Technology Foresight

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Technology Foresight
Week 3
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Fuel cell technology an overview
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Fuel cell technology an overview
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Fuel cell technology an overview
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Fuel cell technology an overview
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Fuel cell technology an overview
Transport
Stationary power and heat generation
Electrical and electronics
Military application
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Fuel cell technology an overview
Cumulative fuel cell units installed worldwide
(1991-2006)
(Source Fuel Cell Today, 2007)
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Fuel cell technology an overview
Worldwide publications related to fuel cell by
year of publication (1955-2005)
(Please do not cite, unpublished work)
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What will we cover today?

• What are the specific functions of technology
  foresight?
• Who are involved in a technology foresight
  exercise?
• What different levels of technology foresight
  that has been conducted?
• What is the time horizon of technology foresight?
  
• What kind of methodological approaches that are
  used in technology foresight?

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What are the specific functions of technology
foresight?
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Technology Foresight?
The process in systematically attempting to look
into the longer term future of science,
technology, the economy and society with the aim
of identifying the areas of strategic research
and emerging generic technologies likely to yield
the greatest economic and social benefits
(Martin, 1993)
Reference



Martin, B
(1993)


Technology
Foreisght 6 A Review of Recent overseas
Programmes. Office of Science and Technology,
United Kingdom
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The functions of technology foresight
Martin and Irvine, 1989
1. Direction-setting This relates to the use of
foresight in determining broad guidelines for
science policy and establishing an agreed agenda
to explore further the prospects for a more
limited range of future RD options. These agenda
and guidelines be divided into (i) Substantive
use (basic outlines of a position) (ii)
Elaborative use (to clarify and extend positions)

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The objectives of technology foresight

• Martin and Irvine, 1989

2. Determining priorities This encompasses a
variety of activities seeking to identify and
select promising options for future research from
among a broader range of possibilities. These
areas of prioritization can be seen in several
ways e.g. allocation of research funds
assessing the needs for scientific
instrumentation evaluating future requirements
for trained researchers.
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The objectives of technology foresight

• Martin and Irvine, 1989

3. Anticipatory intelligence Provide background
information on emerging trends in science and
technology, in particular concerning developments
with major implications for future policy making.
It may therefore form an integral part of the
infrastructure needed to undertake direction
setting and priority determining exercises. Some
of the activities includes providing prompt
indication of research potential activities, give
early warning of impending threats or
difficulties, exploring unlikely but highly
significant or disruptive development (wild card
scenarios), trends in basic science policy
research.
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The objectives of technology foresight

• Martin and Irvine, 1989

4. Consensus generation Promote greater
consensus among scientists, funding agencies and
research users on identified RD needs or
opportunities. The consensus, for instance, can
be seen in various ways (i) Internal
consensus (within the research community) (ii)
External consensus (with those financing,
executing and using the research)
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The objectives of technology foresight

• Martin and Irvine, 1989

5. Communication and Education To
disseminate information and knowledge about this
technology. This can be done in three ways (i)
Promoting internal communication within the
research community (ii) External communication
with industrial and other potential users of
research (ii) Wider education of the general
public, politicians, government officials and
others with less direct involvement in the
technology
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The objectives of technology foresight

• Martin and Irvine, 1989

6. Advocacy Foresight can also be used to
promote policy decisions in line with the
preference of specific stakeholders in the RD
system. This can take several forms (i)
Advocacy by senior scientists and or policy
makers to explicitly oriented towards mobilising
the research community (ii) Advocacy by
researchers which aims to influence decision
makers, in particular by setting out the case for
increased funding in terms of what if and what
if not scenario (iii) Advocacy by science
policy officials directed at government, the
ministry of finance or perhaps the general
public, where the intention is to defend or
legitimate an agencys research budget.
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Who are involved in technology foresight?
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Organizational characteristics
Martin and Irvine, 1989

