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Title: Intro IR slide 1


1
Introduction to International Relations (Honors)
  • Note Card
  • Name
  • Major
  • Other PS courses ?
  • Post Grad Plans
  • Other info
  • Syllabus
  • Texts

2
News on the Web
  • Read daily news source
  • Be prepared to discuss news issues that are
    either relevant to readings or very topical.

3
Current Events Quiz
  • Who is?
  • Vice President of US
  • Secretary of State
  • Secretary of Defense
  • National Security Advisor
  • Secretary of Treasury
  • Who is leader of
  • Great Britain
  • West Germany
  • France
  • Japan
  • Russia
  • Mexico

4
Common International ACRONYMS
  • OPEC
  • NATO
  • WTO
  • SALT
  • START
  • NMD
  • WMD

5
Geography
  • Where are
  • Kampuchea
  • Belize
  • Nauru
  • Namibia
  • Qatar

6
Current Events Answers
  • Who is?
  • Vice President of US - Richard Cheney
  • Secretary of State Colin Powell
  • Secretary of Treasury John Snow
  • Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld
  • National Security Advisor Condaleza Rice
  • Who is leader of
  • Great Britain Tony Blair (Prime Minister)
  • West Germany - Gerhard Schroeder (Chancellor)
  • France - Jacques Chirac (President)
  • Japan - Junichiro Koizumi (President)
  • Russia - Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin (President)
  • Mexico - Vicente Fox Quesada (President)
  • Saudi Arabia - King Fahd bin Abdul Aziz

7
Common International ACRONYMS
  • OPEC
  • Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
  • NATO
  • North Atlantic Treaty Organization
  • WTO
  • World Trade Organization (or ??)
  • SALT
  • Strategic Arms Limitations Talks
  • START
  • Strategic Arms reduction Talks
  • NMD
  • National Missile Defense
  • WMD
  • Weapons of Mass Destruction

8
Geography
  • Where are
  • Kampuchea formerly Cambodia
  • Southeastern Asia, bordering the Gulf of
    Thailand, between Thailand, Vietnam, and Laos
  • Belize
  • Middle America, bordering the Caribbean Sea,
    between Guatemala and Mexico
  • Nauru
  • Oceania, island in the South Pacific Ocean, south
    of the Marshall Islands
  • Namibia
  • Southern Africa, bordering the South Atlantic
    Ocean, between Angola and South Africa
  • Qatar
  • Middle East, peninsula bordering the Persian Gulf
    and Saudi Arabia

9
Historical Perspective on the Study of
International Relations
  • How long have we studied IR?
  • Gilgamesh
  • http//novaonline.nv.cc.va.us/eli/eng251/gilgamesh
    study.htm
  • The Iliad
  • The Iliad (Sparknotes)
  • Thucydides -
  • The History of the Peloponnesian Wars

10
Pre - WWI
  • Traditional Diplomatic History
  • Descriptive and Prescriptive
  • Emphasis on the Uniqueness of events
  • History is made by great men/women
  • International law

11
WWI - WWII
  • Political Idealism (the optimists)
  • Men are good, only institutions are evil
  • Progress (as defined by absence of war) is
    possible
  • The Neoidealists see conflict as the result of
    anarchy
  • Appeal to justice power is in the printed word

12
Post WWII to 1960's
  • Political Realism
  • (IR takes place in a state of Nature a la
    Hobbes where
  • "Life is nasty, mean, cruel, brutish and short")
  • Hobbes Leviathan
  • Nations/men/women are motivated by a lust for
    power
  • Nations act in their own self interest.
  • Altruism doesnt exist.

