Recap of Water Year 2009 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2010 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Loading...

PPT – Recap of Water Year 2009 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2010 PowerPoint presentation | free to download - id: 20654e-MWMwN



Loading


The Adobe Flash plugin is needed to view this content

Get the plugin now

View by Category
About This Presentation
Title:

Recap of Water Year 2009 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2010

Description:

25th Day, Month 0. 1-2 years back. index stn. real-time met. forcings for spin-up gap ... European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:52
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 37
Provided by: franciscom8
Category:

less

Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Recap of Water Year 2009 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2010


1
Recap of Water Year 2009 Hydrologic Forecast and
Forecasts for Water Year 2010
  • Francisco Munoz-Arriola
  • Alan F. Hamlet
  • Shraddhanand Shukla
  • Dennis P. Lettenmaier
  • JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group
  • Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
  • University of Washington

2
Outline
  • The UW West-wide Seasonal Hydrological Forecast
    System
  • Hydrology Model
  • Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)
  • Recap of Water Year 2009
  • ENSO conditions and 2008 Streamflow forecast
    reliability
  • Water year 2010
  • Warm ENSO El Niño Travieso or the Mischievous
    Boy
  • Land-surface conditions Soil Moisture (SM) and
    Surface Water Equivalent (SWE)
  • UW-West-wide Seasonal Hydrological Forecast
    System Forecasting 2010 streamflow
  • Summary

3
West-Wide Hydrologic Forecast
4
Snowpack State
VIC
Soil Moisture State
5
UW West-wide Seasonal Hydrologic Forecast System
6
Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)
Applications climate forecast
recent met data to generate perfect ICs
ensemble of historical met data to generate
ensemble forecast
ICs
Spin-up
Forecast
observed
hydrologic state
7
Simulated Streamflow
Historical Streamflow (simulated)
1-yr
Streamflow forecast (ESP)

1-yr
1915
2005
1960
1999
8
Recap of WY 2008
9
ECMRWF ENSO anomaly 2009
Predicted Neutral (N)
0.2
-0.6
Observed La Niña (LN)
-1.0
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts
http//www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/s
easonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/nino_plum
es_public_s3/
10
Soil Moisture and Snow (SWE) Evolution WY 2009
Jan 1st
Apr 1st
Jul 1st
Oct 1st
11
WY 2009 Streamflow Forecast
12
Validation Plot for 2008 Forecast (1961-2000) at
MILNE for predicted Neutral
3.4 Range 2009 -0.6 to 0.2
Ensemble Mean N years
Observations WY 2009
13
Validation Plot for 2008 Forecast (1961-2000) at
MILNE based on the observed LN
3.4 in 2009 -1
Ensemble Mean LN years
Observations WY 2009
14
Water Year 2010
15
ENSO Transition States
WY 2008
WY 2009
WY 2010
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts
http//www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/s
easonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/nino_plum
es_public_s3/
16
ECMRWF ENSO anomaly 2010
1.8
0.9
Forecast of September 2009
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts
http//www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/s
easonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/nino_plum
es_public_s3/
17
April-September Naturalized Flow for the Columbia
River at The MILNE, ID from Historic Water Years
vs January Nino 3.4 Anomalies.
1915-2005
18
The Mischievous Boy or El Niño Travieso visits
the PNW
NOAA, CFS Precipitation Forecast
IRI-Multi-model Probability Precipitation Forecast
Oct-Nov-Dec
Dec-Jan-Feb
19
Historical Streamflows (1915-2000)
All Years
20
WY 2010 Forecast
21
Initial Conditions (changes in weeks)
Sept 25th
Sept 1st
Oct 11th
SM
SWE
22
Streamflow Forecast on MILNE 1961-2000
All Years
23
Based on MILNE Climatology 1961-1999 ESPs
3.4 Range 2010 0.9 to 1.8
24
Forecast and Observed Streamflow Differences
MILNE
6 months
12 months
EN ensemble mean - Observed Average ()
25
Streamflow Forecast
http//www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/westwide/
sflow/index.shtml
26
Summary
  • Expected Neutral ENSO conditions at the beginning
    for the WY 2009 showed good agreement with
    respect to observed streamflows (simulated)
    during the Fall-Winter seasons for streamflow
    forecast during Sumer of 2009 forecast streamflow
    was underestimated
  • Recent increments in SM over parts of the Snake
    River Basin have improved the expected
    streamflows for WY 2010. However, a conspicuous
    warm phase of ENSO (EN) increase the likelihood
    of below normal streamflows over the SRB.
  • Stations along the mid- and upper SRB showed
    streamflows 8 to 12 (in average) below
    historical averaged streamflows for the following
    6 months

27
(No Transcript)
28
(No Transcript)
29
2008
January
June
June
January
2009
SWE
SM
30
Soil Moisture and Snow Water Anomalies
Sep 2009
Oct 2008
Jan 2009
Jun 2009
31
Soil Moisture and Snow Water Equivalent
Percentiles
32
SWE and SM
February
March
April
Simulated
Climatological
33
(No Transcript)
34
SWE and SM for the 2008 and 2009 WY
2008
Simulated
SWE
SM
Climatological
2009
35
Based on MILNE Simulated Observations 1915-2005
All Years
36
UW Forecast System
  • Less than 10 of the stations are around the
    Climatology the rest are below at the North of
    Columbia river basin
  • Around 50 of the stations at the eastern portion
    of the basin with Stremflows around the
    climatology
  • In the stations related with hydropower
    generation at 81 ofthe normal
  • Dalles at 88 of the normal
About PowerShow.com