Intro IR slide 1

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Introduction to International Relations (Honors)

• Note Card
• Name
• Major
• Other PS courses ?
• Post Grad Plans
• Other info
• Syllabus
• Texts

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News on the Web

• Read daily news source
• Be prepared to discuss news issues that are
  either relevant to readings or very topical.

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Current Events Quiz

• Who is?
• Vice President of US
• Secretary of State
• Secretary of Defense
• National Security Advisor
• Secretary of Treasury
• Who is leader of
• Great Britain
• West Germany
• France
• Japan
• Russia
• Mexico

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Common International ACRONYMS

• OPEC
• NATO
• WTO
• SALT
• START
• NMD
• WMD

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Geography

• Where are
• Kampuchea
• Belize
• Nauru
• Namibia
• Qatar

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Current Events Answers

• Who is?
• Vice President of US - Richard Cheney
  
• Secretary of State Colin Powell
• Secretary of Treasury John Snow
• Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld
• National Security Advisor Condaleza Rice
• Who is leader of
• Great Britain Tony Blair (Prime Minister)
• West Germany - Gerhard Schroeder (Chancellor)
• France - Jacques Chirac (President)
• Japan - Junichiro Koizumi (President)
• Russia - Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin (President)
• Mexico - Vicente Fox Quesada (President)
• Saudi Arabia - King Fahd bin Abdul Aziz

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Common International ACRONYMS

• OPEC
• Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
• NATO
• North Atlantic Treaty Organization
• WTO
• World Trade Organization (or ??)
• SALT
• Strategic Arms Limitations Talks
• START
• Strategic Arms reduction Talks
• NMD
• National Missile Defense
• WMD
• Weapons of Mass Destruction

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Geography

• Where are
• Kampuchea formerly Cambodia
• Southeastern Asia, bordering the Gulf of
  Thailand, between Thailand, Vietnam, and Laos
• Belize
• Middle America, bordering the Caribbean Sea,
  between Guatemala and Mexico
• Nauru
• Oceania, island in the South Pacific Ocean, south
  of the Marshall Islands
• Namibia
• Southern Africa, bordering the South Atlantic
  Ocean, between Angola and South Africa
• Qatar
• Middle East, peninsula bordering the Persian Gulf
  and Saudi Arabia

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Historical Perspective on the Study of
International Relations

• How long have we studied IR?
• Gilgamesh
• http//novaonline.nv.cc.va.us/eli/eng251/gilgamesh
  study.htm
• The Iliad
• The Iliad (Sparknotes)
• Thucydides -
• The History of the Peloponnesian Wars

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Pre - WWI

• Traditional Diplomatic History
• Descriptive and Prescriptive
• Emphasis on the Uniqueness of events
• History is made by great men/women
• International law

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WWI - WWII

• Political Idealism (the optimists)
• Men are good, only institutions are evil
• Progress (as defined by absence of war) is
  possible
• The Neoidealists see conflict as the result of
  anarchy
• Appeal to justice power is in the printed word

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Post WWII to 1960's

• Political Realism
• (IR takes place in a state of Nature a la
  Hobbes where
• "Life is nasty, mean, cruel, brutish and short")
• Hobbes Leviathan
• Nations/men/women are motivated by a lust for
  power
• Nations act in their own self interest.
• Altruism doesnt exist.

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1960's to present

• The Behavioral/Scientific Study of Foreign Policy
• We are interested in
• General principles
• Cause and Effect
• Rigorous theory
• Measurement

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Theory
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Theory Hypothesis
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Theory Hypothesis Observatio
n
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Theory Analysis Hypothesis
Observation
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Theory Analysis Hypothesis
Observation
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Theory Deduction Analysis Hypoth
esis Induction Operationalization
Observation
Confirmation/ rejection
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Two views of the modern era

• The Great Leader
• The Grand View

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The Great Leader

• Great men do Great Deeds
• Apologies to Great Women ?
• No...because those who accept this thesis would
  have to claim that there have been few great
  women, or else no Great Historians to write about
  them.
• Ronald Reagan (the epitome of the Cold Warrior)
  is the savior of the free World. He confronted
  the Soviets and in the end, their system couldnt
  take the pressure. Gorbachev is a Saint/demon
  because he led the Russians to freedom/sell out
  their gains of the last half-century.

