Title: From resource extraction to final consumption: A sequential global carbon, ecological footprint and
1From resource extraction to final consumption A
sequential global carbon, ecological footprint
and material flow analysis
- Craig Simmons, Co-founder and Technical Director
- Stanislav Shmelev, Ignacio Gonzalez, Kevin Lewis,
- Researchers
- Best Foot Forward
- www.bestfootforward.com
2Outline
- OPB Programme what is it?
- Methodology Overview
- Summary Sector Country Results
- Mapping to Consumption categories
- Using the results Modelling Mobility
3Best Foot Forward
- Oxford-based research consultants. Applied
environmental accounting. - Established in 1997
- Core staff with a network of international
partners associates - Queens Award, ACCA and Biffaward winners
- Have undertaken more than 100 resource flow
footprint projects - More than 50 clients incl. public, private and
NGOs - Co-founders of Global Footprint Network
4Queens Award
the UK's most prestigious awards for business
performance www.queensawards.org.uk
Award for continuous achievement in
sustainable development delivering
performance improvement for over 80 clients
5Queens Award
6One Planet Business Project
- Early 2005 WWF approached BFF to assess
feasibility of producing resource maps of
industry sectors by Country - Brief To help businesses better understand one
planet limits and the challenges of operating in
a future resource-constrained world. - Spring 2005 team formed of BFF, SEI and GFN
(later SERI) - October 2005 Feasibility report produced
outlining possible methodology data sources
7Feasibility Peer Review
- All outputs subject to 2-stage review
- Internal Reviewers
- Oliver Greenfield (WWF)
- Steve Goldfinger (GFN)
- Mathis Wackernagel (GFN)
- Craig Simmons (BFF)
- Ignacio Gonzalez (BFF)
- Tommy Wiedmann (SEI)
- Stefan Giljum (SERI)
- Plus Industry Partners, Steering Group, ERM
ADLittle - External Reviewers
- Manfred Lenzen (Univ of Sidney),
- Franz Berkhout (Univ of Amsterdam)
- Joe Ravetz (Univ of Manchester)
8Conclusions of Feasibility Study
- It IS possible to estimate global material flow,
ecological footprints CO2 emissions from
different industry sectors - but some outstanding data methodology issues
- This evidence base would be useful to industry
partners and policy-makers - but later stages of analysis need to be
undertaken in close collaboration with industry
partners/data providers to provide
sector-specific outputs
9Where we are now
- Nov 2005 July 2006
- Feasibility recommendations implemented
- Capacity building
- On-going consultations with Advisory Group
stakeholders - Meetings with OECD, IEA other data providers
- Ongoing internal reviews
- Methodology updates/refinements
- Outputs of current work programme
- Evidence base for 31 Countries and 48 sectors
using 2006 release OECD IO tables (data year
2000) - OPB Methodology training
- Mobility Model linking sector outputs to
consumption categories - Use of data to develop global transport scenarios
10Methodology Outline
http//www.bestfootforward.com/opb.html
- Methodology Report
- Data Summaries
- Selection of scenarios
- This presentation
11OPB MethodologyOverview
Material DE (MOSUS)
Input Output Analysis
Analysis links final demand to upstream material
use, footprint and carbon emissions for each
sector by country
CO2 Emissions (IEA)
- Source OECD (2006)
- Coverage 48 Industrial Sectors 31 Countries
Footprint (GFN)
Imports (COMTRADE)
12OPB MethodologyGeneral Scheme
- For each of the three analyses
- Data sources resolution, data years, format
- Method for dealing with domestic production and
imports - Allocation to IO sectors
Material DE (MOSUS)
CO2 Emissions (IEA)
Footprint (GFN)
Imports (COMTRADE)
13OPB MethodologyMaterial Flow Analysis
- Measured material use of industry DE (used)
Imports (intermediate products only) - Material Domestic Extraction (DE) data
- Developed by SERI during the course of MOSUS
project (www.mosus.net) - Format follows EUROSTAT (2001) guidelines
- Project aggregated in 10 resource groups (kt)
- Biomass (152) sum.to agric/forestry/fishing
- Fossil Fuels (6) summarised to coal/oil/gas
- Metal Ores (37) summarised to ferrous/non-f
- IC. Minerals (65) sum. to indust/construction
- Coverage 188 countries from 1980 to 2002
Material DE (MOSUS)
CO2 Emissions (IEA)
Footprint (GFN)
Imports (COMTRADE)
14OPB Methodology Material Flow Analysis
Material DE (MOSUS)
Example France, 2002
CO2 Emissions (IEA)
Footprint (GFN)
Imports (COMTRADE)
15OPB Methodology Material Flow Analysis
- Imports extracted from COMTRADE.
