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The Economic Impacts of Climate Change in the ECE Region


Global (left) and Europe (right) Main climate change effects in Europe ... At a projected 2 to 3 C, warming in most of NA regions will exceed global mean ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: The Economic Impacts of Climate Change in the ECE Region

The Economic Impacts of Climate Change in the ECE
United Nations Economic Commission for
  • Ján Kubi
  • Economic Commission for Europe
  • Dialogue of the Executive Secretaries
  • New York
  • October 2009

Todays Presentation
  • The effects of climate change in the ECE region
  • Economic impacts of climate change in the region
    adaptation and mitigation
  • Regional/global efforts and initiatives to
    address the impacts of climate change
  • The work of ECE in climate change

1) The effects of climate change in the ECE region
Main effects of climate change in the region
  • Warming in 21st century projected to continue at
    rate somewhat greater than global mean
  • Changes in precipitation mean that, in general,
    wet areas will get wetter, while dry areas become
  • Higher intensity and frequency of extreme weather
  • Sea level rises

Observed annual average temperatureGlobal (left)
and Europe (right)
Main climate change effects in Europe
  • Annual mean warming in 2080 to 2099 will be
    between 2.2 to 5.3C, compared to period 1980 to
  • Over same period, annual precipitation (rain,
    slow, sleet or dew) is projected to increase by
    up to 16 in northern Europe, especially in
    winter, but to decrease by between 4 and 27 in
    Mediterranean area
  • Summer droughts and heat waves will be more
    likely, more intense and longer in central Europe
    and in Mediterranean, rendering region more
    vulnerable to water stress and desertification
  • Snow season will become shorter and snow depth
    will decrease, although this may not affect
    coldest peaks of Europe

Main climate change effects in Central Asia
  • Warming over reference period is projected to be
    3.7C, well above global mean
  • Summer precipitation will drop by up to 13 ,
    most markedly in the western part of central
    Asia, while in winter, it will increase around 4
  • Accompanied by increase in frequency of very dry
    spring, summer and autumn seasons

Main climate change effects in North America
  • At a projected 2 to 3C, warming in most of NA
    regions will exceed global mean
  • Northern regions are expected to be hardest-hit
    by warming in winter, with projected warming
    reaching 10C. Hotter southwest areas will get
    warmer mainly during summer months.
  • Precipitation will be around 20 greater in
    Canada and northeastern US, but lower in
    southwest US. Southern Canada will become wetter
    in winter and spring and drier in summer.
  • In most of region, snow season will be shorter.

2) The economic impacts of climate change in the
ECE region
Main climate change impacts across region
  • Climate change in ECE region will have impact on
    access to water resources, food and security,
    ecosystems, human health and settlements/society
  • Extreme weather events, especially increased
    risks of inland flash floods and coastal flooding
    and increased erosion would have economy-wide
  • Heat waves and more wildfires will increase
    health risks
  • Mountainous areas will face reduced snow cover
    with implications for winter tourism and
    extensive species loss
  • In southern Europe, warming will reduce water
    availability, hydropower potential, summer
    tourism and crop productivity
  • There are clear links between climate change and
    secondary and tertiary economic sectors such as
    housing, transport and other infrastructure,
    insurance and financial services

Impacts on water resources
  • Water availability will rise in higher latitude
    regions where rainfall is higher
  • Greater water scarcity in hotter areas due to
    reduced rainfall and loss of snow meltwater
  • In Southern Europe, summer water availability
    could drop 30 at 2C warming
  • West Coast of USA could experience more erratic
    water supply
  • Water shortages will increase investment required
    in infrastructure, reduce agricultural output and
    increase infrastructure damage from subsidence.
    Negative implication for hydropower potential.

Impacts on food and security
  • Higher latitudes Canada, Russia and N. Europe
    could initially see increase in crop yield but
    this is expected to be short-lived due to crop
    tolerance threshold
  • In lower latitude regions Southern Europe,
    Western USA greater water stress will lead to
    substantial declines in crop yields

Economic Impacts on the ECE Region Are Moderate
Compared to Other Regions
GHG emissions in the ECE region
  • ECE region currently accounts for 49.5 of global
    GHG emissions and 50.8 of global GDP (PPP)
  • On per capita basis
  • North America - 3 times world average
  • EU and Russia 1.5 times world average
  • Measurable progress has been made in reducing
    emissions under UNFCCC

GHG abatement potential
  • Abatement potential varies considerably across
    region, due to
  • Sectoral split of economy
  • Carbon intensity starting point of sector in
  • Countrys economic growth

GHG emissions associated with GDP per capita
large variation across the region
Huge potential to reduce GHG emissions in region
  • ECE regions abatement potential up to 2030
    approximately 10.2 GtCO2e per year
  • Represents approximately -45 to -55 vs. 2030
    business-as-usual (BAU) or -35 to -45 vs. 2005
  • Abatement potential mainly in energy efficiency,
    low-carbon energy supply, terrestrial carbon
    (agriculture, forestry), technology, behavioural

Costs of reducing GHG emissions in the region
  • Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0 (by
    McKinsey) shows the abatement cost in EUR per
    tCO2e beyond BAU
  • Shows highest potential in building sector
    (lighting, electronics, insulation retrofit),
    transport sector (motor systems efficiency),
    waste recycling and electricity from landfills,
    all highly relevant areas for the ECE region.