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The Grand View

• Events are the result of large scale demographic,
  economic and social forces in which leaders are
  simply recruited because they have the
  appropriate characteristics for that time and
  place.
• In the late 70's early 80's a frustrated and
  impotent American electorate turned to a forceful
  leader such as Ronald Reagan to galvanize opinion
  to take a harder line against Soviet expansion
  and Iranian terrorists.
• To this end, the rebuilt US force posture waged
  economic war upon the Soviet Union.
• The USSR, unable to effectively compete,
  overextended and its economy began to decline.
• This decline allowed dissidents to emerge and
  force an internal reorganization of the SU.

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Guiding Principles for Bueno de Mesquita

• The actions that leaders take to influence events
  are motivated by personal welfare and especially
  the desire to stay in office.
• International relations cannot be separated from
  domestic politics.
• Relations between nations and between leaders are
  driven by strategic considerations.

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Major Forces of Change in the Twenty-first Century

• There are several major influences that are
  important to consider in looking at the modern
  world
• The Cold war and its demise
• Personal History
• Look at Force Posture of military vis a vis Iraq
• Demographic Transition
• Population growth - the result of changes in
• Life Expectancy (death rate)
• Birthrates (fertility rate)
• Doubling time (rule of 72)
• Medicine
• SARS AIDS

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Major Forces of Change in the Twenty-first
Century (cont.)

• Food - scarcity and sufficiency
• Green Revolution
• Genetics
• Food security assessment
• Energy Transition
• Fossil Fuels
• Solar
• Renewables
• Nuclear Fusion ?

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Major Forces of Change in the Twenty-first
Century (cont.)

• The Global economy and the spread of
  industrialization
• Relative decline in US (and Russia)
• The growth of destructive potential and the
  accompanying paradoxical decline in the utility
  of military force.
• The increasing reliance on terrorism and
  Asymmetric warfare
• Social Mobility

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Major Forces of Change in the Twenty-first
Century (cont.)

• The expansion of democratization and/or market
  economies
• Where has democratization emerged?
• East Europe, Soviet Union
• Latin America, Philippines
• China Iran (casualties of process)
• Are these collapses of authoritarianism or
  socialism/communism, or are these the same things
• Have we seen the demise of communism?

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Major Forces of Change in the Twentieth Century
(Continued)

• Environmental Impacts
• Acid rain
• Ozone
• Global warming/global climate change
• The expansion of information technology
• The WWW
• Costs of information acquisition have dropped
  tremendously
• The wireless world

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An Introduction to the Idea of Levels of Analysis

• Causes of WWII
• Peace treaty of Versailles
• Reparations too severe
• loss of territory, pride
• Restrictions on German Military
• Economy
• hyperinflation
• Lack of leader for the world economy
• Domestic turmoil
• scapegoat
• Charismatic leadership desired
• Hitler
• charismatic personality
• perhaps mentally unbalanced

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Levels of Analysis - 3 levels

• The conventional paradigm
• The level of analysis refers to the units being
  described in the explanation
• Individual Level
• We fought WWII because Hitler was a charismatic
  and perhaps mentally disturbed leader
• Nation-State Level
• We fought WWII because Germany sought an external
  scapegoat for its internal domestic economic
  problems.
• International System Level
• We fought WWII because Treaty of Versailles
  prevented Germany from re-establishing itself as
  a key player in the Concert of Europe. The
  system was not restored to balance after WWI.

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Levels of Analysis - 6 levels

• Individual Level
• Personality
• Education
• Socialization
• Genetics
• Natural Attributes/Skills
• Health
• Reagan's age
• Soviet succession
• Idi Amin

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Levels of Analysis - 6 levels (cont.)

• Roles
• Institutional Interests
• Budgets
• Turf
• Training Perceptions
• Alexander Haig as Sec. of State

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Levels of Analysis - 6 levels (cont.)

• Governmental Structure
• Regime Type
• (1) Democratic regimes are responsive to public
  opinion
• (2) Authoritarian regimes may have fewer
  constraints
• Parliamentary systems may have foreign policy
  decision making separate from domestic head of
  state (i.e.. not cabinet level decision maker)
• Governmental Processes
• S.O.P.'s

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Levels of Analysis - 6 levels (cont.)

• Nation State Level
• Societal Characteristics
• Religion
• Northern Ireland, Lebanon, Sri Lanka, India, Iran
  (?)
• War on terror ?
• Culture
• Heterogeneity
• Historical development
• Ethical/religious tradition
• Domestic Turmoil
• Rise of Nazis
• Falkland Islands
• Resources
• Natural Resources
• Wealth
• Size, population, etc.
• Expectations
• Revolution of rising expectations

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Levels of Analysis - 6 levels (cont.)