- Products categories follow SITC, Rev.1.
- Level of detail
- Groups 625 (4-digit level)
- Assumption Imported materials are mapped to
those sectors which outputs contain same or
similar products. - Only imports going to intermediate demand
included
Material DE (MOSUS)
CO2 Emissions (IEA)
Footprint (GFN)
Imports (COMTRADE)
16OPB Methodology Material Flow Analysis
- Allocation to IO sectors
- Fossil Fuels ? IO Sector 3
- Mining Quarrying (Energy)
- Metal Ores Iron ? IO Sector 12 Iron Steel
- Non-Ferr. Metals? IO Sector 13 Non-ferr.
metals - IC Minerals I. Min. ? IO Sector 11
Other non-metallic mineral products - C.Min ? IO Sector 26 Construction
- Biomass Agri. Fishing ? IO Sector 1
- Agriculture, hunting, fishing and forestry.
- Forestry ?IO Sector 6
Wood products - of wood and cork
Material DE (MOSUS)
CO2 Emissions (IEA)
Footprint (GFN)
Imports (COMTRADE)
17Italy materials by sector
18OPB MethodologyCO2 Emissions
- Domestic Production
- Source International Energy Agency www.iea.org
- CO2 Emissions for Fuel Combustion database (2005
Edition) - Coverage 30 OECD Countries (1960-2002) and over
100 Non-OECD Countries (1971-2002) - Level of detail
- 6 main groups
- 33 sub-groups
Material DE (MOSUS)
CO2 Emissions (IEA)
Footprint (GFN)
Imports (COMTRADE)
19OPB MethodologyCO2 Emissions
Material DE (MOSUS)
CO2 Emissions (IEA)
Footprint (GFN)
Imports (COMTRADE)
20OPB MethodologyCO2 Emissions
- Embodied in Imports
- Calc. from Imports data (COMTRADE/NFA)
- Calculation Process
- NFA contains data for Embodied Energy (Gj/t) for
materials. Data collated from Alcorn, 1998 IVEM,
1999 and LCA. Exception of Fuels,
lubricants, Data from DUKES. - Energy embodied in every imported category
- Converted to CO2/t using world average carbon
Material DE (MOSUS)
CO2 Emissions (IEA)
Footprint (GFN)
Imports (COMTRADE)
21OPB MethodologyCO2 Emissions
Material DE (MOSUS)
CO2 Emissions (IEA)
Footprint (GFN)
Imports (COMTRADE)
22OPB MethodologyCO2 Emissions
- Allocation to IO sectors
- Domestic production
- IEA Sectoral disaggregation follows ISIC Rev.3 so
allocation was quite straightforward. - For those IEA categories which corresponded to
more than one IO Sector, percentages out of total
sectoral output were used. - Embodied in Imports
- Followed the same allocation as the imported
categories which they were calculated from.
Material DE (MOSUS)
CO2 Emissions (IEA)
Footprint (GFN)
Imports (COMTRADE)
23OPB MethodologyCO2 Emissions
Material DE (MOSUS)
CO2 Emissions (IEA)
Footprint (GFN)
Imports (COMTRADE)
24Italy CO2 by sector
25OPB MethodologyEcological Footprint
- Source NFA, 2005 GFN www.footprintnetwork.org
- Coverage 149 countries, times series1961-2002
- Based on UN/FAO/IEA statistics on production,
imports, exports and yields for resource and
product categories. - For a detailed description of the method, see
Monfreda et al. (2004) and Wackernagel et al
(2004b).
Material DE (MOSUS)
CO2 Emissions (IEA)
Footprint (GFN)
Imports (COMTRADE)
26OPB MethodologyEcological Footprint
Material DE (MOSUS)
CO2 Emissions (IEA)
Footprint (GFN)
Imports (COMTRADE)
27OPB MethodologyEcological Footprint
- Allocation to IO sectors
- All land types except energy and built land
allocated to IO Sector 1 Agriculture - Fossil Fuels Domestic Production
allocated using sectoral percentages from CO2
Emissions (IEA data) - Fossil Fuels Imports allocated using sectoral
percentages from embodied CO2 Emissions in
imports - Nuclear hydro land -gt IO Sector 26 Prod.
