ClimateChange Impacting Hydrologic Forecasting

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• Climate-Change Impacting Hydrologic Forecasting
• Reggina Cabrera
• NOAA/National Weather Service
• Eastern Region, Chief Hydrologic Services
  Division

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River Forecast Centers
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Precipitation
Observed
Forecast
Observed
Stages
Forecast Process
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Challenge for Operational Hydrologists

• Numerous groups looking at climate change effects
  and hydrologic forecasters are being asked for
  long-term forecasts
• Developing experimental products

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Forecast and associated uncertainty
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Forecast Evolution
FROM Short-term, deterministic, water-level
forecast TO Long-term, probabilistic,
water-level and flow forecast (ESP)
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Daily Operations
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Short-term Forecast
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ESP
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Traces Historical and Conditional
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Probability of Exceedance
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Communications and Dissemination of Information

• Wide use of Internet and GIS capabilities have a
  revolutionary impact on products and forecast
  services

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Additional information for forecasters
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SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN REGION

• Existing conditions
• Soil moisture
• Drought monitor
• Average daily stream flow
• Past rainfall
• Reservoir considerations
• Meteorological outlook short and long
  term.
• Hydrologic Outlook

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Using GFS Ensemble Members
Experimental Product
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Water Resources Outlook
Streamflows 30-days 60-days
90-days
Experimental Product
Individual Locations 30-day
60-day 90-day
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Inundation Mapping
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Diversity of users

• Emergency Managers
• Agricultural Users
• General Public
• Water Managers
• Outreach and Education

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Integrated Water Resources
Variables
Precipitation
Temperature
Sea-Level
Water levels
Water Quality
River Flows
Models
CHPS
Water Quality
Meteorological
Hydrological
Ocean
Multi-Agency Effort
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