cancer will be worth about 50 trillion in social
    value.

5
A Base on the Moon
6
Mass Energy Storage
7
Global Climate Control
8
The Flying Car
9
Why Do We Care About the Future?
10
Why Do We Care About the Future?
  • Life around us today is hard

11
Why Do We Care About the Future?
  • Each day the pace of life and the demands placed
    on our time continues to escalate

12
Why Do We Care About the Future?
  • The news we see on TV paints a very grim
    picture of who we are and what weve become

13
Why Do We Care About the Future?
  • At every turn we face new challenges too
    many people, incurable diseases, famines,
    droughts, poverty, shortages, and new disasters
    waiting to happen

14
Why Do We Care About the Future?
  • but the one place we can escape and feel hope
    for a better life is in the future

Image by Stephan Martiniere
15
Why Do We Care About the Future?
  • The future is a special place in our dreams

Image by Patrick Turner
16
Why Do We Care About the Future?
  • The future is filled with ideas and energy

Image by Stephan Martiniere
17
Why Do We Care About the Future?
  • But most importantly, the future is where our
    children live

Image by Patrick Turner
18
Creating the Future
  • Throughout history, people with vision have
    been creating the future

19
History of the Future
  • Leonardo da Vinci - 1500

da Vinci Flying Machine
20
History of the Future
  • Leonardo da Vinci - 1500
  • Jules Verne - 1870

Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea
21
History of the Future
  • Leonardo da Vinci - 1500
  • Jules Verne 1870
  • Alex Raymond - 1934

Flash Gordon - Space Soldiers 1936
22
History of the Future
  • Leonardo da Vinci - 1500
  • Jules Verne 1870
  • Alex Raymond - 1934
  • The Jetsons - 1962

William Hanna/Joseph Barbera Production
23
History of the Future
  • Leonardo da Vinci - 1500
  • Jules Verne 1870
  • Alex Raymond - 1934
  • The Jetsons 1962
  • Gene Roddenberry - 1966

Star Trek Starship Enterprise
24
History of the Future
  • Leonardo da Vinci - 1500
  • Jules Verne 1870
  • Alex Raymond - 1934
  • The Jetsons 1962
  • Gene Roddenberry - 1966
  • Arthur C. Clark - 1968

2001 A Space Odyssey
25
History of the Future
  • Leonardo da Vinci - 1500
  • Jules Verne 1870
  • Alex Raymond - 1934
  • The Jetsons 1962
  • Gene Roddenberry - 1966
  • Arthur C. Clark 1968
  • Philip K. Dick - 1968

Blade Runner - 1968
26
History of the Future
  • Leonardo da Vinci - 1500
  • Jules Verne 1870
  • Alex Raymond - 1934
  • The Jetsons 1962
  • Gene Roddenberry - 1966
  • Arthur C. Clark 1968
  • Philip K. Dick - 1968
  • George Lucas - 1975

Star Wars- Empire Strikes Back
27
History of the Future
  • Leonardo da Vinci - 1500
  • Jules Verne 1870
  • Alex Raymond - 1934
  • The Jetsons 1962
  • Gene Roddenberry - 1966
  • Arthur C. Clark 1968
  • Philip K. Dick - 1968
  • George Lucas 1975
  • Luc Besson - 1997

The Fifth Element
28
Our Image of the Future Determines Our Actions
Today
Image by Stephan Martiniere
29
  • The FutureCreates thePresent

30
Past Visionaries have Created Our Present
  • Leonardo da Vinci Gave us visions of airplanes
    helicopters
  • Jules Verne Gave us visions of submarines and
    space travel
  • Alex Raymond Gave us visions of rockets and
    space travel
  • The Jetsons Gave us visions of robots and
    flying cars
  • Gene Roddenberry Gave us visions of cell
    phones and teleportation
  • Arthur C. Clark Gave us visions of talking
    computers and the space elevator
  • Philip K. Dick Gave us visions of flying cars
    and time travel
  • George Lucas Gave us visions of robots and
    space travel

31
Our Image of the Future Determines Our Actions
Today
Image by Stephan Martiniere
32
  • The FutureCreates thePresent

33
How Do We Create Visions of the Library of the
Future?
What are the driving forces? What things are
changing?
34
The Year is 2059
  • You are standing in front of a vending machine
  • What form of payment will you put into it?

35
Future Vending Machines
  • will be mobile, perhaps flying
  • will come to you
  • will know what you want

36
Future Vending Machines
37
Future Vending Machines
38
Future Vending Machines
39
The Year is 2109
  • What music that we listen to today, will
    people still be listening to 100 years from now?

40
Future Music
  • More importantly than what we will be
    listening to is how we will be listening to it.
  • Will music still come from speakers?
  • Will it just appear in our heads?
  • Will we even have music?

41
The Ultimate Music Player
  • .will have the ability to assess our reaction
    to the music and will only serve up music that we
    react positively to.