13
1960's to present
  • The Behavioral/Scientific Study of Foreign Policy
  • We are interested in
  • General principles
  • Cause and Effect
  • Rigorous theory
  • Measurement

14
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15
Theory
16
Theory Hypothesis
17
Theory Hypothesis Observatio
n
18
Theory Analysis Hypothesis
Observation
19
Theory Analysis Hypothesis
Observation
20
Theory Deduction Analysis Hypoth
esis Induction Operationalization
Observation
Confirmation/ rejection
21
Two views of the modern era
  • The Great Leader
  • The Grand View

22
The Great Leader
  • Great men do Great Deeds
  • Apologies to Great Women ?
  • No...because those who accept this thesis would
    have to claim that there have been few great
    women, or else no Great Historians to write about
    them.
  • Ronald Reagan (the epitome of the Cold Warrior)
    is the savior of the free World. He confronted
    the Soviets and in the end, their system couldnt
    take the pressure. Gorbachev is a Saint/demon
    because he led the Russians to freedom/sell out
    their gains of the last half-century.

23
The Grand View
  • Events are the result of large scale demographic,
    economic and social forces in which leaders are
    simply recruited because they have the
    appropriate characteristics for that time and
    place.
  • In the late 70's early 80's a frustrated and
    impotent American electorate turned to a forceful
    leader such as Ronald Reagan to galvanize opinion
    to take a harder line against Soviet expansion
    and Iranian terrorists.
  • To this end, the rebuilt US force posture waged
    economic war upon the Soviet Union.
  • The USSR, unable to effectively compete,
    overextended and its economy began to decline.
  • This decline allowed dissidents to emerge and
    force an internal reorganization of the SU.

24
Guiding Principles for Bueno de Mesquita
  • The actions that leaders take to influence events
    are motivated by personal welfare and especially
    the desire to stay in office.
  • International relations cannot be separated from
    domestic politics.
  • Relations between nations and between leaders are
    driven by strategic considerations.

25
Major Forces of Change in the Twenty-first Century
  • There are several major influences that are
    important to consider in looking at the modern
    world
  • The Cold war and its demise
  • Personal History
  • Look at Force Posture of military vis a vis Iraq
  • Demographic Transition
  • Population growth - the result of changes in
  • Life Expectancy (death rate)
  • Birthrates (fertility rate)
  • Doubling time (rule of 72)
  • Medicine
  • SARS AIDS

26
Major Forces of Change in the Twenty-first
Century (cont.)
  • Food - scarcity and sufficiency
  • Green Revolution
  • Genetics
  • Food security assessment
  • Energy Transition
  • Fossil Fuels
  • Solar
  • Renewables
  • Nuclear Fusion ?

27
Major Forces of Change in the Twenty-first
Century (cont.)
  • The Global economy and the spread of
    industrialization
  • Relative decline in US (and Russia)
  • The growth of destructive potential and the
    accompanying paradoxical decline in the utility
    of military force.
  • The increasing reliance on terrorism and
    Asymmetric warfare
  • Social Mobility

28
Major Forces of Change in the Twenty-first
Century (cont.)
  • The expansion of democratization and/or market
    economies
  • Where has democratization emerged?
  • East Europe, Soviet Union
  • Latin America, Philippines
  • China Iran (casualties of process)
  • Are these collapses of authoritarianism or
    socialism/communism, or are these the same things
  • Have we seen the demise of communism?

29
Major Forces of Change in the Twentieth Century
(Continued)
  • Environmental Impacts
  • Acid rain
  • Ozone
  • Global warming/global climate change
  • The expansion of information technology
  • The WWW
  • Costs of information acquisition have dropped
    tremendously
  • The wireless world

30
An Introduction to the Idea of Levels of Analysis
  • Causes of WWII
  • Peace treaty of Versailles
  • Reparations too severe
  • loss of territory, pride
  • Restrictions on German Military
  • Economy
  • hyperinflation
  • Lack of leader for the world economy
  • Domestic turmoil
  • scapegoat
  • Charismatic leadership desired
  • Hitler
  • charismatic personality
  • perhaps mentally unbalanced

31
Levels of Analysis - 3 levels
  • The conventional paradigm
  • The level of analysis refers to the units being
    described in the explanation
  • Individual Level
  • We fought WWII because Hitler was a charismatic
    and perhaps mentally disturbed leader
  • Nation-State Level
  • We fought WWII because Germany sought an external
    scapegoat for its internal domestic economic
    problems.
  • International System Level
  • We fought WWII because Treaty of Versailles
    prevented Germany from re-establishing itself as
    a key player in the Concert of Europe. The
    system was not restored to balance after WWI.