• International Relations (Dyadic Relations)
• Alliance formation
• Trade
• Dependence/Interdependence
• Interaction processes
• Arms Races
• Escalation ladders
• Historical ties

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Levels of Analysis - 6 levels (cont.)

• The International System
• Polarity
• Polarization
• World Economy
• Globalization
• Global markets
• Global currency regimes
• Trade

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Levels of Analysis - 6 levels (cont.)

• Geopolitics
• Climate - Huntington/Ellsworth's optimal temp
  65-70
• Environmental challenge (Polynesia too easy, the
  tundra is too harsh)
• Geography
• Control of the Seas (Mahan)
• the Heartland (McKinder)
• Lebensraum (Germany Japan)
• Examples
• Persian Gulf Suez Canal
• the Horn of Africa the Alps
• Panama Canal Bering Strait
• English Channel Straits of Malacca

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Levels of Analysis - 6 levels (cont.)

• Technology
• Communications
• Computers
• Bioengineering
• Historical development
• Cycles
• Sunspots ?
• Long Cycles

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Sovereignty and the Security Dilemma

• Nation-States
• Legal term
• a nation-state possesses sovereignty over
  territory and people
• Generally, nation states have a geographical base
• (what about Palestinians, Gypsies, and prior to
  this century, the Jews)
• a common language
• (India, USSR, Switzerland)
• other - integrated economy, religion, 'national
  character' and some institutional framework
• (try to imagine a coup in the US)

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Hobbesian State of Nature

• Hobbes' Leviathan
• Leviathan's may be masters or servants, but they
  never yield to one another except through their
  own consent.
• they exist in a state of nature
• "Life is nasty, mean, cruel, brutish and short
• Became a working concept with Peace of Westphalia
  (1648)
• the signators limited the influence of the Holy
  Roman Empire over sovereign and 'impermeable'
  states
• The failure to agree about the extent of
  sovereignty is the stuff that wars are made of

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The Security Dilemma

• Nations exist in a state of nature and therefore
  their sovereignty is vulnerable to external
  attack
• If nations were to establish a hierarchical
  authority in the international system, they would
  be surrendering the very thing they wish to
  protect - their sovereignty.
• What about the UN?

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Power

• Power is a very illusive concept.
• We know it has something to do with capabilities.
• The Determinants of Power
• Tangible and intangible resources
• Geography
• Britain, USSR, US, Switzerland
• Natural Resources
• Population
• Wealth and military capability
• National will
• Leadership
• Government
• Power becomes difficult to assess
• Vietnam, Israel, Afghanistan, Terrorism.

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Great Powers

• Great Powers and Superpowers
• Intro Discussed Polarity and International
  System
• Great Powers are nations which have played roles
  in the international system which are more
  involved than simple size or power would account
  for
• List
• Britain 1815 -
• Russia, USSR 1815 -
• France 1815 -
• Prussia, Germany 1815 - 1945
• Austria-Hungary 1815 - 1918
• Italy 1870 - 1943
• US 1900 -
• Japan 1904 - 1945
• China 1945 -

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What makes a Great Power

• Recruitment Characteristics/ "Membership"
• Diplomatic Politics
• Participant in the Concert of Europe
• Membership in the Council of the League of
  Nations
• Security Council of the United Nations
• Power Politics
• Military Capability
• Nuclear Capability
• In return for this leadership role they are
  supposed to provide a collective good - security.

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Nuclear Weapons

• The Nuclear Club
• US Atomic bomb August 1945
  Thermonuclear
• SU Atomic Thermonuclear
• UK Atomic Thermonuclear
• France Atomic Thermonuclear
• China Atomic Thermonuclear
• India
• Pakistan
• Possibles/Probables/Capables
• Israel
• South Africa
• Iran
• North Korea
• Japan
• Sweden
• Germany
• Norway
• Canada
• Australia

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Non-State Actors and Nuclear Weapons

• Many groups would like to acquire nuclear weapons
• Al Qaeda
• PLO (or splinter group)
• Red Brigade
• Red Army Faction
• Islamic Jihad
• Abu Nidal
• IRA (in the past)
• Hezbollah

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The Cold War

• US - Soviet Relations
• 1945 - present

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Wary Friendship (1945-1946)

