Haas Center for Business Research and Economic Development

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11th Annual Gulf Power Economic
Symposium Floridas Opportunities and Challenges
Haas Center for Business Research and Economic
Development Rick Harper, Ph.D.,
Director September 11, 2007
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Collect, Analyze, Disseminate data on NW
FL Web/Print publications Free data
services 850-474-2657 haas.uwf.edu
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• The National Picture Economic Drivers
• Slower GDP growth (2 going forward)
• Housing market correction (consumer spending)
• Subprime debacle (who owns those bonds?)
• Productivity growth down (lower organic growth)
• Energy prices / inflation (headed in right
  direction)
• Monetary policy (Fed bails out Wall Street)
• Growth abroad (makes up for lower US growth)
• Trade deficit shrinks (US as bargain basement)

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Revenue Estimating Conference
for the General Revenue Fund August 1,
2007 Since the General Revenue Estimating
Conference held in March, the housing market has
further deteriorated finally beginning to spill
over into business and consumer spending.
Altogether, the Revenue Estimating Conference has
reduced its General Revenue outlook by nearly
1.5 billion for Fiscal Year 2006-07 and 2007-08.
Final collections for Fiscal Year 2006-07 were
below estimate by 380.5 million or slightly more
than 1.4. For Fiscal Year 2007-08, expected
revenues were decreased by approximately 1.1
billion or about 4 from the earlier forecast.
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• Northwest Florida Outlook 2008/2009
• Insurance crisis
• Housing affordability
• Growth somewhat faster than national average,
  fail to close the gap with downstate
• Real estate market begins to recover
• Unemployment rises
• Availability of skilled labor
• Growing importance of quality of life issues

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• The National Picture Economic Drivers
• Slower GDP growth (2 going forward)
• Housing market correction (consumer spending)
• Subprime debacle (who owns those bonds?)
• Productivity growth down (lower organic growth)
• Energy prices / inflation (headed in right
  direction)
• Monetary policy (Fed bails out Wall Street)
• Growth abroad (makes up for lower US growth)
• Trade deficit shrinks (US as bargain basement)

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11th Annual Gulf Power Economic
Symposium Floridas Opportunities and
Challenges Questions?
Haas Center for Business Research and Economic
Development Rick Harper, Ph.D.,
Director September 11, 2007