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Moores Law and Its Future

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Title: Moores Law and Its Future


1
Moores Law and Its Future
  • Mark Clements

2
This Week Moores Law
  • History of Transistors and circuits
  • The Integrated circuit manufacturing process
  • Moore Law is announced
  • Benefits of ICs
  • Extrapolating Moores Law to its conclusion
  • Technological advances
  • Moores Law version 2?

3
Discrete Transistors and Circuits
  • The transistor succeeded the valve in the late
    1940s
  • Electronic engineers began to design complex
    circuits using discrete components transistors,
    resistors, capacitors
  • Performance and other problems were noticed due
    to the number of separate components
  • Circuits were unreliable and heavy
  • High power consumption long time to assemble
  • Expensive to produce

4
The Solution Integrated Circuits
  • Build entire circuit on a wafer of silicon
  • Use masking and spraying techniques in
    manufacture
  • Pure silicon wafers made from large crystals of
    silicon
  • Areas of silicon doped with suitable elements
    e.g. Be
  • Conductive tracks made from aluminium
  • Use this technique to produce other components
    e.g. capacitors and resistors on the same wafer

5
Problems solved
  • Inter-device distances reduced faster circuits
  • Lightweight circuits suitable for space travel
  • Cheaper assembly cost after recovery of RD
    costs
  • Identical circuit properties better matching
  • Less power required less heat dissipated
  • Smaller circuits smaller devices could be built

6
Gordon Moore - Observations
  • Gordon Moore worked for Fairchild Semiconductors
  • He noticed a trend in IC manufacture
  • Every 2 years the number of components on an area
    of silicon doubled
  • He published this work in 1965 known as Moores
    Law
  • His predictions were for 10 years into the future
  • His work predicted personal computers and fast
    telecommunication networks
  • Sources vary regarding time period

7
Graph of Moores Law
8
IC Technologies
Small Scale Integration (SSI) combined around 10
discrete components onto 5mm square of silicon
substrate. SSI led to Medium Scale Integration
(MSI), then Large Scale Integration (LSI) with
many thousands of components in the same area of
silicon. Very Large Scale Integration (VLSI)
provided the means to implement around 1 million
components per chip. Current technology produces
silicon wafers with around 50 million components
per chip. The Pentium 4 has around 55 million
components on the wafer (2003).
9
IC Technology
10
Why does the law exist?
  • Some of the factors that contribute to Moores
    Law
  • Manufacturers wishing to keep up with the law
  • Competition between manufacturers
  • Successive technologies providing better design
    tools
  • Customer demand for better products
  • Mans constant struggle to advance knowledge
  • There may be other factors too

11
The Next Step
Intel have announced that they have the
technology to produce microprocessors containing
more than 400 million transistors, running at 10
gigahertz and operating at less than one volt, in
the next five to ten years. This is in line with
Moores law
12
Shrinking the Size of a Component
  • How small can a component become?
  • What limits the size of a device?
  • What do we make the devices from?
  • Do quantum effects have an influence here?
  • If there is a limit, what happens to Moores Law?

13
The Current Limitations
  • Circuits cannot be reduced beyond atomic size
  • Quantum effects reduce the reliability as size
    decreases
  • Lithographic techniques become more complex as
    the size of components becomes smaller than the
    wavelength of light
  • Speed of electrical signals is finite
  • This suggests that Moores Law will finally end

14
Lateral Thinking
  • To improve the performance of devices, new
    technologies are in development
  • Quantum storage (quantum data registers - a
    faster, more efficient way to store and retrieve
    data than the binary system we use today)
  • Light operated transistors
  • Electro-optical polymers and more are showing new
    techniques for achieving the ever higher
    performance demanded by industry and consumers

15
The Future of ICs
  • Moore acknowledged that his "law" won't hold
    forever. He asserted that the right technological
    approaches can delay "forever", extending the
    longevity of his original prediction.
  • Intel are working on new ideas such as SiGe and
    strained silicon to delay the end of Moores Law
  • Designing transistors that switch at speeds
    around THz (can switch on and off a trillion
    times per second)
  • The advances continue!

16
The End of the Line?
  • It is obvious that technology will improve
  • We may meet the lower size limit of a transistor
  • Therefore the abilities of the transistor itself
    will have to improve instead
  • Faster switching, lower power designs etc.
  • ICs still improve

17
Moores Law version 2?
  • After his law is no longer valid what can we
    use to measure trends?
  • Component density?
  • No it would be fairly constant
  • Performance?
  • Yes but which metric?
  • Switching rate?
  • Individual or bulk?
  • Rise time?
  • Access time or read/ write time
  • Other measurable attributes

18
Moore version 2s metric(s)
  • Technological advances will continue as long as
    there is demand for digital devices
  • It is immaterial whether the component density
    limit is reached
  • Another metric will have to be chosen to allow
    the IC evolution to be mapped and to allow valid
    predictions to be made
  • Which metric this is extremely complex to choose

19
Conclusion
  • Moores law will eventually reach its inevitable
    conclusion
  • Technology will continue to advance
  • ICs with improved properties will be manufactured
  • Another metric will need to be chosen to allow
    the future trends to be mapped and predicted
  • The complexity of current IC design means this
    choice will be difficult

20
References
  • http//www.intel.com/labs/features/mi03031.htmext
    end
  • http//www.intel.com/netcomms/technologies/manuf.h
    tm?iidtechtrendstech_manuf_expertise
  • http//www.intel.com/research/silicon/mooreslaw.ht
    m
  • http//www.intel.com/labs/features/mi03031.htm
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