42
Ultimate Drink Dispenser
.will have the ability to assess what kind of
liquids our body needs and will only serve up a
liquid that we react positively to.
43
Perfect Water
44
Global Trend 1
  • The Age of Hyper-Individuality

45
Age of Hyper-Individuality
  • We now believe there is a product to solve every
    problem, need, or desire

46
Age of Hyper-Individuality
  • Categories and groupings are no longer sufficient
    in defining the divergent characteristics of
    people

47
Age of Hyper-Individuality
  • With the explosion of data from the Internet,
    cell phones, and credit cards, the people who can
    make sense of it all are redefining our world

48
Age of Hyper-Individuality
  • Every personality trait that can be sorted
    mathematically defines the basis for a new market

The Numerati by Steve Baker
49
Global Trend 2
  • Atoms Vs. Electrons

50
Atoms Vs. Electrons
  • There is a war being waged between atoms and
    electrons
  • Digital and virtual is moving exponentially
    faster than anything that requires manipulating
    physical materials
  • The disruptors are armed with electrons

51
Atoms Vs. Electrons
  • Physical Products
  • Designers and engineers
  • Shipping
  • Receiving
  • Inventory
  • Planning
  • Warehouse
  • Marketing
  • Sales
  • Digital Products
  • Designers and programmers
  • Marketing

52
Global Trend 3
  • Search Engines for the Physical World

53
Search Trends
  • Search Technology will become increasingly more
    complicated

54
Search Attributes
  • Text to text
  • Text to image
  • Text to audio
  • Text to video
  • Limited image to image
  • Limited image to video
  • Limited audio to audio
  • Limited video to video

55
Future Search Attributes
  • Smell
  • Taste
  • Texture
  • Reflectivity
  • Harmonic vibration
  • Specific gravity

56
Improving Our Vision
  • Searching for my glasses
  • Searching in the digital world vs. searching in
    the physical world

57
RFID Technology
58
Smart Goggles
  • Japans Yasuo Kuniyoshis memory recall invention

59
Smart Goggles
  • By overlaying the video stream with biometric
    data, we can determine what things are important
    to that individual and anticipate their value
    judgments in the future

60
Global Trend 4
  • The Diminishing Value of Proximity

61
In the Past
  • collective intelligence was achieved by putting
    like-minded people in the same room
  • through proximity

62
The Value of Proximity
  • We choose where we live, work, and conduct
    business based on proximity of key assets

63
The Value of Proximity
  • Most Critical Business Assets
  • Customers
  • Talent
  • Vendors
  • Suppliers
  • Business Networks
  • Favorable Laws
  • Airport
  • Business Services

64
Telepresence Room
Today we have other ways to compensate for
physical proximity
65
Telepresence Room
66
Human Connectedness
  • Communities in the future will be designed around
    new ways for people to meet people.

67
Human Connectedness
  • Future communities will be judged by their
    vibrancy, their interconnectedness, the fluid
    structures for causing positive human collisions

68
Global Trend 5
  • The Empire of One

69
Empire of One
  • One person business with far reaching influence

70
Empire of One
  • Typical Scenario
  • Products manufactured in China or India
  • Sent to a distribution center in Spain, Norway or
    Canada
  • Sold to customers in the UK, Germany, or Brazil
  • All controlled by one person

71
Empire of One
  • Outsource Everything
  • Manufacturing
  • Operations
  • Marketing
  • Distribution
  • Bookkeeping
  • Legal

72
Empire of One
  • Eliminate HR problems
  • Freedom to travel
  • Control your own destiny

73
Empire of One
  • Examples
  • SuperStructs
  • Cuff Daddy
  • Monkey-Toes
  • Licorice International

74
Business Colonies
  • The cost of employment will continue to rise
  • We are putting more and more power into the hands
    of the individual

75
Business Colonies
  • Business projects will form and disappear
    organically
  • Groupings of project people working together as
    projects form, complete, and disappear

76
Business Colonies
  • Business colonies will form around diverse
    industries - photonics, nanotech, biotech,
    consumer products, IT niches and many more

77
Business Colonies
78
Global Trend 6
  • Social Reform

79
Living Single
  • 2005 was the first year in the U.S. when over 50
    of women reported being single
  • Over 50 increase in the number of people living
    alone in the last 20 years

80
Marriage Trends
  • Marriages today are held together by emotions
    without the reinforcing glue of economic
    dependency

81
Marriage Trends
  • Raising children is an activity that has been
    increasingly decoupled from marriage

82
Counter Trend
  • Parents living with adult children grew 67
    percent to 3.6 million since 2000

83
Critical Trend
  • Global Population Decline

84
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85
Critical Trends
  • Average life expectancy is increasing 2.5 years
    every decade
  • Living longer, fewer kids

Ken Dykwald
86
Critical Trends
  • Declining Fertility Rates
  • Fertility decline seen in Mexico - plummeting
    fertility rate from 6.5 in 1970 to 2.2 today
  • World average declined from 4.5 to 2.5
  • Mexico could face population declines by as early
    as 2030

AARP
87
Critical Trends
  • Blended Society Today over 3 million
    marriages in the US are interracial a 1,000
    increase in the past 30 years.