• Background of distrust
• Failure of Allies to open up a second front in
  Europe until 1944
• Lack of diplomatic recognition until 1930's
• Active military efforts against Red Army in
  1917-21 period.
• Noteworthy Events
• US atomic bomb
• Trust seemed to decline as Truman assumed power
• Soviets attempted to be accommodative on occasion
• Greek communist insurgents abandoned
• Personae
• Roosevelt
• Truman
• Stalin

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Mutual Antagonism/Belligerence (1947-1952)

• Noteworthy Events
• Soviet atomic Bomb
• Berlin Blockade
• Soviet refusal to withdraw troops from Iran
• Communist coup in Czechoslovakia
• NATO formed in 1949
• Fall of China to Mao Tse-Tung
• Korean war
• Personae
• Truman
• Eisenhower
• Stalin
• George F. Kennan, US Ambassador to Moscow
• 'long telegram', X's article in Foreign Affairs

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Rhetorical Hostility/Accommodative Action
(1953-1962)

• Noteworthy Events
• WTO formed in 1955
• Soviet invasion of Hungary (1956)
• US adopts strategy of massive retaliation (J.F.
  Dulles)
• U-2 (1959)
• Castro in Cuba (1959)
• Berlin Wall (1960)
• Bay of Pigs (1961)
• Cuban Missile Crisis (1962)
• Persona
• Eisenhower
• John Foster Dulles
• Khrushchev
• Kennedy
• Francis Gary Powers

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Peaceful Competition (1963-1968)

• Noteworthy Events
• US tacit acceptance of a divided Germany
• the 'hot line' was installed in 1973
• the Partial Test Ban Treaty (1963)
• The Outer Space Treaty (1967)
• The Nuclear Non-proliferation treaty (1968)
• Czechoslovakia (the Prague Spring)
• 'peaceful coexistence' became acceptable
• Personae
• Kennedy
• Khrushchev

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Detente' (1969-1978)

• Overall Tone The increase in Soviet military
  power would reduce their feelings of insecurity
  and let them act as responsible actors in world
  politics
• Noteworthy Events
• End of Vietnam war (1973, 1975)
• SALT I
• Vladivostok
• SALT II
• Human rights initiative Helsinki Accord
• Personae
• Richard Nixon (again!)
• Henry Kissinger
• Leonid Brezhnev
• Jimmy Carter
• Zbigniew Brzezinski

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Mutual Antagonism/Belligerence (1979-1984)

• Noteworthy Events
• Afghanistan
• Boycotts of 1980 and 84 Olympics
• Korean Flight KAL007
• Solidarity uprising in Poland
• US invasion of Grenada
• Personae
• Ronald Reagan
• Gorbachev
• (Andropov, Chernenko)

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Glasnost (1985-1991)

• The transformation and demise of the Soviet Union
• Events
• Gorbachev comes to power
• Glasnost Openness
• Perestroika Restructuring
• Fall of Czechoslovakia, Hungary
• Fall of Berlin Wall
• Soviet Coup attempt of 1991
• People
• Michai Gorbachev
• Ronald Reagan
• Boris Yeltsin

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US-SU Mirror Imaging

• People generally saw the world of US-Soviet
  relations as one of
• Ideology - Soviets seek to export communism
• US is ideologically opposed to expansion of
  communism
• Mutual antagonism - distrust
• Misperception
• We and the Soviets saw each other in mirror
  image
• they are aggressors...
• they arm for war, we arm for peace
• they intervene, we preserve and protect
• they are good people, their govt. is bad
• they cannot be trusted
• they are irrational

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Decision-Making

• Models of Decision Making
• Rational Actor
• Organizational Processes
• Bureaucratic Politics

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Other Models

• Satisficing
• Muddling through
• Problems associated with decision-making
• Selective perception
• Cognitive dissonance

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Cognition

• Humans are information processors
• We use computational algorithms to
  navigate/negotiate the world around us

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Types of sensory input

• Cognition
• information processing
• we obtain all of our knowledge of the world from
  our senses
• Primitive concepts
• Sight
• length
• Color
• 3D Depth perception
• Hearing
• Tone
• Pitch
• loudness (amplitude)
• Touch
• texture (rough-smooth)
• temperature
• Taste
• bitter
• sweet
• salt

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Types of sensory input (cont.)

• Smell
• Champhoraceus
• Musky
• Floral
• Pepperminty
• Ethereal
• Pungent
• Putrid
• Others
• balance
• weight
• Kinesthetic
• time

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• Memory
• short term
• medium term
• long term

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International Political Economy

• The North-South Arena in International Politics
• .
• .I. Background
• .
• .A. Characteristics of the Old Intern'l Economic
  Order (OIEO)
• .
• ()1. Concentration of economic power in a small
  number of
• .states.
• .2. the existance of a cluster of important
  shared interests.
• .3. a dominant power willing to lead.
• .
• .B. This didn't work.

