Title: Preliminary Review of the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Caribbean Tourism
1Preliminary Review of the economic impact of
climate change on Caribbean Tourism what is at
risk and adapting for sustainable tourism
development
Marlene Attzs Senior Technical Officer and
PhD Candidate Sustainable Economic Development
Unit (SEDU) Department of Economics, University
of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad OAS
Meeting on Adaptation to Climate Change in the
Caribbean Tourism Sector Workshop, Grenada, May
27-28, 2002.
2Content of Presentation
- 1. Science of Climate Change
- 2. Anticipated impacts of climate change on SIDS
- 3. Vulnerability and Adaptation
- 4. Definitional Review of Sustainable Tourism
Development - Application to the Caribbean
- o 6. Need for economic policy instruments to
address risk and to - promote adaptation to CC particularly for
the tourism sector
3Science of Climate Change
Climate Change may be summarised as a situation
where the atmospheres carrying capacity for
assimilating/absorbing GHGs has been
breached/surpassed. The 1995 IPCC report
concluded that there has been a discernible
human influence on global climate. The
primary sources of these anthropogenic or
human-induced factors have been increased
burning of fossil fuels and the use of aerosols.
4Sustainable Tourism Development
Challenges to the Sustainable Development of the
Caribbean Tourism Industry
1. to maintain the industry within the regions
ecological and socio-cultural carrying
capacity. 2. to anticipate and adapt to
climate change inclusive of an increased
frequency and intensity of natural disasters,
mean sea level rise and increased temperature.
5Anticipated Impacts of Climate Change on SIDS
Surface Temperatures sea-surface temperature to
increase by about 1?C over the next 100
years Rainfall to increase by 20-30 over
tropical oceans Extreme Events (including
hurricanes and cyclones) to increase by about
40 . Latest projections by Gray (2002) suggest
that the 2002 hurricane season will be active
and above average with 12 named storms 7
hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. (the average
per year is 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and
2.3 major hurricanes).
6Anticipated Impacts of Climate Change on SIDS
Sea Level Rise could increase by an average of
5mm per annum resulting in, inter alia, direct
loss of economic, ecological, cultural and
subsistence values through loss of land,
infrastructure and coastal habitats Increased
flood risk of people, land and infrastructure
and Other impacts related to changes in water
management, salinity and biological activity.
7Vulnerability and Adaptation
Vulnerability to Climate Change is the amount of
damage a region/sector could experience in light
of climate change. The literature suggests that
the extent to which human communities are able
to adapt to CC would depend on (a) the number and
nature of changes which result from CC (b) the
rate at which (frequency) of these changes occur
and (c) the cost of these changes. Tol,
Fankhauser and Smith (1998) report that an
ecosystems vulnerability to CC is a function of
(a) the sensitivity of the system to CC and (b)
the ability of the system to adapt to CC.
8The vulnerability of SIDS relates to their very
geographical location. In the case of Caribbean
SIDS, these are located in the "hurricane belt"
The frequency and intensity of hurricanes, have
increased in recent years. The small
populations and generally mono-crop economies of
most Caribbean States means that whenever a
disaster strikes it affects a large proportion
of the economy and people, and development of
the countries could be set back by several years.
9Hurricane Luis, Antigua and Barbuda in 1995 -
damage estimated in excess of EC810 Mn (approx
US 270Mn ) million in damages and resulted in
the closing of all hotels. This amounted to 71
per cent of the island's GDP with an estimated
83 of GDPfrom tourism. Anguilla also
suffered damages, which were estimated to be 147
per cent of its GDP.
10What is at risk in the Caribbean
The wider Caribbean region with its many island
based economies such as fishing and/or tourism,
is particularly vulnerable to the physical
changes associated with climate change and sea
level rise (UNEP 1993, 10) Jackson (1984)
noted that the majority of tourist facilities in
the Caribbean are in close proximity to the sea
within 800 metres of the high water mark.
11What is at risk in the Caribbean
Tourism Assets Antigua Barbuda Hurricanes
Luis and Marilyn (1995) devastated coastal
areas, causing severe damage to hotel and other
tourism properties and leading to significant
reductions in tourism arrivals and adversely
affecting employment and foreign exchange.
Similar experiences in 1998 and 1999 with the
passage of Hurricanes Jose, Georges and Lenny.
12What is at risk in the Caribbean
Barbados 70 of the islands hotels located
within 250 metres of the high water mark which
suggests a lot of hotels almost exclusively
within the 1 in 500 and 1 in 100 inundation
zones, placing them at risk of major structural
damage
Dominica Hurricane Lenny (1999) caused
approximately US250,000.00 damages to tourism
infrastructure mainly along the west coast.
13What is at risk in the Caribbean
St Lucia Hurricane Lenny (1999) had significant
impacts, primarily in the coastal environment,
even though the storm remained hundreds of miles
away from St Lucia
St. Vincent and the Grenadines no direct impact
from triple storm systems of 1995 (Iris, Luis,
and Marilyn) but coastal areas received
considerable damage from storm surge associated
with these systems.
14What is at risk in the Caribbean
Other assets Private Property Public
Infrastructure (roads, bridges, hospitals,
public utilities etc.)
15Adaptation to Climate Change impacts
O1. Anticipatory vs Reactionary Adaptation O2.
Do Nothing, Managed Retreat, Aggressive
Defence Adaptation to hurricanes, perhaps the
most effective adaptation strategies would be
either retrofitting of homes/businesses against
hurricane force winds as a precautionary measure
or ensuring that in the design, planning and
construction phases there is strict adherence to
building codes which have been designed to
protect structures against the impacts of
hurricanes including, high speed winds,
flash-flooding etc.
16Economic Policy Instruments to facilitate
Adaptation
1. Tax-based incentives (eg. Soft loans) 2.
Public Education
3. Command and Control (legislation and
policies) 5. National/Regional adaptation
strategies (investing in hard/soft
engineering, research into the climate change to
better understand the national/regional
implications of climate change)