JSTO Sensor Data Fusion Program Goals Workshop on Chemical Data Assimilation John Pace DTRA/CBT 21 June 2005

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JSTO Sensor Data Fusion Program GoalsWorkshop
on Chemical Data AssimilationJohn
PaceDTRA/CBT21 June 2005
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JSTO Environmental Hazard Prediction Program
Overview

• Background Joint Science and Technology Office
  is part of the Chem-Bio Defense Program (CBDP)
• Manage projects to develop ST capabilities
  needed for operational CB modeling systems
• Environmental Hazard Prediction program has many
  elements, including SDF program
• Improved dispersion models, urban dispersion
  models, coastal littoral models, several others

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JSTO Sensor Data Fusion Program Overview

• Original concept for JSTO program derived from
  weather data assimilation analogy
• Combine first guess from model, valid at time t,
  with data from Chem and Bio sensors valid at
  approximately the same time
• Resulting analysis should be more accurate than
  original model prediction or sensor data
• Several key differences between CB data and
  weather data assimilation methodologies
• Differences on constraints on solutions
• No need to use combined solution as first guess
  for next calculation
• Instead, need to work backward to estimate source
  location and time

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JSTO Sensor Data Fusion Program

• Overall JSTO program direction from DTRA/CBT
• Program Manager, Principle Investigator from
  other organizations
• JSTO program coordinated with multi-national TP9
  program
• Coordinates several related US, UK, Canadian,
  Australian projects
• Principle objectives
• Blend CB sensor data with dispersion model
• More accurate depiction of CB hazard area
• Ability to backtrack to source location
• Provide guidance about sensor performance
• Support tool to place sensors for facility
  protection
• Status
• SDF Program established, Program Plan under
  development
• Good progress on several projects
• Several good leads for additional performers to
  add to program
• Butalways looking for good new ideas and
  approaches

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What Sensor Data Fusion Program is NOT

• Considerable effort underway simply to acquire
  and display data from CB sensors in common
  format, on command and control display systems
• Goal is to identify hazard areas, compare to
  model output
• Provides some limited capability if sensors are
  always accurate, if the sensor characteristics
  are understood by the user, if nearby sensor
  readings agree, and there arent more sensors
  data than the user can understand
• These assumptions are not usually true
• Beyond these limits, much more is achievable than
  this basic display capability can provide

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"Model" Results
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Sensor Data
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Reality (?) based on sensor data
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Data fusion?
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Claude Monet The
Seine at Giverny, 1897
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Jackson Pollock Number 1, 1950
(Lavender Mist), 1950
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Prototype Backtracking Capability

• UK developed STEM-II
• Updates source-term estimates in real-time
• Robust Bayesian approach
• Handles real-time chemical sensor data and
  observer data
• Demonstration version available
• Further development required, including
• Multiple sources
• Continuous and line releases
• Biological releases

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Question

• Can our program benefit from idea exchange with
  air quality chemical data assimilation work?