Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World by Bubu Pateh Jallow, Vice Chair of the

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Fighting Climate ChangeHuman Solidarity in a
Divided Worldby Bubu Pateh Jallow, Vice
Chair of the IPCC Science Working GroupLead
Author, Coordinating Lead Author and Review
Editor of IPCC ReportsChair of the LDC Expert
GroupLaunching the 2007 Human Development
ReportBanjul, March 2008
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Content of the Presentation

• Greenhouse emissions and Concentrations
• Observed Climate Change
• Projected Climate Change
• Climate Change Impacts with particular reference
  to Africa and The Gambia
• Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions with
  particular reference to Africa and The Gambia
• Adapting to Climate Change with particular
  reference to Africa and The Gambia
• Mechanisms for Political and international
  cooperation in the a divided world
• Recommendations for Future Action

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Aggregate Contributions of Major GHG Emitting
Countries
39 (65 of World Population) of the 173 Countries
are responsible for 80 of the global emissions
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Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in The Gambia

• A total of 181 Gg of Carbon Dioxide were emitted
  into the atmosphere while about 50,000 Gg were
  removed from the atmosphere by various
  socio-economic activities conducted in The Gambia
  in 1993.
• Base in the Global Warming Potential Index this
  translates to a total uptake of about 45 Million
  Tons of CO2 Equivalent
• With a population of 1,025,867, the per capita
  uptake is 44.2 Tons CO2 Equivalents/capita.

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Global-average radiative forcing estimates and
ranges
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Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change
Gobal mean temperature Global average sea
level Northern hemisphere Snow cover
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Global mean temperatures are rising faster with
time
Period Rate Years ?/decade
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Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Best estimate for low scenario (B1) is 1.8C
(likely range is 1.1C to 2.9C), and for high
scenario (A1FI) is 4.0C (likely range is 2.4C
to 6.4C). Broadly consistent with span quoted
for SRES in TAR, but not directly comparable
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Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity
Surface warming following a sustained doubling of
CO2 concentrations
Best estimate 3C likely 2-4.5C very
unlikely less than 1.5C higher values not
ruled out
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Projections of Future Changes in Climate

• Projected warming expected to be
• greatest over land and at most high northern
  latitudes
• and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of
  the North Atlantic Ocean

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Projections of Future Changes in Climate

• Precipitation increases very likely in high
  latitudes
• Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions

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Drought is increasing in most places
Mainly decrease in rain over land in tropics and
subtropics, but enhanced by increased atmospheric
demand (evaporation) with warming
The most important spatial pattern (top) of the
monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for
1900 to 2002. The time series (below) accounts
for most of the trend in PDSI.
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Projected Changes in Climatein The Gambia

• On the average, by 2075, mean temperature of The
  Gambia is estimated to increase by 3oC to 4.5oC
  depending on the GCM used.
• By 2100, rainfall in The Gambia is expected to
  vary from -59 to 29.
• Little change is estimated in solar radiation
  (-5 to 6) by 2100.

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WHAT DOES THIS SCIENCE PROJECT ION MEAN FOR
AFRICA AND THE GAMBIA

• What are the potential IMPACTS of the Climate
  Changes
• Are we ready for the Challenges posed by the
  IMPACTS

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Agricultural production and food security

• By 2080, arid and semi-arid land in Africa could
  increase by 5-8 (60-90 million hectares).
• Crop net revenues will likely fall by as much as
  90 by 2100, with small-scale farms being the
  most affected.
• It is estimated that by 2100, parts of the
  sub-Sahara Africa will likely experience
  agricultural losses of between 2 and 7 of the
  GDP
• In The Gambia Grain Production will decrease
  while Groundnut Production will increase (Be
  Cautioned)
• Productivity of The River Gambia will increase in
  the short term but will decrease in the long term
• Rangeland productivity will decrease in The
  Gambia and hence livestock will be affected.

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Already Bad Situation of Water Resources will be
exacerbated

• The population at risk of increased water stress
  in Africa is projected to be between 75-250
  million people by 2020 and 350-600 million people
  by the 2050.
• A 3C temperature increase could lead to 0.4
  1.8 billion more people at risk of water stress.
• Reduced rainfall will lead to reduction in
  Groundwater availability particularly in the
  UPPER AQUIFER from which most of the water supply
  for The Gambia is withdrawn
• Reduced rainfall will lead to reduced freshwater
  availability in the River Gambia and so more
  saline intrusion into the River

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Inundation and Erosion of low-lying lands will be
exacerbated by climate variability and change,
impacting severely on coastal settlements

• Projected sea level rise would increase flooding,
  particularly on the coasts of eastern Africa
• Sea level rise will likely increase the high
  socioeconomic and physical vulnerability of
  coastal cities.
• Sea Level Rise of one metre will inundate the
  Capital City (Banjul) of The Gambia
• The cost of adaptation to sea level rise could
  amount to at least 5-10 of GDP.