88
Global Trend 7
  • Transition from a Product-Based Economy to an
    Experience-Based Economy

89
Experience Based Economy
  • Reputations are based on our experiences, not
    what we own
  • Experiences are now valued more than the product
    itself

Extreme Ironing
90
The Ultimate Experience?
91
The Ultimate Experience?
92
The Ultimate Experience?
  • Hangboarding

93
The Ultimate Experience?
94
Ultimate Dining Experience
95
Ultimate Dining Experience
96
The Ultimate Experience?
  • The Sultans Elephant

97
The Ultimate Experience?Dreamhack in Sweden 2006
98
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99
Global Trend 8
  • Emerging New Power ToolPrize Competitions

100
1850 - Popularity of Billiards
101
Michael Phelan
  • The Father of American Billiards

102
1859
  • Michael Phelan's Billiard Saloon

103
Phelan Collender
  • One of Americas largest billiard companies

104
Phelan and Collander
  • Ivory billiard balls

105
1863
  • 100,000 elephants per year were being killed
    to meet the growing demand for billiard balls

106
1863
  • They could only get eight billiard balls from
    a single elephant

107
The Phelan and Collander Prize
  • 1863 A prize of 10,000 to for the first person
    who could devise an alternative to ivory for
    billiard balls

108
1869 - John Wesley Hyatt
  • Inventor of Celluloid
  • Won the 10,000 prize
  • Later founded the Albany Billiard Ball Company

109
Albany Billiard Ball Company
  • Workers turning rough billiard balls in lathes

110
Many Happy Elephants
111
The Power of the Prize
  • Many times in the past prizes have been used to
    alter the course of history

112
1919 Orteig Prize
  • 1927 - 25,000 won by Charles Lindbergh

113
1959 Kremer Prize
  • 1979 - 95,000 prize won by Paul MacCready for
    the Gossamer Albatros

114
1980 Fredkin Prize
  • 1997 - 100,000 prize (later raised to 1.1
    million) IBM vs. Garry Kasparov - won by IBMs
    Deep Blue

115
1996 Ansari X-Prize
2004 - 10 million prize won by Paul Allen and
Burt Rutan
116
2002 DARPA Grand Challenge
  • 2005 The first 2 million prize won by
    Stanford Universitys Stanley Team

117
The Most Famous Prize
  • The most famous prizes today are the Nobel Prizes
  • They are backward-looking

118
Trained to Compete
  • People are very good at competing. But in most
    fields, we have been running a race without a
    finish line.

119
Creating New Challenges
  • So how do we build new challenges?
  • How do we use this process to solve some of the
    worlds biggest problems?

120
Tapping into the Hive Mind
  • Solving some of the worlds biggest problems will
    require us to find a way to tap into the
    collective intelligence of large groups of people
  • Collective Consciousness
  • Universal Mind
  • Group Mind

121
What if
  • we could solve some of the worlds biggest
    problems with prize competitions?

122
What if
  • we created a competition for human-safe
    mosquitoes?

that feed off of other mosquitoes!
123
What if
  • we created a competition for a new way to get
    cheap, clean drinking water from the ocean

124
What if
  • we created a competition for Maglev Wind
    Turbines that could power an entire city for the
    next 500 years?

125
What if
  • we created a competition for controlling the
    force of hurricanes?

126
What if
  • we created a competition for finding cures to
    cancer, diabetes, and heart disease?

127
What if
  • we created a competition for reinventing our
    financial systems?

128
What if
  • we could solve some of the worlds worst
    conflicts with a prize competitions?

129
Prize Competitions
  • Draw attention to specific problems
  • Focus efforts on a single goal
  • Circumvent political lobbies and political will
  • Transition the accomplishments from academia to
    the entrepreneurs

130
Android Phone Competition

131
Android Phone Competition
  • 10M in prize money to fund new applications for
    the Google Android Phone
  • Over 1,700 applications available when product
    was introduced

132
Using Prizes as a Power Tool for Innovation
  • Sponsoring prizes as a social cause
  • Shows you care about your customers
  • Ties your brand with important causes
  • Creating prizes that engage your customers in the
    product development process
  • Shows respect for their ideas
  • Enters the mind through a different doorway
  • Occupy far greater mindshare

133
Mark Twain
  • A man who carries a cat by the tail learns
    something he can learn in no other way 

134
Thomas FreySenior Futurist
Emerging TrendsGlobal Trends the New
Innovation Landscape
  • DaVinci Institute
  • PO Box 270315
  • Louisville, CO 80027
  • (303) 666-4133
  • dr2tom_at_davinciinstitute.com

135
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136
Will Rogers
  • Colleges ain't what they used to be and never
    was. -- Will Rogers

137
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