3) Regional efforts and initiatives to address
the impacts of climate change in the ECE region
The ECE Region and the UN Efforts to Reduce
  • Europe has led the global effort to control GHG
  • 30 of the 31 countries that committed to emission
    reductions under the Kyoto Protocol of the
    UNFCCC, i.e. Annex I countries, are ECE economies

Other initiatives to cut GHG emissions
  • European Union
  • EU cap and trade Emission Trading System (EU
  • 2nd phase (2008 2012) covers 10,000
    installations, 50 of EUs CO2 emissions
  • Largest existing carbon market
  • 3rd phase (2012 2020) heavy industry will
    contribute significantly to overall target of
    cutting GHGs, no more free permits
  • EU Directive 20x20x20
  • 20 reduction in GHG emissions
  • 20 increase in efficiency
  • 20 share for renewables
  • EU Directive on energy performance of buildings
  • The US
  • Energy Independence Security Act (2007)
    Mandated increases in product efficiency,
    biofuels, RD
  • One-half of US states have implemented some
    mandate requiring a percentage of electricity to
    be produced by renewables
  • Waxman-Markey legislation Sets up a
    cap-and-trade system
  • Russia
  • Proposes to increase renewable energy production
    from 1 to 4.5 by 2020

Regional Coordination Mechanism
  • Under RCM, thematic working group on climate
    change established to
  • Design a regional action plan on climate change
    adaptation and mitigation
  • Prepare a system-wide regional road map for the
    implementation of COP-15 outcome
  • Coordinate and exchange information on financing,
    adaptation/mitigation, advocacy work

Regional climate change compendium
  • UNECE has compiled a regional climate change
    compendium, with inputs by all RCM members
  • This lists all organisations climate change
    activities, distinguishing between mitigation,
    adaptation and cross-cutting issues

4) The work of ECE in support of climate change
ECE Activities Addressing Climate Change
Reducing GHG emissions
  • ECE World Forum for Harmonization of Vehicle
    Regulations possible strategy for GHG abatement
    in automotive sector through
  • improved energy efficiency and use of sustainable
  • supporting market of plug-in hybrid vehicles
  • electric vehicles in longer run (20252040).
  • Currently developing market fuel quality
    standards, thus enabling vehicles to use fuels
    that minimize vehicle emission levels
  • Integrated transport emissions mitigation,
    including eco-driving, better transport
    infrastructure, including traffic management
    systems, to foster the development of intelligent
    transport systems and their implementation in all
    transport modes and infrastructure
  • Ad Hoc Group of Experts on Coal Mine Methane
    (CMM) promotes recovery and use of methane gas
    from coal mines to minimize GHG emissions
  • Ad Hoc Group of Experts on Cleaner Electricity
    Production from Coal and other Fossil Fuels
    reviews prospects for cleaner electricity
    production from fossil fuels and measures or
    incentives to promote investment in cleaner
    electricity production.
  • 1979 ECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary
    Air Pollution (LRTAP) and its 1999 Gothenburg
    Protocol aim to cut emissions of air pollutants,
    inter alia sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides
    (NOx) and non-methane volatile organic compounds
    (NMVOCs), which have direct or indirect impact on
    global warming

ECE Activities Addressing Climate Change -
  • Promoting energy efficiency
  • ECE Energy Efficiency 21 (EE21) programme to
    enhance countries energy efficiency and reduce
    GHG emissions through more efficient production,
    conservation and use of all energy sources
  • Global Energy Efficiency 21 Project (GEE21)
    transfers experience of ECE energy efficiency
    projects to other regions. Aims to identify
    needs, obstacles and best practices for the
    formation of an energy efficiency market
  • Programme to achieve maximal energy efficiency in
    regions housing
  • Land use, land use change and sustainable forests
  • Project to strengthen sustainable biomass supply,
    based on agro- and wood residues, from selected
    countries in the UNECE region to energy producers
    in the EU. Focus on enterprise development and

ECE Activities Addressing Climate Change -
  • Supporting design and implementation of
    adaptation strategies
  • Public-private partnerships in infrastructure for
    climate change adaptation
  • Integrated water resource management
  • UNECE Convention on the Protection and Use of
    Transboundary Watercourses and International
    Lakes (Water Convention) and its Protocol on
    Water and Health establish joint or coordinated
    surveillance and early-warning systems,
    contingency plans and response capacities, as
    well as mutual assistance to respond to outbreaks
    or incidents of water-related disease, especially
    those arising from extreme weather events
  • Based on integrated water resources management,
    the Guidance on water and adaptation to climate
    change provides advice on how to assess impacts
    of climate change on water quantity and quality,
    how to perform risk assessment, including health
    risk assessment, how to gauge vulnerability, and
    how to design and implement appropriate
    adaptation measures

