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Alaska Permanent Fund Brief history and financial outlook for Fund growth and income

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Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation. Alaska Permanent Fund. Brief history and financial outlook ... Data as of June 30, 2002. 2. Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Alaska Permanent Fund Brief history and financial outlook for Fund growth and income


1
Alaska Permanent Fund Brief history and
financial outlook for Fund growth and income
Data as of June 30, 2002
2
Permanent Fund market value 24-month change in
principal and earnings reserve account
Earnings reserve
billions
Principal
3
Earnings reserve account 24-month change in
realized and unrealized income
  • As provided by law, all Fund income is deposited
    in the earnings reserve account.
  • It is retained there until appropriated by the
    legislature.

Unrealized income
Realized income
4
Earnings reserve reconciliation What happened to
the 4.9 billion?
6.5 billion June 30, 2000 ERA balance - 1.3
billion 2 years of inflation-proofing

transfers to principal -
2.0 billion 2 years of paying out
PFDs - 1.6 billion depreciation in
market value 1.6 billion June 30, 2002 ERA
balance
5
Fund principal sources of contributions as of
June 30, 2002
The Alaska Permanent Fund principal is protected
by the Alaska Constitution. The principal is
not available for appropriation.
Dedicated oil revenues
Inflation-proofing
Special appropriations
6
Funds total return annualized for the past,
recent times and the future
7
Funds asset allocation and control bands
8
Staying the course
  • Although there is a 1 in 4 chance that the Fund
    will earn a negative return in any single year,
    there is only a 1 in 20 chance that the Fund
    will earn a negative return over a 5-year period,
    and virtually no chance of a negative return over
    a 10-year holding period.

9
Range of market value
FY03 FY08
10th
billions
25th
50th
75th
90th
This is a volatility graph which projects the
range of likely outcomes in the future, with the
extremes of the bars indicating the less likely
probabilities.
10
Range of market value
FY03 FY08
10th
billions
25th
50th
75th
90th
How to read this graph It projects the range of
possible outcomes for the current year as well as
the next five, but each year assumes that the
Fund achieved the median return the prior year.
It is not simply an extrapolation.
11
Range of market value
FY03 FY08
The top edge of the bar indicates the 90th
percentile probability (that is, nine times out
of ten, the results are likely to be lower than
the corresponding number shown in the table
below).
90th
billions
75th
50th
25th
10th
12
Range of market value
FY03 FY08
The top edge of the second color in the bar
indicates the 75th percentile probability (that
is, three times out of four, the results are
likely to be lower than the corresponding number
shown in the table below).
90th
billions
75th
50th
25th
10th
13
Range of market value
FY03 FY08
The top edge of the third color in the bar
indicates the 50th percentile probability (that
is, one-half of the time, the results are likely
be lower than the corresponding number shown in
the table below and one-half of the time higher).
90th
billions
75th
50th
25th
10th
14
Range of market value
FY03 FY08
90th
billions
The top edge of the lowest color in the bar
indicates the 25th percentile probability (that
is, three times out of four, the results are
likely to be higher than the corresponding number
show in the table below).
75th
50th
25th
10th
15
Range of market value
FY03 FY08
90th
billions
The bottom edge of the bar indicates the 10th
percentile probability (that is, nine times out
of ten, the results will be higher than the
corresponding number show in the table below).
75th
50th
25th
10th
16
Range of principal balance
FY03 FY08
billions
17
Range of total earnings reserve
FY03 FY08
billions
18
Range of annual statutory net income
FY03
FY08
billions
19
Range of distributed income
FY03 FY08
billions
20
Range of per capita dividends
FY03 FY08
21
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