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Global warming in an unequal world: A global deal for effective action

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Title: Global warming in an unequal world: A global deal for effective action


1
  • Global warming in an unequal world A global
    deal for effective action

2
The crisis the science of climate change
  • Climate change is real it is already dangerous
    heading towards catastrophe.
  • Climate change is urgent it needs us to act
    quickly and drastically
  • But how? Climate change is linked to economic
    growth. Can we re-invent growth?

3
  • Hockey stick
  • CO2
  • Temperature
  • increase

4
Hockey stick science Since 1900, climate warmed
by 0.8ºC. Past 10 year temperature highest since
records started
5
Is anthropogenic caused by burning of fossil
fuel for our energy needs
6
The challenge what is the least risky target?
  • If annual emissions remain at todays level,
    greenhouse gas levels would be close to 550 ppm
    by 2050
  • This would mean temperature increase of 3-5C
  • The difference in temperature between the last
    ice age (3 million years ago) and now is 5C
  • The 2C target is feasible but still dangerous

7
Business as usual is 5C even if we stabilise at
current levels increase is dangerous
8
Impacts devastation or can we cope?
  • Snow cover will contract. Indian glaciers are
    beginning to melt fast
  • Hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation
    events will increase.. (floods and droughts)
  • Tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will
    become more intense
  • Sea levels are expected to increase intense
    debate on how high will this be and by when. But
    can we wait????

9
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10
3-truths Climate change political and economic
challenge
  • Is related to economic growth. No one has built a
    low carbon economy (as yet)
  • Is about sharing growth between nations and
    between people. The rich must reduce so that the
    poor can grow. Create ecological space.
  • Is about cooperation. If the rich emitted
    yesterday, the emerging rich world will do today.
    Cooperation demands equity and fairness. It is a
    pre-requisite for an effective climate agreement.

11
CO2 emissions linked to energy and linked to
economic growth
12
Drastic reduction needed For 450 ppm (2C)
reduce 85 by 2050
13
The gap the challenge to re-invent what we mean
by growth?
14
Sharing the ecological and economic space CO2
emissions from fossil fuels in 2005
United States 21.13
Europe 16.58
Rest of the world 57.93
Japan 4.36
15
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16
Historical emissions A tonne of CO2 emitted in
1850 same value as tonne of CO2 emitted in 2005
17
Contract and converge
18
1 US citizen
  • 107 Bangladeshis
  • 134 Bhutanese
  • 19 Indians
  • 269 Nepalese
  • Unacceptable. Need to secure ecological space for
    growth

19
2007 High on rhetoric. Low on action
  • Need urgent action. We are running out of time.
    Need deep cuts 50-80 over 1990 levels by 2050
  • Kyoto agreed to small change 7 cuts
  • Even that failed. US and Australia walked out. EU
    emissions increased last year
  • Pressure on China and India..

20
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21
Decreased 3 only because of decrease of
economies under transition. Rich have increased
22
  • Only UK and Germany have cut.
  • But beginning to increase again.
  • Gas and reunification impact fading

23
Big words and small change
24
No energy transition made Little to reduce
energy emissions
25
No more kindergarten approach
  • Framework for cooperation
  • Industrialised countries to take deep cuts (30
    by 2020) minimum. US and Australia must join
  • Emerging rich and rest to participate, not by
    taking legally binding cuts but through a
    strategy to avoid future emissions.
  • What is the framework for low-carbon growth
    strategy?

26
Options exist re-invent growth. Avoid pollution
  • We can build clean coal power stations
  • Can build distributed power grid, based on
    renewable
  • 18 emissions from land use changes. Can protect
    forests Can plant new forests..

