Horse Racing Simulation System

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• Horse Racing Simulation System
• Presented By Ting Hin Chau
• Supervised By Professor Michael R. Lyu
• April 2004

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Agenda

• Objectives of Project
• Background of Horse Racing
• Major Business Functions of Objects
• System Design
• Simulation Algorithm
• Conclusion
• Q A

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Objectives
Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm

• To demonstrate CORBA implementation
• To demonstrate horse racing simulation

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Background of Horse Racing

• Jockey Club
• Stable
• Gambler

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Background of Horse Racing

• Inefficient Procedures
• Race Registration Paper Work
• Betting Off-course betting branches

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Background of Horse Racing

• Difficult Result Prediction
• Personal Judgement

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Business Functions

• Jockey Club
• Formulating Horse Racing Schedule
• Schedule Query by Stable
• Processing Horse Registration for a Race by
  Stable

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Business Functions

• Jockey Club
• Race Query by Gamblers
• Accepting Bets from Gamblers
• Calculating Odds (Appendix 1)
• Running Races
• Dividend Payout

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Business Functions

• Stable
• Horse Query by Gamblers
• Horse Registration for a Race

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Business Functions

• Gambler
• Depositing Money to Betting Account
• Placing Bets

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
System Design

• Interaction

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
System Design

• Object Request Broker
• VisiBroker for Java 4.0
• Service Lookup
• Object Instantiation
• Connection Setup between Client and Server
  Objects

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
System Design

• Object Request Broker

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
System Design

• Server Objects
• Interfaces defined in CORBA/IDL

interface Buyer attribute unsigned
longBuyerID attribute stringBuyerPassword attrib
ute stringBuyerName attribute floatBalance attri
bute stringAccountNumber exception
NotEnoughMoneyInAccount void deposit(in
float amount) void withdraw(in unsigned long
amount) raises(NotEnoughMoneyInAccount) void
edit(in string buyerName, in string
buyerPassword, in string accountNumber)
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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
System Design

• CORBA/IDL to Java Mapping

IDL Java
module package
interface interface
operation method
attribute method pair
exception exception
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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
System Design

• idl2java
• Interface file
• Helper file
• Holder file
• Stub file
• POA file

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
System Design

• Server Objects
• Buyer
• BuyerProcessor
• Stable
• StableProcessor
• Race

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
System Design

• Client GUI
• RaceAdminClient
• StableClient
• BuyerClient

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
System Design

• Client GUI
• RaceAdminClient

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
System Design

• Client GUI
• StableClient

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
System Design

• Client GUI
• BuyerClient

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
System Design

• Database Server
• Oracle 8i
• Persistent storage of data
• Maintaining data integrity
• E-R diagram (Appendix 2)

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Simulation Algorithm

• Monte Carlo Simulation
• Simulation with a built-in random process
• Different possible outcomes

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Simulation Algorithm

• Steps of Simulation (Appendix 3)
• 1. Data Input
• Gather data on historical ranks of a horse
• Transform these ranks to a value R/N, which is
  rank/number of horses in the race

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Simulation Algorithm

• Steps of Simulation
• 2. Distribution Construction
• Form frequency distribution
• Form probability distribution
• Form cumulative probability distribution

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Simulation Algorithm

• Steps of Simulation

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Simulation Algorithm

• Steps of Simulation
• 3. Draw a sample from distribution
• Generate a random number N from 0 to 1
• N refers to P(X lt x), where X is R/N

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Simulation Algorithm

• Steps of Simulation

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Simulation Algorithm

• Steps of Simulation
• 4. Compare R/N across horses
• Sort the R/N values of the horses in a race
• A horse with a smaller R/N beats out a horse with
  a higher R/N

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Simulation Algorithm

• Assumptions of Simulation
• Independent distribution of R/N
• Factors including location of racecourse, lane,
  and jockey are insignificant
• Data from the 10 most recent races are used

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Conclusion

• CORBA
• Language independent
• Different platforms
• ORB expensive

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Conclusion

• Simulation
• Mimics the random factor in horse racing
• Choice of size of distribution is hard to
  determine
• Error of prediction can be estimated

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Appendix 1

• Calculation of Odds
• 1. Win Odds
• dw ?bi / bw
• 2. Place Odds
• dw1 (?bi - bw1 - bw2 - bw3) /( 3 bw1) 1

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Appendix 2
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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Appendix 3

• Simulation Calculation

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Appendix 3

• Simulation Calculation

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Appendix 3

• Simulation Calculation

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Appendix 3

• Simulation Calculation
• Two points on the cumulative distribution (x1,
  y1) and (x2, y2), for instance, for horse 1, they
  correspond to (0.25, 0.5) and (0.25, 0.6), will
  be used to calculate the final score of a horse
  by linear equation , based on the random number
  generated.

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Appendix 3

• Simulation Calculation
• For horse 1, point 1 (x1, y1) is (0.4, 0.2) and
  point 2 (x2, y2) is (0.5, 03)
• R/N of horse 1
• (rand1-y1)((x2-x1)/(y2-y1)) x1
• (0.5379783655654367 0.2) (0.25
  0.25)/(0.6-0.5) 0.25
• 0.25

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Appendix 3

• Simulation Calculation
• For horse 2, point 1 (x1, y1) is (0.4, 0.2) and
  point 2 (x2, y2) is (0.5, 0.3).
• R/N of horse 2
• (rand2-y1)((x2-x1)/(y2-y1)) x1
• (0.21096296234313094 0.2) (0.5
  0.4)/(0.3-0.2) 0.4
• 0.410962962

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Appendix 3

• Simulation Calculation
• For horse 3, point 1 (x1, y1) is (0, 0) and point
  2 (x2, y2) is (0.125, 0.1).
• R/N of horse 3
• (rand2-y1)((x2-x1)/(y2-y1)) x1
• (0.02229991816731558 0) (0.125 0)/(0.1-0)
  0
• 0.027874898

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Objectives / Background / Business Functions /
System Design / Simulation Algorithm
Appendix 3

• Simulation Calculation
• For horse 4, point 1 (x1, y1) is (0.5355, 0.4)
  and point 2 (x2, y2) is (0.545455, 0.5).
• R/N of horse 3
• (rand2-y1)((x2-x1)/(y2-y1)) x1
• (0.4920612612595172 0.4) (0.545455
  0.5355)/(0.5-0.4) 0.5355
• 0.544664699