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Climate Change in Canada's Ecosystems: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Jay R' Malcolm, Faculty of Fo

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Title: Climate Change in Canada's Ecosystems: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Jay R' Malcolm, Faculty of Fo


1
Climate Change in Canada's Ecosystems The Good,
the Bad, and the Ugly Jay R. Malcolm, Faculty of
Forestry
2004
1875
The Pasterze, Austria's longest glacier
2
  • PART 1
  • Brief background on global warming the
    phenomenon and the evidence
  • PART 2
  • Case studies how bad might it be?
    1) projected extinctions in global
    hotspots 2) projected changes in
    Ontario's forests
  • PART 3
  • Optimistic or pessimistic?

3
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4
IPCC 4th Assessment
5
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6
Current
(kyr)
7
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8
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9
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10
Goddard Space Flight Center
11
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12
  • "High certainty" that global warming is affecting
    living systems
  • (increases in boreal growing seasons shifts of
    geographic ranges upward and pole-ward earlier
    breeding seasons true of 100s of species)

13
Climate change caught in the act…
14
In 2003 captured 80 km NW of North Bay
350 individuals captured in 2002-2003 (APP)
Approximate historic range
15
2004 not a single individual north of the
historic range
ZERO!
16
cold winter proceeding peak
cold winter proceeding crash
crash preceded by bad mast year though (energetic
bottleneck)
17
-69 alleles from the 5 microsatellite loci
-mtDNA suggests ? G. volans mating with ? G.
sabrinus
Garroway et al. in press, GCB
18
so what?
19
IPCC in 1995 the balance of evidence suggests
that there is a discernible human influence on
the climate General Circulation Models
(GCMs) -equations of momentum, mass, moisture,
and energy for a grid of the earth In order to
get the best match between observations and model
predictions, you need to incorporate greenhouse
gases
20
GHG only
GHG sulphate aerosols
21
Agreement between climate model incorporating
global aerosol cooling and the observed
temperature record
22
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24
The future….
Source IPCC
25
2095
relative to 1990, A1B scenario
26
PART 2 How bad might it be?
  • enormous warming from an ecological viewpoint
  • climate plays a fundamental role in determining
    the composition and functioning of ecosystems

27
Spruce pollen record (from the National Pollen
Database)
28
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29
Ecosystem change, but also net area reductions
for certain habitat types
30
1) Examine endemic-rich ecosystems worldwide
24 Hotspots 44 of plant species and 35 of
vertebrate species in lt2 of the land area
31
Habitat loss and resulting species extinctions
Current area (ab) vs. future area (bc)
"Law" in ecology
32
  • Use of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and
    Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to model the
    distribution of future vegetation types (and by
    SAR, species richness)
  • Allow GCM to stabilize under pre-industrial CO2
    concentrations
  • Allow GCM to stabilize under two times CO2
    concentrations
  • Calculate climate deltas (differences between the
    two)
  • Add the deltas to the current climate to generate
    the future climate
  • Compare modeled vegetation distributions between
    the current and future climates

33
Based on just climate, one can do a pretty good
job of predicting major habitat types
34
Coupled GCMs and GVMs as a tool
Current Climate (GVM MAPSS)
Doubled-CO2 Climate (Hadley Centre, with
sulphate aerosol cooling) (GVM MAPSS)
35
  • Sensitivity Analyses
  • Range of projections 14 combinations of GCMs and
    GVMs under 1CO2 and 2CO2 climates
  • Habitat breadth 10 biome types vs. the original
    biome classification of the GVM (18 types for
    BIOME3, 45 types for MAPSS)
  • Perfect vs. zero migration

36
Zero migration scenario
37
Percent loss of endemics from 24 hotspots
Perfect migration
38
Percent loss of endemics from 24 hotspots Zero
migration
39
Sensitivity factors approximately equal in
influencing variation in number of extinctions in
hotspots GVM (gtgtGCM) 32-43 Tolerances
27-31 Migration 30-35 Bootstrap
comparisons suggest that as a group, hotspots are
not unusually sensitive
40
How does warming-induced habitat loss compare
with that due to deforestation?
A threat on par with tropical deforestation,
which is generally recognized as the greatest
threat to biodiversity on the planet
41
2) Ontario's future tree communities
Black spruce
42
2095
43
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44
Forest types
45
2090
46
Part 3 Pessimistic or optimistic?
Analysis Overly Optimistic
Analysis Overly Pessimistic
47
Part 3 Pessimistic or optimistic?
Analysis Overly Optimistic
Analysis Overly Pessimistic
48
How fast is warming induced migration anyway?
49
cpDNA
Pollen
-ancestors of northerly populations much closer
to the ice front that previously thought -pollen
data does not pick up these sparse populations
50
Calculating future rates
Migration rate distance time period
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Percent of 14 models showing high rates
(gt1,000 m/yr)
Finland (1st place)59.9 Canada (8th) 33.1
53
Barriers to migration
54
Increase in required migration rates due to human
development
55
Required migration of Ontario's trees
Average rate gt3,000 m/yr CSIROMk2-A2 average
5,800 m/yr (!) -poorly understood, but only the
weediest plants capable of such rates!
56
No migration limitation
Migration limitation
57
No migration limitation
Migrationlimitation
58
Analysis Overly Optimistic
Analysis Overly Pessimistic
59
-appears to be a widespread effect across the
northern hemisphere -moisture deficit implicated
in Alaska, increased snow depth due to warmer
winters in Siberia
(Barber et al., 2000 Juday et al., 2003)
60
Sw, Fairbanks, Alaska -among the most
commercially valuable in boreal Alaska
Northern Labrador -more northerly part of range
where water less likely to be limiting
(Barber et al., 2004, DArrigo et al., 1996)
61
-less data for Sb both BOREAS and central Alaska
work in agreement though, suggesting widespread
decline -conspicuous aspen dieback in parts
western Canada
(Juday and Barber, 2005)
62
Seasonal photosynthetic activity 1982 through 2003
Goetz, Scott J. et al. (2005) Proc. Natl. Acad.
Sci. USA 102, 13521-13525
63
Analysis Overly Optimistic
Analysis Overly Pessimistic
64
CO2 emissions (fossil-fuel burning and industrial
processes) increasing at 1.1 yr -1 1990-1999
gt3 yr -1 2000-2004
Raupach et al. 2007 PNAS, Roulet in litt.
65
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