Collec. Distri. Of Electricity. - Built land -gt IO Sector 30 Construction
Material DE (MOSUS)
CO2 Emissions (IEA)
Footprint (GFN)
Imports (COMTRADE)
28Italy footprint by sector
29OPB MethodologyIO Analysis
- Extended OECD IO Tables
- The extension consists of adding vectors of
Material Inputs/Outputs in physical units. - These vectors contain
- -Domestic Extraction
- -Ecological Footprints
- -Imports
- -CO2 Emissions
- -Domestic Production
- -Embodied in Imports
Input Output Analysis
- Source OECD (2006)
- Coverage 48 Industrial Sectors 31 Countries
30OPB MethodologyIO Analysis
- Extended OECD IO monetary
- tableswith physical data
Input Output Analysis
- Source OECD (2006)
- Coverage 48 Industrial Sectors 31 Countries
31OPB MethodologyIO Analysis
- Classic IO Analysis
- Total intensity vectors derived from Leontief
inverse matrices. - Derived for each resource for each sector
interaction for each country
Input Output Analysis
- Source OECD (2006)
- Coverage 48 Industrial Sectors 31 Countries
32OPB MethodologyIO Analysis
- General Equations
- ci
- LIM (I A)-1
- A Technical Coefficient Matrix aij
rj
Xj
Zij
Xj
33IO Health Warning
- Using extended monetary IO tables has both
advantages and disadvantages - Advantages
- Provides clear analytical framework
- Uses existing readily available economic data
- Provides one method of allocating resource use
34IO Health Warning
- Disadvantages
- Economic NOT ecological allocation method
- Sectors are artificial creations do not follow
resource flows - Problems mapping resources to sectors
- Low resolution tables make things worse
- Assumption of homogeneity within sectors
- Confounds economic and ecological datasets
(decoupling) - DANGER May detract from developing PIOTs
35Some headline findings
- Material Flows
- Ecological Footprints
- Carbon dioxide emissions
- By sector
- By Country
36Global materials by sector
Global allocation of materials (tonnes) to
sectors (ISIC Rev 1 classification) Note 48
sectors aggregated for clarity into ISIC classes
37Global Materials by Sector by Country
(units 000s tonnes)
38Global Footprint by sector
Global allocation of footprint (gha) to sectors
(ISIC Rev 1) Note 48 sectors aggregated for
clarity into ISIC classes
39Global Footprint by sector by country
(units millions global hectares)
40Global CO2 emissions by sector
Global allocation of CO2 (Mtonnes) to sectors
(ISIC Rev 1) Note 48 sectors aggregated for
clarity into ISIC classes
41CO2 Emissions by sector by country
(units millions tonnes)
42Mapping sectors to consumption categories
- Outputs from one or more sectors combine to meet
consumer demands, wants or needs. - For example, the desire for mobility is met by
the vehicle manufacturers, fuel suppliers, repair
industry, education, rubber and metal sectors
etc. - Using spending by purpose data (COICOP) it is
possible to estimate the aggregate impact
(footprint, CO2, materials) of particular
consumption category.
43Mapping sectors to consumption categories
global footprint data
Summary CIOCOP classification
44Mapping sectors to consumption categories
global materials data
Summary CIOCOP classification
45Mapping sectors to consumption categories
global CO2 data
Summary CIOCOP classification
46So What?
- The evidence base for sectors combined with
spending data by purpose allows us to explore - Effect of changing sector efficiencies (impact/
final demand) on environmental impact of meeting
needs - Impact of changing consumer demand on sector
consumption - Since we know volume of materials used we can
also cost future consumption - With these two environmental levers it is
possible to model most types of scenarios - Only additional data needed is LCA data (to help
look at sub-sector impacts), stakeholder data,
and economic data for forecasting (demand and
commodity prices).
47Work in Progress Consumption Model
48Work in Progress Resource intensities
49Work in Progress Resource intensities
50Work in Progress Resource intensities
51Work in Progress Resource drill-down
52Ongoing
- Responding to stakeholder requests for
sector-level analyses and scenarios - Integrating commodity prices
- Further refinement/extension of methodology
- Seeking funding for annual update
- Linking into BFF analyses at company, regional
and product level
53Thank You
http//www.bestfootforward.com/opb.html
- Methodology Report
- Data Summaries
- Selection of scenarios
- This presentation
54Thank you