• High level government advisory body or central
  agencies involved in the coordination and
  planning of national science and technology
  policy
• Independent public sector advisory councils with
  broad remit to identify future needs and
  opportunities for research, as well as potential
  problems with existing policy
• Academic funding bodies like research councils
  whose primary task is to support basic science in
  higher educations institutions
• National academies of science and other
  professional organisations of the research
  community

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Technology foresight Organizational
characteristics (cont.)
Martin and Irvine, 1989

• 5. Government departments and mission oriented
  agencies financing and/ or executing work in
  strategic research and basic technology
• 6. Industrial associations bringing together
  groups of companies (often from the same
  technology sector) to discuss matters of common
  interest or to collaborate in longer-term generic
  research
• 7. Science based firms high-technology fields,
  many have been increasing their investment in
  strategic research

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Actors involved in the technology foresight for
fuel cell technology
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In Malaysia in the early1990s


UKM
UTM
(Please do not cite, unpublished work)
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by March 2007
(Please do not cite, unpublished work)
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In Singapore in the late1990s
NUS
NTU
(Please do not cite, unpublished work)
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by March 2007
(Please do not cite, unpublished work)
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Levels of technology foresight
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Levels of technology foresight
Martin and Irvine, 1989

• Four levels of specificity can be
  distinguished in a technology foresight
  exercise
• Holistic related to the entire spectrum of
  different fields. Foresight at this level
  generally aims to gain an overview of possible
  future directions for a national research effort,
  and is typically used to coordinate or set the
  scene for lower level foresight exercises.
• Macro level relates to foresight focusing on a
  limited number of research fields. Most funding
  agencies support a variety of disciplines and are
  therefore faced with having to decide on overall
  priorities.

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Levels of foresight
Martin and Irvine, 1989
3. Meso level Foresight concerned with a single
scientific field or technology sector. It is
typically used to determine which research areas
have the greatest socio-economic potential or
intellectual promise prior to selecting the main
lines of work for the planned programme. 4.
Micro level Assessment of future prospects at
either the level of firms, projects or individual
scientific specialties. Systematic foresight of
this type is less common in the case of basic
science, but become increasingly widespread as
one moves along the spectrum towards applied
research (e.g. prospective analysis to set
technical goals for projects or to predict the
likely impact of RD).
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LEVELS OF FORESIGHT
Holistic (energy technology)
Macro (low carbon energy technology)
Meso (fuel cell technology)
Micro (developing high performing membranes)
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Methodological approach
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Methodological approach
UNIDO, 2005
Environmental Scanning
Issue Surveys
SWOT analysis
Simulation modeling
Trend extrapolation
Critical (and key) technologies
Road-mapping
Genius forecasting
Delphi
Scenarios
Brainstorming
Expert panels
Cross-Impact analysis
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Methodological approach
Martin and Irvine, 1989

• Informal methods
• Formal methods

• Qualitative methods
• Quantitative methods

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Methodological approach
Martin and Irvine, 1989

• Informal methods
• Formal methods

• Qualitative methods
• Quantitative methods

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Methodological approach
UNIDO, 2005

• Exploratory methods
• Normative methods

• Quantitative methods
• Qualitative methods

• Expert based
• Assumption based

• Identifying issues
• Extrapolative approaches
• Creative approaches
• Prioritisation

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Summary on the basics of
technology foresight
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Summary

• Definition from forecasting to foresight
• Brief history of technology foresight
• Important aspects of technology foresights
• The objectives of technology foresight
• The organisational characteristics of technology
  foresight
• Levels of technology foresight
• Introduction to methodological approach

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Next tutorial
You will spend the tutorial hour reading a
paper by Godet entitled Forecasting" to "La
Prospective A New Way of Looking at the Future
and in groups, prepare answers on some key
questions that will be posed at the beginning pf
the class. Your answers will be presented and
discussed in the next tutorial.
Next lecture
Methods for technology foresight