A Delphi study of future nanotechnology markets in Russia

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A Delphi study of future nanotechnology markets
in Russia

Higher School of Economics Institute for
Statistical Studies and Economics of
Knowledge Foresight Centre
Alexander Sokolov sokolov_at_hse.ru
The Second Nanotechnology International Forum
Moscow, 7 October 2009
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Contents

• Foresight for nanoindustry
• Delphi methodology and organisation
• Provisional applications

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Contents

• Foresight for nanoindustry
• Delphi methodology and organisation
• Provisional applications

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Major goals

• Identification of most promising nanoindustry
  markets for the mid and long-term period (up to
  2030)
• Development of a list of nano-enabled product
  groups with the greatest innovation capacities

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Focus

• Identification of most important innovation
  products with consumer qualities and competitive
  advantages based on using nanotechnology related
  components

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Key issues addressed

• Prospects for nanoindustry development in Russia
  and worldwide (markets by sector and product
  group, breakthrough technologies)
• Priority areas of nanotechnology utilisation
• Opportunity windows for Russia, risks and
  limitations
• Potential (e.g. alternative) trajectories to
  achieve the set goals
• Dynamics of nanoindustry development compared to
  other sectors of economy and foreign countries
  (benchmarking)
• Efficiency of decision-making

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Foresight for nanoindustry general framework
Medicine Aircraft industry Space industry Nuclear
energy Energy saving Clean water for households
Challenges/problems
Market demand
Pilot roadmaps
Social and economic goals
Nanocarbon fiber Catalysts for petrochemistry LEDs
and OLEDs
DELPHI
DELPHI based roadmaps
Future demand for skilled workforce
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Foresight for nanoindustry action plan
FORESIGHT FOR NANOINDUSTRY MARKETS - DELPHI
Analysis of Russian and Foreign Foresight studies
Work of expert panels
Delphi 1 round
Delphi 2 round
Data processing
Priorities for nanoindustry
Creation of expert panels
Passports for the key products
Delphi questionnaires
Preliminary surveys topics formulation
Expert panels
Innovation projects
Expert panels future demand for skilled
workforce
Foresight for skilled workforce
Key future skills and education curricula
ROADMAPS
Methodology
Expert panels
Delphi based Roadmaps
Analysis of diseases
Analysis of future demand
Data base of organisations
Pilot roadmaps
Analytical reports for sectors
Selection of experts
Development of pilot roadmaps
2008
2009
2010
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Contents

• Foresight for nanoindustry
• Delphi methodology and organisation
• Provisional applications

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Delphi key issues

• The most important product groups
• Novelty of RTD, benchmark vis-à-vis world leaders
• Time of realisation
• Alternative technological solutions
• The most efficient policy support measures

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Delphi for nanoindustry major activities
Analysis of Russian and foreign Foresight studies
Selection of experts
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Foresight of nanoindustry product and technology
markets major stages

• Preliminary analysis (benchmarking,
  bibliometrics, patents, statistics)
• Identification of major socio-economic goals
• Creation of expert pool
• Structuring thematic fields
• Formulation of Delphi topics
• Delphi methodology (questionnaire, survey
  organisation, data processing)
• Expert panels
• Data analysis
• Preparation, discussion and dissemination of
  results

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Analysis of Russian and foreign nanotechnology
related sources
Russian ST Delphi 2025 Russian Critical
technologies Global Technology Revolution 2020
(RAND) European Strategy for Nanotechnology
Roadmaps Nanotechnology Foresight in
Asia-Pacific Nanotechnology, Water
Development Nanotechnology Initiative
USA Roadmap for productive nanosystems (Foresight
Institute, USA) Nanotechnology skills and
education (UK) Energy and nanotechnology a
strategy for Australias future Roadmap for RD
in nanotechnology (New Zealand) Roadmap for
metrology (UK) and many more

• National ST Foresight studies (Russia, Japan,
  Germany, UK et al)
• Foresight studies for nanotechnology
• Bibliometric data (emerging nano-related areas)
• Patent databases
• Mid- and long-term RTD programmes - FP7 et al)

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Analysis of public policy goals

• Basic documents
• Program documents of the President and Government
• Sectoral concepts and strategies
• Reports on the results and main trends of
  activity of budget planning subjects
• Federal goal-oriented programs

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Drivers of demand for nanoproducts

• Review of market studies

• Analysis of disease and death statistics in
  Russia

• Representative population survey Readiness of
  population to purchase innovation products"

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Internal Demand for Nano-enabled Products
Would you buy a nano-enabled product

• Filter for drinking water purification 52
• Paste for fast healing of wounds and burns 42
• (if not expensive)

Would you buy clothes, underwear, which are

• dirt-proof 52
• mosquitoes and mite-proof 48
• (if not expensive)

• mosquitoes and mite-proof 8
• (even if expensive)

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Selection of experts
Companies Leading RD centres and universities
RD Individual researchers with high citation
indices Professional societies Expert groups at
Govt agencies Participants in Rusnano
projects Experts engaged in pilot
roadmaps Russian diasporas abroad Co-nomination
procedures
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21 application areas (market segments)

• Motor vehicles
• Water transport
• Railway transport
• Construction
• Textile and leather
• Sports goods
• Wood-processing
• Agriculture
• Foods and beverages
• Consumer chemicals and perfumes
• Communal services

• Electricity
• Lighting
• Electronics and communications
• IT and office equipment
• Consumer electronics
• Aerospace
• Medical equipment and materials
• Pharmaceuticals
• Oil and gas processing, petrochemistry
• Machinery

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Application areas vs ST fields

• Electricity

Thermo proof composite coatings strengthened by
nanoscale cilicides increasing exploitation
temperature 1.5 times

• Composite materials

• Oil and gas processing, petrochemistry

Nanostructured polymer and hybrid composites for
gas-separating membranes with high selectivity

• Membranes and filters

• Sensors and transducers

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Delphi 13 ST fields

• Films and layers
• Membranes and filters
• Electronics and hardware
• Sensors and transducers
• Machinery
• Biotechnology

• Catalysts
• Polymer materials
• Composites
• Ceramic materials
• Metals and alloys
• Crystal structures
• Fluid media

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Questionnaire key issues
Leading countries Time of technological solution
in the leading countries Russias positions
vis-à-vis the leaders Time of product
realisation in the leading countries Russias
positions vis-à-vis the leaders Future prospect
of the product at the market Most appropriate
support measures
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Survey already started
Experts are kindly welcome aboard http//foresi
ght.hse.ru/delphi/
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Contents

• Foresight for nanoindustry
• Delphi methodology and organisation
• Provisional applications

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Roadmapping
Industrial sectors MachinerySocial
applications MedicineCross-cutting
areas Energy savingProduct groups Catalysts
for oil-processingSpecial application
areas Clean water for households
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Policy and decision making
1. Priorities for selection and funding of
projects by Rusnano 2. Information for potential
co-investors3. Promotion of new project
proposals 4. Proactive search for promising
nanotechnology projects5. Informing Russian ST
and business societies on promising areas of
nanoindustry development
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Thank you for your attention!

• sokolov_at_hse.ru
• http//foresight.hse.ru/delphi/

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