Transitions to Democracy

1
Transitions to Democracy
2
The world circa 1960
B

• 20-25 stable liberal democracies,
• some newly independent countries trying liberal
  democracy
• 80-90 countries either under or tending toward
  some form authoritarianism

3
located primarily in

• Western Europe,
• North America,
• the white commonwealth
• Australian
• New Zealand
• Canada

4
Latin America

• alternated between shaky polyarchies and military
  government, e.g.
• Argentina
• Brazil
• Peru
• Mexico
• Paraguay..

5
Communist party-state systems

• USSR
• Poland
• Czechoslovakia
• Hungary
• Bulgaria
• Romania

• Yugoslavia
• Peoples Republic of China
• North Korea
• North Viet Nam
• Albania

6
The three waves of democratization

• 1rst wave 1870-1910
• 2nd wave
• interwar period
• followed by a reverse wave
• post world war II re-democratization of
• Italy
• West Germany (Federal Republic of Germany)
• Japan
• 3rd wave -- from 1970 to present?

7
1970s

• Greece (military dictatorship, 1967-74)
• Portugal 1974
• end of Salazar-Caeteno regime (from 1931)
• Spain (1975)
• end of Franco regime (from 1939)

8
1980s

• collapse of military regimes in Latin America
• Argentina, 1982
• Brazil (opening 1977-85)
• Uruguay
• Paraguay
• Bolivia...

9
1989and beyond

• fall of Berlin Wall
• collapse of satellite Communist regimes in east
  central Europe
• break-up of the Soviet Union

• Chile
• Republic of South Africa
• South Korea
• Taiwan

10
Transitional vs. consolidated democracies

• Transitional democracies -- newly launched or
  re-democratized liberal democracies
• Consolidated democracies
• no significant challenges to regime
• the only game in town
• Some questions
• How do we know a regime is consolidated?
• How do regimes become consolidated?

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Categories, scales, classificatory schemes

• levels of measurement
• classifying democracies
• liberal democracy v. non-democracy..
• More democratic v. less democratic
• more stable v. less stable
• degrees of consolidation more consolidated v.
  less consolidated

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Levels of measurement

• nominal (discrete categories)
• ordinal (a scale positions on it are either
  more or less, higher or lower
• interval (a scale on which positions reflect
  measured differencesb

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What do we expect to find in a democracy?

• Inclusiveness
• all or almost all of the adult population
  entitled to vote
• Elections
• free and fair elections -- elections with choice
• competition

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Countries and where they fit
15
Dimensions of liberal democracy
16
Mexico before 2000

• constitution
• some restrictions on political rights
• some competition
• elections, but not entirely free and fair
  elections
• dominance of the PRI (Party of Institutional
  Revolution)

17
Nigeria

• First Republic parliamentary system, 1961-1966
• civil war blocking Biafran secession, 1966-1969
• military rule
• General Gowan, 1969-1975General
• Obasanjo, 1975/6-1979

• Second Republic presidential system from
  1979-1983
• Military governments from 1983-1993
• General Babangida
• General Abacha
• Redemocratization in 1993 under Obasanjo