Global Environmental Governance

1
Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental
Change What next The IDGEC New Directions
Initiative
Frank Biermann, Vrije Univ. Amsterdam
2

• The future directions will be a function of two
  developments since IDGEC was created in the
  mid-1990s
• (1) The global change community has changed.
• (2) IDGEC has changed (We do have results! ?)

3
Slide on ESSP
Since IDGECs creation, the Earth System
Science Partnership has been created
4
Findings from the Earth System Science
Partnership
The earth operates well outside the normal state
exhibited over the past 500,000 years.
Human activities could trigger severe
consequences for Earths environment
potentially switching the Earth System to
alternative modes of operation that may prove
irreversible and inhospitable to humans.
5
Politics in the Anthropocene
The Earth System Science Partnership maintains
that urgently needed are
an ethical framework for global stewardship and
strategies for Earth System management.
6
An Emergent Earth System Governance?
7

• Planetary co-evolution of humans and nature
• Global temperature rise below 2 degree celcius
• Limit sea-level rise to 1 meter
• Reduce by half the proportion of people without
  sustainable access to safe drinking water
• Reduce by half the proportion of people who
  suffer from hunger

8
Earth system governance as a description of
what we do and what is (increasingly)
happening? the sum of the formal and informal
rule systems and actor-networks at all levels of
human society (from local to global) that are
set up in order to influence the co-evolution of
human and natural systems at planetary scale in a
way that secures the sustainable development of
human society
9
Governance and Earth System Analysis

• But how does earth system governance relate to
  the larger endeavour of earth system analysis?
• Some see earth system analysis as a science
  in statu nascendi (e.g., Schellnhuber)
• defined as transdisciplinary systems analysis
  based on planetary monitoring, global modelling
  and simulation, with a genuine purpose, namely
  the satisfactory coevolution of the ecosphere
  and the anthroposphere in the times of Global
  Change.

10
Earth System Analysis and Analysts
11
Integrated Earth System Analysis
Solar System

• From J. Schellnhuber in Nature 2000

Ocean Dynamics
H U M A N S
Marine biochemistry
Terrestrial Ecosystems
Tropospheric chemistry
12
Integrated Earth System Governance
International Governance
Multilevel Governance
P H Y S I C S
National Politics
Cultures and Belief Systems
Local Governance
13
Two Pillars in Global Change Research
Earth System Analysis
Earth System Governance
14
Earth System Governance

• The Concept
• Problem Structures of Earth System Governance
• Research Areas
• Methods

15
Problem Structure I Uncertainty

• Analytical Uncertainty
• Lack of knowledge of key earth system
  parameters.
• Normative Uncertainty
• Lack of consensus on fundamental problem frames
  and normative principles.

16
Problem Structure II Functional Interdependence
Problem areas of earth system governance are
interlinked. This requires integrated solutions
17
Problem Structure III Spatial Interdependence
Causation and effect in different regions are
interlinked. This requires co-operative solutions.
18
Problem Structure IV Temporal Interdependence
Causation and effect occur at different
timescales. This requires new forms of
legitimisation across time
19
Problem Structure V Extreme Effects

• Earth system transformation could result in new
  states of the system with extreme effects for
  societies

20
Earth System Governance

• The Concept
• Problem Structures of Earth System Governance
• Research Areas
• Methods

21
Research Challenges Beyond single institutions
Architecture
22
Institutional Architecture(s) Beyond single
environmental institutions

• Beyond single environmental institutions
• Institutional interaction and interplay
• Increasing density of institutional arrangements
• Institutional complexes institutional
  constellations
• Beyond environmental institutions
• Non-environmental institutions
• Non-intended effects
• Non-institutions (focus on problems and
  functions)
• Architectures across the scales and scalar
  politics
• Conditions for, and limits of, scaling
• Architectures for vertical interplay
• Overarching/crosscutting norms and principles

23
II. Research Challenge Agency Beyond the State

• The role of (nonstate) actors in institutions
• The role of nonstate institutions

• How can we design new forms of participatory
  governance
• that are effective and legitimate?

24
Agency Beyond the State

• The influence of institutions on states beyond
  the OECD
• The influence of institutions on non-state actors
• The influence of non-state actors on institutions
• Business, environmentalists, scientists
• Social movements global climate policy movement
• The influence of non-state institutions
• E.g., Forest Stewardship Council
• The influence of steering mechanisms that are not
  institutions
• Networks, partnerships, etc.

25
III. Research Challenge Adaptiveness
Earth system transformation places new burdens on
core functions of the state, which must evolve
into an adaptive state.
26
III. Research Challenge Adaptiveness
How to create institutions that are adaptive to
threshold and cascading effects misfits?
Causes and consequences of institutional dynamics?
Causes and consequences of institutional learning?
27
IV. Research Challenge Accountability
Global environmental governance must be perceived
as legitimate by all stakeholders.
All actions and representatives must be
accountable.
This is the quest for democratic global
governance.
28
V. Research Challenge Allocation
Earth system governance requires agreement of all
stakeholders that the allocation of costs and
benefits is fair.
In the 21st century, international allocation
mechanisms will become key questions for
scientists and decision-makers.
29
V. Research Challenge Allocation
Allocation as independent variable Variance in
performance through different modes of allocation
Allocation as dependent variable Allocative
effects of institutions
30
V. Research Challenge Allocation
To the extent that institutions are
effective Who bears the costs? To the extent
that institutions fail Who has to suffer?
31
Five potential research areas
32
Analysis and Assessment

• Research on earth system governance requires a
  particular research practice, including
• A holistic analytical perspective to synthesise a
  mosaic of local, national, regional and global
  political processes.
• A global approach to the organisation of research
  to make use of local knowledge, values and
  insights.
• A particular methodology ....

33
Analysis and Assessment (II)

• How can institutional research contribute to, and
  integrate with, model-driven research programmes?
• Quantification and computer-based modelling are
  often problematic for institutional research.
• complexity of relevant variables at multiple
  levels
• difficulties in quantifying social concepts
• More conceptual work and experimentation is
  needed.

34
Analysis and Assessment (III)

• Interdisciplinarity that links all relevant
  social sciences, but draws on findings from
  natural science as well
• Ability to analyse governance systems that
  respond to merely predicted emergencies that
  might exceed what is known today
• Ability to deal with normative uncertainty, for
  example through participatory research and
  assessment that integrates lay-experts in
  academic research programmes
• Reflexivity regarding the contextual embeddedness
  of the researcher in time and cultural space,
  which requires new forms of diversity-management
  in global science

35
IN CONCLUSION ..

• We need your ideas..

36
All proposals and comments will be welcomed
if they start with an a ?
37
... will be studied in detail ....
38
... will be answered promptly ....
39
h
Earth System Governancea crosscutting theme of
global change research
Frank Biermann
Thank you