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• The call for a New International Economic Order
  (NIEO)
• .
• .A. This policy position arose from a UN
  Conference on Trade and
• .Development (19??)
• .- conference turned into an agency
• .- Group of 77
• .
• .B. NIEO Demands
• .1. Better terms of trade
• .2. Commodity price stability
• .3. Unencumbered aid
• .- 1 of GNP later reduced to .7
• .

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• Three views of development
• .A. The Liberal view
• .- development is a problem of labor and
  capital
• .- trade acts as an "engine of growth"
• .- specialization and comparative advantage
  increases income
• .- foreign trade and investment brings
  knowledge, skills,
• .technology, and stimulates competition.
• .- foreign aid, while not a market mechanism,
  fills resource
• .gaps Substitution vs stimulation

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• The Marxist view
• .- international markets are controlled by the
  developed
• .monopolies
• .- terms of trade are structured against the
  South
• .- foreign investment hinders development by
  allowing foreign
• .elements to control the most dynamic sectors of
  the
• .economy and the profits are siphoned back to the
  North.
• .- debt service further drains the South
• .- all of this is compounded by local elites who
  have a
• .shared interest with the monopoly powers. They
  gain at
• .the expense of the masses
• .
• .Aside on Imperialism

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• The Structuralists
• .- there are poor terms of trade
• .- ineleastic demand and competitive markets
  have much of
• .the blame
• .- capital flows out of the South
• .- This can be changed!

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• Aid
• .A. US Foreign Aid
• .

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Trade
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• Resources and Politics
• .A. Food
• .1. Basic Requirements
• .- 2700 calories
• .- 56 grams protein (US average 95 grams)
• ()(7 gr cereal protein produce only 1 gr meat)
• .- many Nutrients
• .. Over 1 billion people are malnourished
• .2. Problems of Production
• .a. land
• .b. water
• .c. technology
• .d. climate
• .3. Green Revolution

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• Energy
• .1. 7-sisters dominated oil production till
  1970
• .a. St. Oil of NJ/Esso/Exxon
• .b. St. Oil of Calif. (Chevron/Standard?)
• .c. Mobil
• .d. Gulf (now deceased)
• .e. Texaco
• .f. BP
• .g. Royal Dutch Shell
• .
• .2. OPEC and the OAPEC embargo of 1974-4
• .3. OAPEC's success due to
• .a. small number of producers
• ()- but we can add UK, Norway and Mexico to the
  market
• .b. Critical nature of the material (inelastic
  demand)
• .c. control over distribution
• .d. common/shared political goals
• ()- but now we have Iran-Iraq war

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• . Nonfuel Minerals
• .D. Water
• .E. Climate
• .1. Ozone
• .2. CO2
• .
• .F. Policy
• .1. Triage
• .2. Lifeboat ethics
• .3. Carrying capacity

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Game Theory
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• Deterrence
• .
• .I. Definition
• .- "A policy of deterrence is a calculated
  attempt to induce an
• .adversary to do something or refrain from doing
  something, by
• .threatening a penalty for non-compliance.
• .

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• Selected stages in the development of modern
  deterrence 'theory'
• .1. Massive retaliation - John Foster Dulles
• .- relies on first strike capability
• .
• .2. Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)
• .- relies on second strike capability
• .
• .3. Limited (or Flexible) response
• .- presumes that some adversary actions might not
  warrant a MAD
• .response, therefore flexibility is required
• .
• .4. Nuclear Utilization theory (NUTs)
• .- given the changing technology, MAD may be
  subject to
• .'windows of vulnerability'. Thus one must deter
  the other
• .side by keeping adventurism down by threat of
  first strike.
• .(i.e. if sufficiently provoked and
  strategically capable,
• .launch a 1st strike. This keeps the other side
  more
• .cautious.)

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• Other points of note
• .1. Credible deterrent
• .- has to be believable
• .2. Methods of ensuring second strike
  capability
• .a. sheer number of weapons (build more)
• .b. dispersal (the Triad)
• .c. Hardening sites
• .d. Mobility
• .e. concealment
• .
• .3. Balance of terror
• .4. counterforce/countervalue
• .

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Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI)
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Nuclear Winter
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