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Anthropogenic Climate Change will negatively
impact Human health in Africa

• A 5-7 potential increase (mainly altitudinal) in
  malaria distribution is projected, with little
  increase in the latitudinal extent of the disease
  by 2100.
• It is estimated that by the 2080s an additional
  80 million people will likely be at risk of
  malaria.

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WE MUST FACE THE CHALLENGE

• In two ways
• Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and
  Concentrations into the Atmosphere
• Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change

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Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases

• On mitigation, the GHDR calls on developed
  countries to demonstrate leadership by cutting
  greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80 of 1990
  levels by 2050 and Developing countries cut
  emissions by 20 of 1990 levels by 2050.
• The report advocates a mix of carbon taxation,
  more stringent cap-and-trade programmes, energy
  regulation, and international cooperation on
  financing for low-carbon technology transfer.

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All sectors and regions have the potential to
contribute to Mitigation of Emissions
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Mitigation of GHG Emissions in The Gambia

• Rural electrification using solar generators
• Greenhouse Gas Abatement using Improved Cooking
  Stoves to reduce fuelwood consumption Project
  proposal of US 20 Million over a 20 year
  horizon to serve 25,000 households nationwide
• Reducing CO2 emissions from organic waste
  combustion through composting Project Proposal
  of US 1.4 Million covering a period of 15 year
  horizon

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Mitigation of GHG emissions in The Gambia

• Fuel Switching through Replacement of fuelwood by
  liquefied petroleum gas Project Proposal at a
  cost of US 3.9 Million to increase Penetration
  of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) over a period of
  30 years and covering 18,000 households
• Carbon sequestration through forest management A
  Project Proposal at a cost of US 2.6 Million on
  Reforestation and popularisation of community
  forestry for a 7 year horizon and to cover 7,400
  hectares.

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Policies are available to governments to realise
mitigation of climate change

• Effectiveness of policies depends on national
  circumstances, their design, interaction,
  stringency and implementation
• Integrating climate policies in broader
  development policies
• Regulations and standards
• Taxes and charges
• Tradable permits
• Financial incentives
• Voluntary agreements
• Information instruments
• Research and development

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Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts
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What are Ranges of Adaptation Measures

• Africa has developed several copings strategies
  to adapt to current climate variability but these
  will be inadequate to adapt to climate change
• A range of factors including wealth, technology,
  education, information, skills, infrastructure,
  access to resources, and various psychological
  factors and management capabilities determine the
  adaptive capacity of a nation or continent.
• Africa is very poor in most of these factors
• HENCE, ADAPTIVE CAPACITY OF AFRICA IS VERY LOW

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What are Ranges of Adaptation Measures

• Emerging range of livelihood adaptation practices
  being observed in parts of Africa include
• Diversification of livelihood activities,
• Institutional architecture
• Adjustments in farming operations
• Income-generation projects
• Migration to earn an income and make remittance
  and
• The move towards off- or non-farm livelihood
  incomes.

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Suggested Adaptation Activities in Africa

• Rehabilitation of natural coastal buffers such as
  mangroves and coral reefs and provision of
  alternate livelihood options to relieve the root
  causes of destruction of coastal buffers.
• Improve risk and disaster management capacity
• Increase institutional capacity to implement
  integrated coastal zone management, including
  climate change effects on productive coastal
  systems, in particular in the water, fisheries
  and coastal agriculture sectors.

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Suggested Adaptation Activities in Africa

• Implementation of measures at community level
• Water harvesting techniques
• Introduction of drought resistant varieties of
  local crops
• Facilitation of food banks
• Promotion of irrigation
• Implementation of demonstration projects to
  improve capacity and awareness for sustainable
  water management including
• Run-off dikes to capture rainfall
• Promotion of water efficient technologies
• Introduction and dissemination of drip
  irrigation techniques

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Specific Adaptation Measures for The Gambia
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Recommendations based on the GHDR

• Develop a multilateral framework for avoiding
  dangerous climate change under the post-2012
  Kyoto Protocol and Strengthen the framework for
  international cooperation
• Stronger Political Will and International
  Cooperation

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Stronger Political Will and International
Cooperation