32
Levels of Analysis - 6 levels
  • Individual Level
  • Personality
  • Education
  • Socialization
  • Genetics
  • Natural Attributes/Skills
  • Health
  • Reagan's age
  • Soviet succession
  • Idi Amin

33
Levels of Analysis - 6 levels (cont.)
  • Roles
  • Institutional Interests
  • Budgets
  • Turf
  • Training Perceptions
  • Alexander Haig as Sec. of State

34
Levels of Analysis - 6 levels (cont.)
  • Governmental Structure
  • Regime Type
  • (1) Democratic regimes are responsive to public
    opinion
  • (2) Authoritarian regimes may have fewer
    constraints
  • Parliamentary systems may have foreign policy
    decision making separate from domestic head of
    state (i.e.. not cabinet level decision maker)
  • Governmental Processes
  • S.O.P.'s

35
Levels of Analysis - 6 levels (cont.)
  • Nation State Level
  • Societal Characteristics
  • Religion
  • Northern Ireland, Lebanon, Sri Lanka, India, Iran
    (?)
  • War on terror ?
  • Culture
  • Heterogeneity
  • Historical development
  • Ethical/religious tradition
  • Domestic Turmoil
  • Rise of Nazis
  • Falkland Islands
  • Resources
  • Natural Resources
  • Wealth
  • Size, population, etc.
  • Expectations
  • Revolution of rising expectations

36
Levels of Analysis - 6 levels (cont.)
  • International Relations (Dyadic Relations)
  • Alliance formation
  • Trade
  • Dependence/Interdependence
  • Interaction processes
  • Arms Races
  • Escalation ladders
  • Historical ties

37
Levels of Analysis - 6 levels (cont.)
  • The International System
  • Polarity
  • Polarization
  • World Economy
  • Globalization
  • Global markets
  • Global currency regimes
  • Trade

38
Levels of Analysis - 6 levels (cont.)
  • Geopolitics
  • Climate - Huntington/Ellsworth's optimal temp
    65-70
  • Environmental challenge (Polynesia too easy, the
    tundra is too harsh)
  • Geography
  • Control of the Seas (Mahan)
  • the Heartland (McKinder)
  • Lebensraum (Germany Japan)
  • Examples
  • Persian Gulf Suez Canal
  • the Horn of Africa the Alps
  • Panama Canal Bering Strait
  • English Channel Straits of Malacca

39
Levels of Analysis - 6 levels (cont.)
  • Technology
  • Communications
  • Computers
  • Bioengineering
  • Historical development
  • Cycles
  • Sunspots ?
  • Long Cycles

40
Sovereignty and the Security Dilemma
  • Nation-States
  • Legal term
  • a nation-state possesses sovereignty over
    territory and people
  • Generally, nation states have a geographical base
  • (what about Palestinians, Gypsies, and prior to
    this century, the Jews)
  • a common language
  • (India, USSR, Switzerland)
  • other - integrated economy, religion, 'national
    character' and some institutional framework
  • (try to imagine a coup in the US)

41
Hobbesian State of Nature
  • Hobbes' Leviathan
  • Leviathan's may be masters or servants, but they
    never yield to one another except through their
    own consent.
  • they exist in a state of nature
  • "Life is nasty, mean, cruel, brutish and short
  • Became a working concept with Peace of Westphalia
    (1648)
  • the signators limited the influence of the Holy
    Roman Empire over sovereign and 'impermeable'
    states
  • The failure to agree about the extent of
    sovereignty is the stuff that wars are made of

42
The Security Dilemma
  • Nations exist in a state of nature and therefore
    their sovereignty is vulnerable to external
    attack
  • If nations were to establish a hierarchical
    authority in the international system, they would
    be surrendering the very thing they wish to
    protect - their sovereignty.
  • What about the UN?