ECE Activities Addressing Climate Change
cross-cutting issues
  • Strengthening institutions and processes for
    regional environmental governance and for
    national mitigation plans and adaptation
  • UNECE Convention on Environmental Impact
    Assessment in a Transboundary Context (Espoo
    Convention) and its Protocol on Strategic
    Environment Assessment (SEA), not yet in force,
    will ensure that Parties integrate consideration
    of environment into their plans and programmes at
    very early planning stage. SEA will be used to
    introduce climate change considerations into
    development planning.
  • Financing climate change mitigation and
    adaptation and boosting technology transfer
  • Financing Energy Efficiency Investments for
    Climate Change Mitigation project, with budget of
    ca. US 7.5m, to promote investment climate in
    which self-sustaining energy efficiency and
    renewable energy projects can be identified,
    developed, financed and implemented by local
    municipalities, factories or energy utilities.
    Participating countries Albania, Belarus, Bosnia
    and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Kazakhstan,
    Rep. of Moldova, Romania, Russian Federation,
    Serbia, the former Yugoslav Rep. of Macedonia,
    and Ukraine.

ECE Activities Addressing Climate Change
cross-cutting issues
  • Advocacy and access to information
  • UNECE Convention on Access to Information, Public
    Participation in Decision-making and Access to
    Justice in Environmental Matters (Aarhus
    Convention) and its Protocol on Pollutant Release
    and Transfer Registers (PRTRs) constitutes the
    only legally binding instrument to implement
    principle 10 of Rio Declaration, which provides
    for participation of citizens in environmental
    issues by giving them appropriate access to the
    information concerning the environment held by
    public authorities, including access to judicial
    or administrative proceedings, redress and
    remedy. Access to scientifically based
    information and public participation in
    decision-making on environmental issues are
    widely recognized as an important foundation for
    climate change action.
  • Strategy for Education for Sustainable
    Development integrates key themes of sustainable
    development, including climate change, into all
    education systems. ESD offers an essential way to
    shape knowledge and attitudes.
  • Environment Performance Reviews these include
    chapters on climate change or related issues
    which provide a comprehensive analysis of
    instruments used in the context of regional
    climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts,
    and a means to offer important policy
  • The Transport Health and Environment Pan-European
    Programme (THE PEP), a joint project of ECE and
    the World Health Organization Regional Office for
    Europe, aims to achieve more sustainable
    transport patterns and a better reflection of
    environmental and health concerns in transport
    policy. In particular, THE PEP also promotes
    sustainable urban transport, including
    alternative modes of transport.

ECE Activities Addressing Climate Change
cross-cutting issues
  • Monitoring, evaluation and analysis
  • Reviewing possibility of upgrading statistical
    work based on UNFCCC guidelines on compilation of
    emission inventories and UN Committee of Experts
    on Environmental-Economic Accounting (UNCEEA) to
    ensure that statistics on emissions become part
    of regular production and dissemination process
    of official national statistics.
  • European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme
    (EMEP) under LRTAP Convention monitors and models
    air quality, and is involved in reporting and
    estimating emissions. International working
    groups provide long-term monitoring of data that
    can identify changes that might be associated
    with a changing climate. EMEP is also responsible
    for integrated assessment modelling work to
    analyse environmental effects and to calculate
    the necessary emission abatement and related
    costs. In this way, cost-effective pollution
    control strategies can achieve the desired
    environmental targets at least cost. Recent use
    of Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions
    and Synergies (GAINS) integrated assessment
    model, developed by the Conventions Centre for
    Integrated Assessment Modelling, has explored
    synergies and trade-offs between emissions of air

ECE Activities Addressing Climate Change
cross-cutting issues
  • Monitoring, evaluation and analysis
  • Monitoring and analysis of forestry-related
    indicators, and promoting policy forums on
    climate change in the forest sector, as part of
    its work to promote sustainable forest
    management. Collects basic data on forest
    resource assessment (e.g. carbon sequestration
    and storage in forests) and the production of and
    trade in forest products (e.g. harvested wood
    products, substitution by wood of other, more
    carbon-intensive materials). It contributes to
    policy monitoring by reporting on qualitative
    indicators of sustainable forest management and
    by publishing a chapter in the Forest Products
    Annual Market Review on policies, which in recent
    years has included a comprehensive update on
    climate change policies affecting the forest
  • ECE World Forum for Harmonization of Vehicle
    Regulations (WP.29) working group developing
    worldwide harmonized light vehicle emission test