Links Between Air Pollution in Georgia and Cindy Crawford: Shortness of breath, increased heart rate

1
Links Between Air Pollution in Georgia and Cindy
Crawford Shortness of breath, increased heart
rates, and what GA EPD plans to do about it!!

• Jim Boylan, Amit Marmur, Jim Kelly
• Maudood Khan, and Dan Cohan
• (Georgia Environmental Protection Division)
• Georgia Air Quality Summit
• Atlanta, GA - May 4, 2006

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Integrated Approach to Air Quality Attainment
Individual measures, overall strategy to model

• Policy Development
• Identify menu of control options to be
  considered
• Consider regulatory and practical implications
  along with costs, benefits, sensitivities
• Develop and implement regulations and policies

• Air Quality Modeling
• Meteorology, emissions photochemistry for base
  future
• Sensitivity analysis of responses to various
  controls by location and species
• Impact (relative reduction factor) of overall
  strategy

Sensitivity to controls Impact attainment
(Y/N) of overall strategy
Iterative search for additional measures
Control measures to be evaluated
Estimated /ton of each measure
Modeled base controlled pollutant concentrations
Morbidity/mortality averted, visibility improved,
etc. due to control strategy

• Benefit Assessment
• Evaluate health and other benefits of control
  strategy

• Cost Assessment
• Evaluate cost-effectiveness (/ton) of each
  control option

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Non-Attainment in Georgia

• 8-hour ozone standard (85 ppb) Atlanta, Macon
• Annual PM2.5 standard (15 ?g/m3) Atlanta, Macon,
  Floyd county, Chattanooga

Ozone non-attainment areas
PM2.5 non-attainment areas
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Atmospheric Modeling System
Meteorology (MM5) Emissions
(SMOKE)

Air Quality (CMAQ)
?
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Modeling System
3-D Pollutant Distributions and 3-D Sensitivities
EGAS
Measured EI
Initial and boundary conditions
MOBILE6
TP
CMAQ
SMOKE
Photolysis rates
NRM
3-D Meteorological Fields (temperature, wind
speed, wind direction, humidity, etc)
MM5
Meteorological Observations
3-d model predictions
Land use, surface elevation, etc
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CMAQ is a Grid-Based Model
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CMAQ is a Supermodel!!

• Need to solve the Atmospheric Diffusion Equation
  for each species in each grid cell for each time
  step
• (200 100 horizontal grid cells) x (19 vertical
  layers) x (100 species) x (4 time step/hour) x
  (24 hours/day) x (365 days/year)
• IN AN ANNUAL SIMULATION, NEED TO SOLVE OVER
  1,330,000,000,000 PARTIAL DIFFERENTIAL
  EQUATIONS!!!!

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Demonstrating attainment using AQ models
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Future Emission Projection

• Controls and Rules (promulgated as of July 1,
  2004)
• Atlanta / Northern Kentucky / Birmingham 1-hr
  SIPs
• Combustion Turbine MACT
• Gulf Power SCR application
• Heavy Duty Diesel (2007) Engine Standard
• Industrial Boiler/Process Heater/RICE MACT
• Large Spark Ignition and Recreational Vehicle
  Rule
• Nonroad Diesel Rule
• North Carolina Clean Smokestacks Act
• NOx RACT in 1-hr NAA SIPs
• NOx SIP Call (Phase I)
• NOx SIP Call (Phase II)
• Petroleum Refinery Initiative
• RFP 3 Plans where in place for one hour plans
• TECO VEPCO Consent Agreements
• Tier 2 Tailpipe
• Title IV for Phase I and II EGUs
• VOC 2-, 4-, 7-, and 10-year MACT Standards
• Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR)

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Future Emissions in Georgia
Reductions in NOx and SO2 ? reductions in ozone
and sulfate PM2.5
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VISTAS 12 km
ALGA 12 km
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Attainment Demonstration