43
Power
  • Power is a very illusive concept.
  • We know it has something to do with capabilities.
  • The Determinants of Power
  • Tangible and intangible resources
  • Geography
  • Britain, USSR, US, Switzerland
  • Natural Resources
  • Population
  • Wealth and military capability
  • National will
  • Leadership
  • Government
  • Power becomes difficult to assess
  • Vietnam, Israel, Afghanistan, Terrorism.

44
Great Powers
  • Great Powers and Superpowers
  • Intro Discussed Polarity and International
    System
  • Great Powers are nations which have played roles
    in the international system which are more
    involved than simple size or power would account
    for
  • List
  • Britain 1815 -
  • Russia, USSR 1815 -
  • France 1815 -
  • Prussia, Germany 1815 - 1945
  • Austria-Hungary 1815 - 1918
  • Italy 1870 - 1943
  • US 1900 -
  • Japan 1904 - 1945
  • China 1945 -

45
What makes a Great Power
  • Recruitment Characteristics/ "Membership"
  • Diplomatic Politics
  • Participant in the Concert of Europe
  • Membership in the Council of the League of
    Nations
  • Security Council of the United Nations
  • Power Politics
  • Military Capability
  • Nuclear Capability
  • In return for this leadership role they are
    supposed to provide a collective good - security.

46
Nuclear Weapons
  • The Nuclear Club
  • US Atomic bomb August 1945
    Thermonuclear
  • SU Atomic Thermonuclear
  • UK Atomic Thermonuclear
  • France Atomic Thermonuclear
  • China Atomic Thermonuclear
  • India
  • Pakistan
  • Possibles/Probables/Capables
  • Israel
  • South Africa
  • Iran
  • North Korea
  • Japan
  • Sweden
  • Germany
  • Norway
  • Canada
  • Australia

47
Non-State Actors and Nuclear Weapons
  • Many groups would like to acquire nuclear weapons
  • Al Qaeda
  • PLO (or splinter group)
  • Red Brigade
  • Red Army Faction
  • Islamic Jihad
  • Abu Nidal
  • IRA (in the past)
  • Hezbollah

48
The Cold War
  • US - Soviet Relations
  • 1945 - present

49
Wary Friendship (1945-1946)
  • Background of distrust
  • Failure of Allies to open up a second front in
    Europe until 1944
  • Lack of diplomatic recognition until 1930's
  • Active military efforts against Red Army in
    1917-21 period.
  • Noteworthy Events
  • US atomic bomb
  • Trust seemed to decline as Truman assumed power
  • Soviets attempted to be accommodative on occasion
  • Greek communist insurgents abandoned
  • Personae
  • Roosevelt
  • Truman
  • Stalin

50
Mutual Antagonism/Belligerence (1947-1952)
  • Noteworthy Events
  • Soviet atomic Bomb
  • Berlin Blockade
  • Soviet refusal to withdraw troops from Iran
  • Communist coup in Czechoslovakia
  • NATO formed in 1949
  • Fall of China to Mao Tse-Tung
  • Korean war
  • Personae
  • Truman
  • Eisenhower
  • Stalin
  • George F. Kennan, US Ambassador to Moscow
  • 'long telegram', X's article in Foreign Affairs

51
Rhetorical Hostility/Accommodative Action
(1953-1962)
  • Noteworthy Events
  • WTO formed in 1955
  • Soviet invasion of Hungary (1956)
  • US adopts strategy of massive retaliation (J.F.
    Dulles)
  • U-2 (1959)
  • Castro in Cuba (1959)
  • Berlin Wall (1960)
  • Bay of Pigs (1961)
  • Cuban Missile Crisis (1962)
  • Persona
  • Eisenhower
  • John Foster Dulles
  • Khrushchev
  • Kennedy
  • Francis Gary Powers

52
Peaceful Competition (1963-1968)
  • Noteworthy Events
  • US tacit acceptance of a divided Germany
  • the 'hot line' was installed in 1973
  • the Partial Test Ban Treaty (1963)
  • The Outer Space Treaty (1967)
  • The Nuclear Non-proliferation treaty (1968)
  • Czechoslovakia (the Prague Spring)
  • 'peaceful coexistence' became acceptable
  • Personae
  • Kennedy
  • Khrushchev

