Validation and Future Projections of Nursing Home and Home and Community Based Care Use

1
Validation and Future Projections of Nursing
Home and Home and Community Based Care Use By
VAs Long Term Care Planning Model
Bruce Kinosian(1,2) Eric Stallard (3) and
Linda Borgofsky (4) (1) CHERP, Philadelphia VA
Medical Center, Philadelphia, PA, (2) Division of
General Internal Medicine, University of
Pennsylvania, PA (3) Dept. of Sociology, Duke
University, Durham, NC (4) ADUSH, Policy and
Planning US Dept of Veterans Affairs(VA),
Washington DC.
Conclusions and Policy Implications

Projected and Actual ( )HCBC Use by
VISN, FY 2008
Expected and Actual NH Use by VISN 100 Sum of
National and VISN specific rates If rates are
same, each is 50 of total (e.g., VISN 4) If
VISN rate is less than expected, the National
rate is more than 50 of total (e.g., VISN 8) If
more than expected, National rate is less than
50 of the total (e.g., VISN 23)