11' Global Warming, Uncertainty, Irreversibility

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11.Global Warming, Uncertainty, Irreversibility
LongTerm Policymaking (SPRING 2002)

• Larry D. Sanders

Dept. of Ag Economics Oklahoma State
University
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INTRODUCTION (ch. 10 Hackett)

• Purpose
• to become aware of the concept of uncertainty
  irreversibility with respect to environmental
  natural resource policies
• Learning Objectives. To understand/become aware
  of
• 1. To understand uncertainty irreversibility.
• 2. To become aware of the issue of global
  warming.
• 3. To consider the policy options with respect
  to
• possibly irreversible actions/events such as
  global
• warming.

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Background on concepts

• Uncertainty--involves the probability that some
  event/action will or will not occur
• precipitation
• new technology
• Irreversibility--suggests that some action/event
  will transform a resource to the extent it cannot
  be returned to its original state, limiting
  future options
• clear-cutting a forest
• draining a wetland
• damming a river

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Risk Perceptions may vary w/knowledge, severity
of result, whether individual choice . . .
Unknown Risk
Desire for regulation
Nitrogen Fertilizers
Nitrites
x
x
x
RadioactiveWaste
x
Pesticides
x
X Global warming
Lead Paint
x
DDT
Caffeine
Minor Risk
x
Severe Risk
x
x
Skate- boarding
Smoking
x
Nuclear War
Rec. Boating
x
x
Commercial Flying
x
Handguns
Adapted from Carlson et al. Agricultural
Environmental Resource Economics, 1993 also
Sanders
Known Risk
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Case Study Global Warming--background

• Greenhouse gases--carbon dioxide,
  chlorofluorocarbons, methane, nitrous oxide,
  ozone, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorinated carbons
• Their function--filter solar energy, limiting
  infrared energy radiated back in to space
• Greenhouse effect--as greenhouse gas
  concentration increases, capturing of infrared
  energy increases, temperatures are likely to
  rise

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The Importance of Greenhouse Gases

• Provides a blanket that insulates the Earth by
  trapping heat, a lot like panes of glass in a
  greenhouse. . . part of what makes the planet of
  work.
• Without greenhouse gases, the Earth would be
  much too cold for comfort . . . problem now is
  that humans are thickening the blanket . . . .
  . . natures thermostat is nudged up.
• --From cnn.com special section on global warming
  article Messing with the thermostat can be
  devastating, Miles OObrien, November 27, 1997.

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The Claims about Global Warming Its
Real Skeptical

• Sea level will rise 2-3 feet, covering many
  islands, changing coast lines contaminating
  water supplies
• Southern US climate becomes tropical changing ag
  production
• Northern US climate moderates, more like Southern
  US today
• Increase in heat-related deaths/diseases
  (malaria, dengue fever)

• Only 24 of public is concerned
• Models under-estimate complex global ecosystem
  (cant predict 7 days out, much less years)
• Models under-estimate the technological fix
  market economics
• Doubtful that government intervention will do
  anything but create more immediate problems

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Case Study Global Warming --Science in
Conflict

• Scientists continue to debate both
• 1. whether global warming is in fact occurring,
  
• 2. the level of severity of impact
• Trade-offs
• 1. If predictions are true nothing done to
  stop it, large-scale changes in global climate
  that will severely affect the planet our
  geo-political-economic system.
• 2. If predictions are not true but actions are
  taken to minimize global warming (Kyoto
  Agreement), wide-scale economic impacts on the US
  will reduce competitiveness (30-50 increase in
  fuel utility bills).

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If Global Warming Perceived as Market Failure
SMCs
SMCp
Price
P2
DMBpMVpMWTPpMBs
P1
Quantity
Q2
Q1
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Major Contributors to Greenhouse Gases

• Per Capita Energy
• Country Emissions () Consumption (mil. Btu)
• US 19 335
• China 10
• Japan 5 171
• Brazil 4 33
• Germany 4
• India 4
• UK 2 169
• Indonesia 2
• Italy 2

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Issues Options with Global Warming

• KEY ISSUES
• Time Perspective?
• Sources?
• Geography (Trans-national?)
• Irreversibility?
• Science?
• FREE MARKET
• RESEARCH EXTENSION
• REGULATION
• SUBSIDIES

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Other Sources

• http//cnn.com/TECH
• (see interactive features see global warming
  101)