53
Detente' (1969-1978)
  • Overall Tone The increase in Soviet military
    power would reduce their feelings of insecurity
    and let them act as responsible actors in world
    politics
  • Noteworthy Events
  • End of Vietnam war (1973, 1975)
  • SALT I
  • Vladivostok
  • SALT II
  • Human rights initiative Helsinki Accord
  • Personae
  • Richard Nixon (again!)
  • Henry Kissinger
  • Leonid Brezhnev
  • Jimmy Carter
  • Zbigniew Brzezinski

54
Mutual Antagonism/Belligerence (1979-1984)
  • Noteworthy Events
  • Afghanistan
  • Boycotts of 1980 and 84 Olympics
  • Korean Flight KAL007
  • Solidarity uprising in Poland
  • US invasion of Grenada
  • Personae
  • Ronald Reagan
  • Gorbachev
  • (Andropov, Chernenko)

55
Glasnost (1985-1991)
  • The transformation and demise of the Soviet Union
  • Events
  • Gorbachev comes to power
  • Glasnost Openness
  • Perestroika Restructuring
  • Fall of Czechoslovakia, Hungary
  • Fall of Berlin Wall
  • Soviet Coup attempt of 1991
  • People
  • Michai Gorbachev
  • Ronald Reagan
  • Boris Yeltsin

56
US-SU Mirror Imaging
  • People generally saw the world of US-Soviet
    relations as one of
  • Ideology - Soviets seek to export communism
  • US is ideologically opposed to expansion of
    communism
  • Mutual antagonism - distrust
  • Misperception
  • We and the Soviets saw each other in mirror
    image
  • they are aggressors...
  • they arm for war, we arm for peace
  • they intervene, we preserve and protect
  • they are good people, their govt. is bad
  • they cannot be trusted
  • they are irrational

57
Decision-Making
  • Models of Decision Making
  • Rational Actor
  • Organizational Processes
  • Bureaucratic Politics

58
Other Models
  • Satisficing
  • Muddling through
  • Problems associated with decision-making
  • Selective perception
  • Cognitive dissonance

59
Cognition
  • Humans are information processors
  • We use computational algorithms to
    navigate/negotiate the world around us

60
Types of sensory input
  • Cognition
  • information processing
  • we obtain all of our knowledge of the world from
    our senses
  • Primitive concepts
  • Sight
  • length
  • Color
  • 3D Depth perception
  • Hearing
  • Tone
  • Pitch
  • loudness (amplitude)
  • Touch
  • texture (rough-smooth)
  • temperature
  • Taste
  • bitter
  • sweet
  • salt

61
Types of sensory input (cont.)
  • Smell
  • Champhoraceus
  • Musky
  • Floral
  • Pepperminty
  • Ethereal
  • Pungent
  • Putrid
  • Others
  • balance
  • weight
  • Kinesthetic
  • time

62
  • Memory
  • short term
  • medium term
  • long term

63
International Political Economy
  • The North-South Arena in International Politics
  • .
  • .I. Background
  • .
  • .A. Characteristics of the Old Intern'l Economic
    Order (OIEO)
  • .
  • ()1. Concentration of economic power in a small
    number of
  • .states.
  • .2. the existance of a cluster of important
    shared interests.
  • .3. a dominant power willing to lead.
  • .
  • .B. This didn't work.

64
  • The call for a New International Economic Order
    (NIEO)
  • .
  • .A. This policy position arose from a UN
    Conference on Trade and
  • .Development (19??)
  • .- conference turned into an agency
  • .- Group of 77
  • .
  • .B. NIEO Demands
  • .1. Better terms of trade
  • .2. Commodity price stability
  • .3. Unencumbered aid
  • .- 1 of GNP later reduced to .7
  • .

