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Communicating Societal Impacts An Objective Methodology WDTB Winter Weather Workshop October 9, 2002

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The Snowfall Will Become Lake Enhanced over Parts of the Niagara Frontier by ... Snow Will Spread Across the Finger Lakes and over Sites East of Lake Ontario. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Communicating Societal Impacts An Objective Methodology WDTB Winter Weather Workshop October 9, 2002


1
CommunicatingSocietal Impacts--- An Objective
MethodologyWDTB Winter Weather
WorkshopOctober 9, 2002
2
The Challenge
  • Do Similar Storms Produce Different Impacts on
    the Public?
  • Can We Develop a Set of Criteria so the
    Forecasters Can Objectively Evaluate Potential
    Impacts?
  • How Can We Communicate the Potential Impacts to
    the Public?

3
Winter Storm Event C
4
(No Transcript)
5
Buffalos Greatest 24-hour Snowfalls
  • Dec 9-10, 1995 37.9 inches
  • Jan 10-11, 1982 25.3 inches
  • Nov 20, 2000 24.9 inches
  • Dec 15-16, 1945 24.3 inches
  • Nov 30/Dec 1, 79 20.1 inches

6
Monday 4AM Forecast
  • NYZ010-011-201635-ERIE-GENESEE-INCLUDING THE
    CITIES OF...BATAVIA...BUFFALO435 AM EST MON NOV
    20 2000
  • ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
    TONIGHT...
  • .TODAY...SNOW DEVELOPING THIS MORNING...THEN A
    BAND OF HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL MOVE SOUTH
    INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATION
    OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LIKELY BY RUSH HOUR ACROSS
    NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES. HIGH ABOUT
    35. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
    15 TO 25 MPH.
  • .TONIGHT...BLUSTERY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
    PRODUCING TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 8 INCHES
    BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION BY MORNING.
    LOW IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
    CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. CHANCE OF
    SNOW 100 PERCENT.
  • .TUESDAY...CONTINUED BLUSTERY WITH SNOW LIKELY.
    HIGH NEAR 30. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT.

7
Effects of Chestnut Storm
  • Buffalo Airport Closed 24 Hours
  • All Roads Closed Including NY Thruway
  • Thousands stranded.. Including over 2500 school
    children
  • Power Outages Affecting 10,000
  • Activation of 200 National Guard
  • Gov Pataki Declares State of Emergency
  • 43.5 Million in Overall Damage in West NY (20M
    Erie Co)
  • Postponement of Sabres/Flyers Games

8
Are All Major Lake Effect Storms Alike?
9
Similarities Between Gary and Chestnut
  • States of Emergency Declared
  • Buffalo International Airport Closed Down
  • New York State Thruway Closed
  • Buffalo Sabres Games Postponed

10
Theres More to a Warning Than The Amount
Total Snowfall
Clean up Costs (in Millions)
11
Theres More to a Warning Than The Amount
Total Snowfall
Days of Cleanup
12
Theres More to a Warning Than The Amount
Total Snowfall
Number Stranded Schoolchildren
13
Gary Occurred During a WEEKEND
Chestnut Occurred on the FIRST DAY of the
WORKWEEK at Rush Hour.
  • Timing of this storm was CRITICAL !!!

14
Chestnut Struck With Perfect Timing
Rush hour
Hourly Snowfall
15
Major Winter Storms Have to be Handled
Individually
  • One 24 Snowstorm May Be Totally Different From
    Another 24 event
  • Must be Able to Highlight IMPACT POTENTIAL
  • The Forecaster Must Assess Societal Impacts

16
Assessing Societal ImpactsAn Objective Approach
  • Timing of the Storm
    (Day of Week / Time of day)
  • Seasonality
  • Type of Snow
  • Post Storm Conditions

17
Assessing Societal Impacts
  • Timing of the Storm
    (Day of Week / Time of day)
  • Seasonality
  • Type of Snow
  • Post Storm Conditions

18
Time of Day / Day of Week
Weekend 7 AM to 4 PM Some activity, church,
shopping, events (2) 4 AM to 7 AM Very little
activity (1) Weekday 9 PM to 5 AM Little
activity, removal crews good progress (1) 5 AM
to 7 AM Decisions made by officials, increased
traffic (4) 7 AM to 9 AM Rush hour (5) 9 AM
to Noon Reduced Activity. School dismissal
decisions? (3) Noon to 4 PM Work / School
Dismissal Decisions (4) 4 PM to 6 PM Evening
Rush Hour (5) 6 PM to 9 PM Evening
activities, sports, restaurants, etc (2 to 4)
Monday Prior To 5 PM (3)
19
Communicating Societal Impacts
  • Timing of the Storm
    (Day of Week / Time of day)
  • Seasonality
  • Type of Snow
  • Post Storm Conditions