• At COP 13 in Bali, a comprehensive process was
  launched to enable the full, effective and
  sustained implementation of the Convention
  through long-term cooperative action, now, up to
  and beyond 2012, in order to reach an agreed
  outcome.
• The agreed outcome will address
• (a) A shared vision for long-term
  cooperative action, including a long-term
  global goal for emission reductions,
• (b) Enhanced national/international action
  on mitigation of climate change

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Stronger Political Will and International
Cooperation

• (c) Enhanced action on adaptation,
  including, international cooperation to support
  urgent implementation of adaptation actions, risk
  management and risk reduction strategies,
  disaster reduction strategies , economic
  diversification to build resilience and ways to
  strengthen the catalytic role of the Convention.
• (d) Enhanced action on technology development
  and transfer to support action on mitigation and
  adaptation,
• (e) Enhanced action on the provision of
  financial resources and investment to support
  action on mitigation and adaptation and
  technology cooperation,

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Recommendations based on the GHDR

• Put in place policies for sustainable carbon
  budgetingthe agenda for mitigation
• Put climate change adaptation at the centre of
  the post-2012 Kyoto framework and international
  partnerships for poverty reduction
• Review of The Kyoto Protocol and
• Enhance Contribution of Carbon Markets

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Review of The Kyoto Protocol

• COP/MOP 3 also Agreed that the second review of
  the Kyoto Protocol shall aim to further enhance
  the implementation of the Protocol and further
  elaborate upon a number of its elements, in
  particular adaptation
• The Second Review shall attempt to address the
  issues of
• (a) Extending the share of proceeds to assist
  in meeting the costs of adaptation to joint
  implementation and emissions trading
• (b) The scope, effectiveness and functioning
  of the flexibility mechanisms, including ways and
  means to enhance an equitable regional
  distribution of CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM
  projects
• (c) The minimization of adverse effects of
  climate change, effects on international trade,
  and social, environmental and economic impacts on
  other Parties

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The Carbon Market has the Potential

• In negotiations on a successor pact to the Kyoto
  Protocol that will assist in the avoidance of
  dangerous climate change, efforts must be
  directed to Mobilizing Finance for the Climate
  Challenge
• Predictable carbon pricing is needed to direct
  world investment flows toward an economy that
  could minimize climate change,
• Sufficiently high and long-term predictable
  price for carbon will be central for mobilizing
  capital for the new economy,

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The Carbon Market has the Potential

• As regards to financing to meet the challenges of
  global warming,
• the Adaptation Fund of the Kyoto Protocol must
  urgently and quickly become operational to
  climate proof vulnerable economies,
• the Clean Development Mechanism of the Protocol,
  which has the potential to generate up to 100
  billion of investment flowing from North to South
  into clean and green energy projects, needed to
  be supplemented by significant contributions from
  industrialized countries.
• Developing countries need all the financial and
  technical assistance in order to make the
  transition to lower carbon economies

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Recommendations based on the GHDR

• The Human Development Report argues for reforms
  including
• Additional financing for climate proofing
  infrastructure and building resilience,
• Northern governments should allocate at least 86
  billion annually by 2015 (0.2 of projected GDP).
• Increased international support for the
  development of sub-Saharan Africas capacity to
  monitor climate and improve public access to
  meteorological information.
• The integration/mainstreaming of adaptation
  planning into wider plans, programmes and
  strategies for reducing poverty and extreme
  inequalities, including PRSPs.

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Conclusions and Recommendations of GHDR

• The UNDP Global Human Development Report
  Fighting climate change concludes that one of
  the hardest lessons taught by climate change is
  that the historically carbon intensive growth,
  and the profligate consumption in rich nations
  that has accompanied it, is ecologically
  unsustainable.
• But the Report further argues, with the right
  reforms, it is not too late to cut greenhouse gas
  emissions to sustainable levels without
  sacrificing economic growth rising prosperity
  and climate security are not conflicting
  objectives.

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Ban Ki Moon UN Secretary General

• we know enough to act if we do not act now the
  impact of climate change will be devastating we
  have affordable measures and technologies to
  begin addressing the problem right now but
• what we do not have is time.

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Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor of California,

• The GHDR has made it clear that under Climate
  Change
• We are a divided world
• Bounded by Common but differentiated
  Responsibility
• But as Arnold told the Heads of States and
  Governments at the UN General Assembly
• rich nations and poor nations have common but
  different responsibilities, but one
  responsibility that all nations have now is
• action.

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• HENCE THE TIME
• TO ACT
• IS NOW

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• THANK YOU