• Models are used in a relative sense rather than
  an absolute sense
• DVFuture RRF DVCurrent
• DVCurrent is based on observations
• RRF

Modeled Future Concentration
--------------------------------------------
- Modeled Current Concentration
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Reductions in Ozone (2002 ? 2009)
Max 8-hour O3 on June 12, 20022009 Emissions
Max 8-hour O3 on June 12, 20022002 Emissions
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Future Ozone Concentrations
2009 includes four SCRs at Bowen, two at
Wansley, and one at Hammond
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Future Ozone Concentrations

• Need ozone buffer below 85 ppb (e.g., 3 to 7
  ppb in Atlanta) Marmur et al. (2006)

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Future PM2.5 Concentrations
2009 includes 2 scrubbers at Bowen, 1 at
Wansley, 1 at Yates, and 4 at Hammond
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Emission Sensitivities
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Emission Sensitivities

• Sensitivity of ozone (ppb) and PM2.5 (mg/m3)
• Summer Episode May 25 - June 25, 2002 (2009)
• Winter Episode Nov 19 - Dec 19, 2002 (2009)
• Regional 10 Emission Reductions
• Mobile (on-road/non-road) area non-EGU
• NOx, VOCs, SO2, NH3, and primary carbon (PC)
• Atlanta (full sub), Macon (full sub),
  Chattanooga (full sub), Floyd County
• Point Emission Reductions
• Additional SCRs (NOx) and Scrubbers (SO2) at
  seven largest Power Plants in Georgia
• 2009 emissions already include 4 SCRs and 2
  scrubbers at Plant Bowen, 2 SCRs and 1 scrubber
  at Plant Wansley, 1 SCR and 4 scrubbers at Plant
  Hammond, and 1 scrubber at Plant Yates

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Ozone Sensitivity in Atlanta
30 Reductions
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NOx VOCs in Atlanta (Ozone)
10 NOx (38 TPD) 10 VOCs (49
TPD)
June 12, 2009 June 12, 2009
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SCR NOx Controls (Ozone)
McDonough (2 SCRs)
Branch (2 SCRs)
Hammond (3 SCRs)
Scherer (4 SCRs)
Yates (2 SCRs)
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Ozone at Confederate Avenue
SCRs at Plant Scherer
- 2002 modeled value above 85 ppb - used for RRF
calculations
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Ozone Animations (900 pm)
2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer
GMT
GMT
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Ozone Animations (1000 pm)
2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer
GMT
GMT
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Ozone Animations (1100 pm)
2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer
GMT
GMT
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Ozone Animations (1200 am)
2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer
GMT
GMT
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Ozone Animations (100 am)
2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer
GMT
GMT
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Ozone Animations (200 am)
2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer
GMT
GMT
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Ozone Animations (300 am)
2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer
GMT
GMT
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Ozone Animations (400 am)
2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer
GMT
GMT
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Ozone Animations (500 am)
2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer
GMT
GMT
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Ozone Animations (600 am)
2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer
GMT
GMT
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Ozone Animations (700 am)
2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer
GMT
GMT
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Ozone Animations (800 am)
2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer
GMT
GMT
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Ozone Animations (900 am)
2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer
GMT
GMT
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Ozone Animations (1000 am)
2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer
GMT
GMT
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Ozone Animations (1100 am)
2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer
GMT
GMT
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Ozone Animations (1200 pm)
2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer
GMT
GMT
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Ozone Animations (100 pm)
2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer
GMT
GMT
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Ozone Animations (200 pm)
2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer
GMT
GMT
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Ozone Animations (300 pm)
2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer
GMT
GMT
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Ozone Animations (400 pm)
2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer
GMT
GMT
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Ozone Animations (500 pm)
2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer
GMT
GMT
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Ozone Animations (600 pm)
2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer
GMT
GMT
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Ozone Animations (700 pm)
2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer
GMT
GMT
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Ozone at Confederate Avenue
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Fire Station 8 - Annual
30 Reductions
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Scrubber SO2 Controls (PM2.5)
McDonough (2 Scrubbers)
Bowen (2 Scrubbers)
Branch (4 Scrubbers)
Hammond (4 Scrubbers)
Wansley (1 Scrubbers)
Scherer (4 Scrubbers)
Yates (2 Scrubbers)
10 PC(Atlanta)
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PM2.5 at Fire Station 8
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Health Benefits Modeling
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Health Benefits Modeling