20
Seasonality
  • First major snow of the season (5)
  • First storm after a long thaw (4)
  • Mid season storm during a period of sub freezing
    weather and daily light snows (2)
  • Late season, fast melting, warm ground (2 or 3)

21
Communicating Societal Impacts
  • Timing of the Storm
    (Day of Week / Time of day)
  • Seasonality
  • Type of Snow
  • Post Storm Conditions

22
Type of Snow
  • Wet (3 to 5) difficult in driving and removing
    but easier to treat chemically due to temps roof
    collapses heart attack snow
  • Fluffy (1 to 3) ease in removal more difficult
    to treat greasy driving
  • Windy (3,4) drifting visibility problems,
    (especially with dry fluffy snow)

23
Communicating Societal Impacts
  • Timing of the Storm
    (Day of Week / Time of day)
  • Seasonality
  • Type of Snow
  • Post Storm Conditions

24
Post Storm Conditions
  • Sub freezing, wintry Snow to hang around and
    pile up (4-5 early-mid winter, 3 late)
  • Mild, above freezing long term Snow will melt
    off or diminish in a few days (2)
  • Mild, short term Snow to change to
    rain (1 or 2) but (3-4 if changing to IP/ZR)

25
Actual Warning - Generic
Urgent - Winter Weather Message National Weather
Service Buffalo NY 445 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2000
...Plowable Snowfall Expected for Parts of
Western New York Today... .A Compact Low
Pressure System near Lake Huron this Morning Will
Track Just to the North of the Region Tonight and
Tuesday and this Will Result in a Widespread
Snowfall with Bands of Lake Effect Snow
Developing Downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario.
As the Storm System Approaches the Region this
Morning a General Snowfall Will Develop over the
Far Western Counties. The Snowfall Will Become
Lake Enhanced over Parts of the Niagara Frontier
by Midday While Light Snow Will Spread Across the
Finger Lakes and over Sites East of Lake Ontario.
Most Areas Will Receive a Couple Inches of Snow
by Nightfall...With as Much as 6 Inches of Snow
Possible over Parts of the Niagara Frontier.
Tonight...
26
Value Added Information
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BUFFALO NY 445 AM EST MON NOV 20 2000
...Plowable Snowfall Expected for Parts of
Western New York Today... .A Compact Low
Pressure System near Lake Huron this Morning Will
Track Just to the North of the Region Tonight and
Tuesday and this Will Result in a Widespread
Snowfall with Bands of Lake Effect Snow
Developing Downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario.
As the Storm System Approaches the Region this
Morning...a General Snowfall Will Develop over
the Far Western Counties. The snowfall will
Become Lake Enhanced over Parts of the Niagara
Frontier by Midday While Light Snow Will Spread
Across the Finger Lakes and over Sites East of
Lake Ontario. By mid afternoon a band of heavy
lake effect snow will develop over the northern
suburbs of Buffalo. This band of heavy snow will
shift south through the metropolitan area later
this afternoon and evening...which will greatly
impact this evenings rush hour.
27
NYZ010-011-201623- ERIE NY-GENESEE NY- INCLUDING
THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO NY...BATAVIA NY ...Lake
Effect Snow Warning For This Afternoon And
Tonight... A General Snowfall Will Develop This
Morning And Produce Accumulations of 2 to 3
Inches By Nightfall. This Snowfall Will Be
Accompanied by a Band of Heavier Lake Effect Snow
That Will Develop to The North of Buffalo Early
This The Afternoon. This Band of Heavy Lake
Effect Snow Is Expected to Slowly Drift to The
South Across Genesee And North Central Erie
County Later This Afternoon And Evening...Where
Accumulations of up to 6 Inches Are Possible by
Nightfall. The Steadiest And Heaviest Snow For
The Buffalo Metropolitan Area Is Expected to Fall
Between 2 and 6 PM. Commuters During This
Evenings Rush Hour Will Likely Experience Very
Difficult Driving Conditions. Snowfall Rates of
an Inch or Two an Hour, Combined with a Heavy
Volume of Traffic, Could Clog Many of the Major
Arteries Around The Metropolitan Area. Motorists
Should Be Prepared For a Slow and Difficult
Evening Commute.
28
Addressing Societal Impacts
  • If any of the impact criteria are ranked at a
    category 4 or 5 by the consensus forecast
  • Then include a specific impact statement within
    the watch/warning.
  • Will allow officials to delineate between typical
    and high-impact storms.

29
Communicating Societal Impacts
  • Alerts Planning Officials To Critical Situations
  • Give School/Town Officials Time to Plan
  • Highlight Storms That Could Produce Emergency
    Situations From Those That Wont
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