65
  • Three views of development
  • .A. The Liberal view
  • .- development is a problem of labor and
    capital
  • .- trade acts as an "engine of growth"
  • .- specialization and comparative advantage
    increases income
  • .- foreign trade and investment brings
    knowledge, skills,
  • .technology, and stimulates competition.
  • .- foreign aid, while not a market mechanism,
    fills resource
  • .gaps Substitution vs stimulation

66
  • The Marxist view
  • .- international markets are controlled by the
    developed
  • .monopolies
  • .- terms of trade are structured against the
    South
  • .- foreign investment hinders development by
    allowing foreign
  • .elements to control the most dynamic sectors of
    the
  • .economy and the profits are siphoned back to the
    North.
  • .- debt service further drains the South
  • .- all of this is compounded by local elites who
    have a
  • .shared interest with the monopoly powers. They
    gain at
  • .the expense of the masses
  • .
  • .Aside on Imperialism

67
  • The Structuralists
  • .- there are poor terms of trade
  • .- ineleastic demand and competitive markets
    have much of
  • .the blame
  • .- capital flows out of the South
  • .- This can be changed!

68
  • Aid
  • .A. US Foreign Aid
  • .

69
Trade
70
  • Resources and Politics
  • .A. Food
  • .1. Basic Requirements
  • .- 2700 calories
  • .- 56 grams protein (US average 95 grams)
  • ()(7 gr cereal protein produce only 1 gr meat)
  • .- many Nutrients
  • .. Over 1 billion people are malnourished
  • .2. Problems of Production
  • .a. land
  • .b. water
  • .c. technology
  • .d. climate
  • .3. Green Revolution

71
  • Energy
  • .1. 7-sisters dominated oil production till
    1970
  • .a. St. Oil of NJ/Esso/Exxon
  • .b. St. Oil of Calif. (Chevron/Standard?)
  • .c. Mobil
  • .d. Gulf (now deceased)
  • .e. Texaco
  • .f. BP
  • .g. Royal Dutch Shell
  • .
  • .2. OPEC and the OAPEC embargo of 1974-4
  • .3. OAPEC's success due to
  • .a. small number of producers
  • ()- but we can add UK, Norway and Mexico to the
    market
  • .b. Critical nature of the material (inelastic
    demand)
  • .c. control over distribution
  • .d. common/shared political goals
  • ()- but now we have Iran-Iraq war

72
  • . Nonfuel Minerals
  • .D. Water
  • .E. Climate
  • .1. Ozone
  • .2. CO2
  • .
  • .F. Policy
  • .1. Triage
  • .2. Lifeboat ethics
  • .3. Carrying capacity

73
Game Theory
74
  • Deterrence
  • .
  • .I. Definition
  • .- "A policy of deterrence is a calculated
    attempt to induce an
  • .adversary to do something or refrain from doing
    something, by
  • .threatening a penalty for non-compliance.
  • .

75
  • Selected stages in the development of modern
    deterrence 'theory'
  • .1. Massive retaliation - John Foster Dulles
  • .- relies on first strike capability
  • .
  • .2. Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)
  • .- relies on second strike capability
  • .
  • .3. Limited (or Flexible) response
  • .- presumes that some adversary actions might not
    warrant a MAD
  • .response, therefore flexibility is required
  • .
  • .4. Nuclear Utilization theory (NUTs)
  • .- given the changing technology, MAD may be
    subject to
  • .'windows of vulnerability'. Thus one must deter
    the other
  • .side by keeping adventurism down by threat of
    first strike.
  • .(i.e. if sufficiently provoked and
    strategically capable,
  • .launch a 1st strike. This keeps the other side
    more
  • .cautious.)

76
  • Other points of note
  • .1. Credible deterrent
  • .- has to be believable
  • .2. Methods of ensuring second strike
    capability
  • .a. sheer number of weapons (build more)
  • .b. dispersal (the Triad)
  • .c. Hardening sites
  • .d. Mobility
  • .e. concealment
  • .
  • .3. Balance of terror
  • .4. counterforce/countervalue
  • .

77
Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI)
78
Nuclear Winter
79
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