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Sudan

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The population in the range 35-40 million ... KSL. KST. KUR. MLK. NHD. NYL. OBD. PSD. RAG. RNK. RSH. SNR. SHW. SHM. SHN. TKR. TOR. UMB. WAU. WHF. WMD ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Sudan


1
Sudan
And
Climate Change 2/9/2008 Geneva Ismail
Elgizouli ,Fredrich Ebert Foundation ,Sudan
sm
2
  • Introduction
  • Sudan is located in the northeastern side of
    Africa and its area is about 2.5 million square
    kilometers
  • The population in the range 35-40 million
  • The country is entirely depends on agriculture
    (rain-fed and irrigated farming).
  • A vulnerable country in the context of climate
    change witnessed cycles of drought and floods

3
Constitutions of the Republic of Sudan 2005
  • With respect to the protection of the environment
    chapter 2 article 11 of the Interim National
    Constitutions of the Republic of the Sudan
    States
  • The people of the Sudan shall have the right to
    clean and diverse environment the State and the
    citizen have the duty to preserve and promote the
    countrys Biodiversity.
  • The State shall not purse any policy, or permit
    any action which may adversely affect the
    existence of any species of animal or vegetative
    life, their natural or adopted habitat.
  • The State shall promote, through legislation,
    sustainable utilization of natural resources and
    best practices with respect to their management

4
  • Climate of Sudan
  • The climate zones as shown in fig.
  • vary from desert type in the north to semi
    desert in in north central parts of the country
  • In the central parts semi-arid through arid to
    dry sub-humid
  • Humid in the south

5
SUDAN CLIMATE ZONES FOR THE PERIOD 1971-2000
6
Climate change impacts can now be estimated more
systematically and for a greater range of sectors
and regions
7
Dust-storm
8
Floods and droughts
9
  • Climate Change in Sudan
  • Vulnerability Adaptation Rationale in Sudan
  • There is an ample evidence that climate has
    reported a clear change in the climate during the
    last three decades of the twentieth century.
  • Sudan is particularly concerned with impacts of
    climate change

10
  • The majority of its land is quite sensitive to
    changes in temperature and precipitation
  • Fragile ecosystem
  • Weak infrastructure and economy
  • Food security is mainly determined by rainfall
  • More than 70 of Sudan population is directly
    dependent on climate-sensitive resources for
    their livelihood.

11
  • Sectors Affected by Global Warming
  • Water Sector (resources and suppliers)
  • Agriculture and Natural Resources
  • Biodiversity
  • Health Sector (vector and epidemic diseases)
  • Industrial Economy
  • Political Geography (conflicts due to limitation
    in natural resources)
  • Affects the future of the new generation.

12
  • Impacts of Global Warming on Water Resources
    Sector
  • Rising in temperature will increase the rate of
    evaporation which is loss of water for
    utilization.
  • Global warming will lead to climate change and
    hence accelerates the frequency of occurrence of
    the extreme climate events (drought/floods)
    tropical cyclones- dust-storms that cause the
    natural disasters.
  • Decline in hydroelectric power

13
  • Climate change projections in milestone year
    2030 in Sudan (Kordofan Region)
  • From the report of the first national
    communication of Sudan in climate change issue
    some results had been achieved in Greater
    Kordofan State as follows
  • The projected temperature in 2030 varies between
    0.5 to 1C while globally it is 0.6 C. The area
    chosen considered as one of the most vulnerable
    areas and located in the heart of Sudan

14
  • Water resources
  • Reduced groundwater recharge either through
    decreased precipitation or increased temperature
    and evaporation has grave repercussions for
    Sudan.
  • National studies have shown that soil moisture
    would decline under future climate change.
  • When coupled with increased water consumption,
    population growth, high variation in rainfall and
    the high rate of evaporation, a looming water
    crisis appears likely

15
  • Agriculture
  • Combined with growing socioeconomic pressures,
    the imposition of climate variability and climate
    change is likely to intensify the ongoing process
    of desertification of arable areas.
  • Humid agro climatic zones will shift southward,
    rendering areas of the North increasingly
    unsuitable for agriculture. Crop production is
    predicted to decline substantially for both
    millet and sorghum (see figure below ).
  • The area of arable land as well as the important
    Gum Arabic belt would likely also decrease, with
    attendant impacts on both local incomes and food
    security would drop

16
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17
  • Although, some parts in the region reflected a
    rise in precipitation, but the average annual
    rate of evapo-transpiration, shows a jump from
    2773 to 3110 mms which is almost close to 12.
    Due to rise in temp.(1-3 C)
  • The population is projected to increase and this
    will be accompanied by increase in water
    consumption.
  • The yield in the main cereals is expected to
    decline between 13 to 82 for sorghum and 20 to
    76 for millet from south to north of the region
  • The humid zones will shift southwards.
  • To conclude that, this assessment study
    generally reflects the situation in Sudan in the
    context of climate change. There is a question
    arises what will happen to the climate zones?

18
  • Public health
  • Communities in Sudan would be exposed to
    significantly increased risk of malaria under
    climate change.
  • Studies in Kordofan State, for example, have
    shown that the risk of transmission potential
    could increase substantially by 2060 (see figure
    below ).
  • If realized, not only would the overburdened
    health care system experience extreme stress but
    the disease would exact a heavy toll on local
    communities

19
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20
Socioeconomic impacts
  • Climate change leads to drought which implies to
  • Limitation in natural resources… ..conflicts
  • Food security collapse……famine… displaced
    people refugees… .misuse of natural
    resources
  • Floods… .imply to migration of people from
    rural and remote areas to the cities which causes
    stress on service infrastructure …spoil
    stability and security conditions
  • ?Spreading of epidemic and vector diseases …
    production declines consequently affects the
    GDP.

21
Climate Change Socioeconomic Impacts

22
Drought
23
Conflicts in Darfur
24
Conflicts
25
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26
Dar Fur and C.C
  • In recent years, increasing drought cycles and
    the Sahara's southward expansion have created
    conflicts between nomadic and sedentary groups
    over shortages of water and land.

27
Dar Fur and C.C
  • The combination of decades of drought,
    desertification, and overpopulation are among the
    causes of the Darfur conflict, because the
    nomads searching for water have to take their
    livestock further south, to land mainly occupied
    by farming communities

28
What did they say about Dar Fur and C. C
  • ?"The blunt truth is that the lack of water and
    agricultural land is a significant contributory
    factor to the tragic conflict we see unfolding in
    Dar Fur. We should see this as a warning sign."
  • The British Home Secretary Jhon Reid ,March 2006

29
  • Chalking the Dar Fur conflict up to climate
    change alone would be an oversimplification
  • Eric Reeves ,Smith College

30
  • Michael Klare, a global security specialist at
    Hampshire College and author of the book Resource
    Warsargue that Darfur is part of an emerging
    pattern of resource conflict "I don't think you
    can separate climate change from population
    growth, rising consumption patterns and
    globalization... It's really one phenomenon

31
  • April 18, 2008 (PARIS) French President Nicolas
    Sarkozy told the worlds biggest carbon polluters
    Friday that global warming was becoming a driver
    of hunger, unrest and conflict, with the war in
    Dar Fur a concrete example

32
  • "In Darfur, we see this explosive mixture from
    the impact of climate change, which prompts
    emigration by increasingly impoverished people,
    which then has consequences in war," French
    President Sarkozy

33
END THANK YOU
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