27
Clean, new and buried coal
  • Clean Coal Technologies Increase efficiency
  • Supercritical high steam pressure and
    temperature 40 efficiency low with Indian
    coal
  • FBC/PFBC Suitable for Indian coal smaller
    size similar efficiency gains as supercritical
  • IGCC Convert coal to gas 50 efficiency and
    more - expensive

28
Clean, new and buried coal
  • Most new large plants on supercritical cost
    effective RM of old and new plants should be
    based on this technology
  • FBC suitable for distributed generation
  • IGCC only high-end technology from climate
    perspective - needs technology transfer and
    financial assistance

29
Clean, new and buried coal
  • Coal bed methanation (CBM) and underground coal
    gasification (UCG) new coal
  • CBM recover methane from coal bed, concentrate
    it and burn it.
  • UCG Convert coal into gas underground untested
    - water contamination and subsidence major issues
  • Both have CO2 emissions similar to gas fired
    plants 50 lower

30
Clean, new and buried coal
  • Carbon-capture and storage burn coal, separate
    CO2, compress it and bury it underground - hope
    that it will not come out.
  • Uncertain, site-specific and expensive
    mitigation cost up to 50/ tonne CO2
  • Dump and forget syndrome constant leakage
    monitoring
  • Chances of accidental releases
  • Cant afford bad ideas

31
Nuclear
  • Cost, safety, proliferation and waste
  • Expensive both capital as well as generation
    even without including waste disposal costs

32
Renewables
39 of Indias primary energy comes from
renewables
33
Renewables
  • Cost the biggest barrier

34
Renewables
  • Cost the biggest barrier

35
Renewables
  • Vicious Cycle - Deployment, reduces cost, but the
    high cost deters deployment.

36
In our world forests are habitats of people.
Forests have economic value. Protecting forests
needs paying for services paying local
communities to protect forests benefit from its
resources Countries cannot keep forests without
getting economic value Costs for carbon storage
peanuts..
37
Options but..
  • The South will do what North has done
  • Will first get rich add to pollution then
    invest in cleaning it up
  • Will cut forests and convert to agriculture and
    then depress the price of food
  • A low-carbon growth strategy will cost money. The
    South will need to invest in efficiency,
    pollution control and protecting forests as
    forests
  • This needs change in global framework

38
CDM instrument to make this transition. But
designed to fail
  • Aim to get cheap emission reduction has lead to
    projects which do little. Low hanging fruits.
    Cannot pay for real change.
  • Designed for ineffective action additional to
    policy leads to nothing
  • Designed for mutual self-interest between private
    sector not public interest
  • Has become the Cheap Convoluted Corrupt
    Development Mechanism

39
Technology the answer?
  • Need to cut emissions by 80 by 2050
  • Need to peak emissions by 2015 and then cut
  • New (zero-fossil) technologies are not
    competitive or limited
  • Will not work without changes in consumption.
    Have to reduce and have to change the way we do
    business
  • Business as usual will not work. No soft answers
    will work
  • Not a green party but a green revolution
    needed
  • Will cost. Otherwise we will all pay

40
Reinvent the energy system. How?
41
No rocket science needed
  • Need framework for cooperation
  • Need framework that can push for energy
    transformation
  • Best option is to create per capita emission
    rights
  • Use the rights to create global create carbon
    market
  • Use the market (with rules for public good) to
    make the transition into low carbon economies

42
Not acceptable
43
Our position for Bali
  • Agree on legally binding emission targets for
    rich Annex-1 countries 30 by 2020
  • If countries opt out cut penalties stop trade
    do not allow them to participate in technology
    agreements
  • This round belongs to the industrialised
    countries. The engagement of the South will be
    through a financial framework to avoid emissions

44
Design for effective action
  • Reform CDM so that it is effective countries do
    sector-wise plans look at costs and then invest
    through CDM
  • Put a floor of US50 for tonne of carbon so that
    it allows for high end technology transfer
  • Sign technology transfer agreements let rich
    countries buy private technologies and make them
    available in key sectors

45
Politics for future
  • Cannot freeze global inequity
  • Cannot survive climate change rich or poor
  • Climate is not about the failure of the market
  • It is about our failure to make the markets work
    for public and common good
  • It is about politics..

46
Otherwise road to common hell
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