• Modeling avoided mortality and morbidity
  associated with various emissions reduction
  scenarios
• Evaluate and prioritize various attainment
  strategy options
• Consider air quality management across multiple
  pollutants and regions
• Improve the net benefits of attainment efforts
• Communicate impacts to decision-makers,
  stakeholders and public

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Benefits Analysis with BenMAP
Modeled (or measured) reductions in pollutant
levels
Reduced morbidity, mortality, health costs
(and other benefits analysis software)
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EPAs Nonroad Diesel Rule
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Health Benefits in Atlanta
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Future Analyses

• So far, analyzed health benefits based on
  observations
• Next step is to analyze health-benefits based on
  modeled emissions reduction scenarios (annual
  CMAQ simulations as input to BenMAP)
• Ozone
• SCRs at McDonough and Scherer
• Ground level NOx sources
• PM2.5
• Scrubbers at major power plants
• Primary carbon sensitivities

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Potential Control Measures
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Potential NOx Controls

• SCRs at Plant McDonough and Plant Scherer
• NOx Reasonably Available Control Technology
  (RACT)
• 16 Facilities in 20 County area with a NOx PTE
  over 100 TPY
• Truck Stop Electrification (TSE)
• Example Rule requiring 20 electrification could
  result in potential 1.1 TPD reduction in NOx
• Inspection Maintenance (IM)
• Assessed for 7 new Atlanta Area non-attainment
  counties
• Barrow, Bartow, Carroll, Hall, Newton, Spalding
  Walton
• NOx Reduction of 3.17 tons per summer day across
  all 7 counties
• Additional NOx Controls
• Mobile on-road and non-road diesel controls
• Traffic Management and Mass Transit
• Open Burning Restrictions
• Extend stationary source controls outside of
  non-attainment area

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Potential PM2.5 Controls

• Coal/Oil Fired Stationary Sources
• Electric Generating Units (EGUs) Subject to
  CAIR
• Non-EGUs Subject to RACT
• Mobile Diesel Controls
• On-road ? trucks, buses
• Off-road ? construction, agriculture, airports,
  and rail/locomotives
• Open Burning
• Commercial Meat Cooking

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Clean Air Interstate Rule

• Federal Rule for the abatement of the regional
  transport of ozone and PM2.5 in 28 Eastern states
• Only Electrical Generating Units Subject to Rule
• 70 reduction in SO2 and 60 reduction in NOx
  when fully implemented (from 2003 levels)
• Cap and Trade program for NOx and SO2 emissions
  per ton

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Links to Cindy Crawford
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Similar Health Impacts.

• Shortness of Breath
• Increased Heart Rates
• Even Heart Attacks!!

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EPD Control Strategy
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Summary

• 8-Hour Ozone
• Macon will likely be in attainment in 2009
• Need additional emission reductions to show
  attainment in Atlanta
• Reduction from Regional NOx and EGU NOx
• PM2.5
• Macon, Floyd county, and Chattanooga will likely
  be in attainment in 2009
• Need additional emission reductions to show
  attainment in Atlanta
• Reductions from Regional PC (OCEC)
• Reductions from EGU SO2
• Quantify impact from local sources with a
  dispersion model (ISC or AERMOD)

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Jim Boylan, Ph.D.Georgia Dept. of Natural
Resources4244 International Parkway, Suite
120Atlanta, GA 30354james_boylan_at_dnr.state.ga.u
s 404-362-4851
Contact Information