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PowerPoint Presentation Global Change Curricula and Programs at Iowa State University

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Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC. CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA ... Climate change and the scientific process. Moving beyond the science ... President Brighton ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: PowerPoint Presentation Global Change Curricula and Programs at Iowa State University


1
Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC
2
Global Climate Change How We Got Here, and
What Do We Do Now?
  • Eugene S. Takle
  • Professor of Atmospheric Science
  • Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
  • Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
  • Department of Agronomy
  • Interim Faculty Director
  • University Honors Program
  • Director
  • Climate Science Initiative
  • Iowa State University
  • Ames, Iowa 50011
  • gstakle_at_iastate.edu

Golden K Kiwanis Club Ames, IA 17 April 2008
3
Outline
  • Scientific basis for climate change
  • Climate change and the scientific process
  • Moving beyond the science to take action
  • What do we do now?
  • Mitigation
  • Adaptation
  • Summary

4
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5
Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years
Natural cycles
6
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7
IPCC Third Assessment Report
8
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Business as Usual 950 ppm (2100)
9
http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006
/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
10
Source IPCC, 2001 Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
11
Source IPCC, 2001 Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
12
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13
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14
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15
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16
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17
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18
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
19
El Chichon (1982)
Agung, 1963
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
At present trends the imbalance 1 Watt/m2 in
2018
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
20
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22
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
23
http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006
/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
24
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
25
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
26
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Not Natural
27
Source Jerry Meehl, National Center for
Atmospheric Research
28
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
29
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is committed to a warming over the
next 50 years regardless of political decisions
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
30
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is committed to a warming over the
next 50 years regardless of political decisions
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
31
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is committed to a warming over the
next 50 years regardless of political decisions
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
32
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
Mitigation Possible
Adaptation Necessary
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
33
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
34
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
35
Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest
(My tentative assessment)
  • Longer frost-free period (high)
  • Higher average winter temperatures (high)
  • Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
  • More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium)
  • Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and
    winter (high)
  • More (10) precipitation (medium)
  • More variability of summer precipitation (high)
  • More intense rain events and hence more runoff
    (high)
  • Higher episodic streamflow (medium)
  • Longer periods without rain (medium)
  • Higher absolute humidity (high)
  • Stronger storm systems (medium)
  • Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium)

Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by
models No current trend but
model suggestion or current trend but models
inconclusive
36
What To Do Now
37
What To Do Now
  • Mitigation
  • Become active politically
  • National level - examine candidate platforms
  • Demand that state and local organizations examine
    carbon emissions
  • Examine personal choices
  • Home energy use
  • Auto type and use
  • Purchase of stuff

38
What To Do Now
  • Mitigation
  • Become active politically
  • National level - examine candidate platforms
  • Demand that state and local organizations examine
    carbon emissions
  • Examine personal choices
  • Home energy use
  • Auto type and use
  • Purchase of stuff
  • Adaptation
  • Stay informed of the best science
    on climate change for the Midwest
  • Encourage public and private
    investment in sustainable and
    resilient practices and infrastructure

39
What To Do NowWhat are your public universities
doing?
  • North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
    Program
  • ISU Climate Science Initiative/Institute
  • Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)

40
What To Do NowWhat are your public universities
doing?
  • North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
    Program
  • ISU Climate Science Initiative
  • Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)

41
North America Regional Climate Change Assessment
Program Participants
  • Lead agency NSF, with contributions from NOAA
    and DOE
  • R. Arritt, D. Flory, W. Gutowski, E. Takle, Iowa
    State University, USA
  • R. Jones, E. Buonomo, W. Moufouma-Okia, Hadley
    Centre, UK
  • D. Caya, S. Biner, OURANOS, Canada
  • D. Bader, P. Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National
    Laboratories, USA
  • F. Giorgi, ICTP, Italy
  • I. Held, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
    Laboratory, USA
  • R. Leung, Y. Qian, Pacific Northwest National
    Laboratories, USA
  • L. Mearns, D. Middleton, D. Nychka, S. McInnes,
    NCAR, USA
  • A. Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of
    Oceanography, USA
  • S. Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA
  • L. Sloan, M. Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa
    Cruz, USA

42
What To Do NowWhat are your public universities
doing?
  • North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
    Program
  • ISU Climate Science Initiative
  • Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
    (proposed to NOAA)

43
ISU Climate Science Initiative
  • Launched by Vice President Brighton
  • Colleges of Agric, Engr, LAS have taken
    leadership, but broad campus research
    participation will be emphasized
  • Build on research strengths in regional climate
    modeling, agriculture, water,
    landscapes, engineering

44
How Will New Trends and Variability of Regional
Climate Change Affect
  • Crop horticulture production
  • Soil erosion
  • Conservation practices
  • Water supplies
  • Streamflow
  • Water quality
  • Beef and pork daily gains
  • Livestock breeding success
  • Milk and egg production
  • Crop and livestock pests and pathogens
  • Agricultural tile drainage systems
  • Natural ecosystem species distributions
  • Human health
  • Building designs
  • Recreation opportunities
  • River navigation
  • Roads and bridges

Who will provide authoritative information? How
will it be delivered?
45
What To Do NowWhat are your public universities
doing?
  • North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
    Program
  • ISU Climate Science Initiative
  • Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)

46
Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
47
Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
  • Create seasonal climate forecasts for the Midwest
  • Use ensembles of advanced regional climate models
    interactive web-based decision-making tools,
  • Translate and enhance the latest NOAA climate
    forecast products to maximize economic gains
  • Use high-volume customized delivery and feedback
    through the county level extension service network

48
Summary
  • Climate change of the past 35 years is not
    consistent with natural variations over the last
    400,000 years
  • Evidence clearly shows that radiative forcing due
    to anthropogenic greenhouse gases has contributed
    over half of the warming of the last 35 years
  • Mitigation efforts, although urgently needed,
    will have little effect on global warming until
    the latter half of the
    21st century
  • Adaptation strategies should be
    developed for the next 50 years
  • Iowa State University will build on its
    strengths and provide authoritative
    information on climate change and
    climate variability for
    decision-makers
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