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Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change Among

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Title: Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change Among


1
Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability
and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change
Among Farmers in Mexico and Argentina
  • Project Coordinator Dr. Carlos Gay, Centro de
    Ciencias de la Atmósfera, UNAM, México DF
  • Project Duration 3 years

2
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
  • How are broad-scale socioeconomic processes of
    institutional change in Mexico and Argentina
    affecting the vulnerabilities of different types
    of farm systems and their capacities to adapt to
    climatic variability and change?
  • Focusing on current adaptation and vulnerability
  • Goal of identifying institutional constraints to
    adaptation

3
Link between Institutional Change and Adaptation
  • Represents an impact to farmers affects
    stability of livelihoods through time
  • Circumscribes resource use and access, decision
    flexibility
  • In context of Neoliberalism, markets play
    critical roles in opportunities and constraints
    for adaptation
  • Institutions may facilitate adaptation via better
    use of climate information among other options

4
Climate information
Impacts Exposure
Perceptions, impacts knowledge

Flexibility, Stability, Resource Access
Climate
Policy, Markets

f
Vulnerability
Farm-level
Macro-level
Opportunities/ Constraints
Adaptation Capacity
Recommendations to facilitate adaptation
5
RESEARCH SITES
  • Small-scale export Veracruz and Córdoba
  • Large-scale diversified export Tamaulipas and
    Córdoba

6
Córdoba Province Argentina
7
Climate Analysis
  • Drivers of regional and local variability
  • Trends in temperature, precipitation
  • Extreme events
  • Generation of climate change scenarios
  • Downscaling to required spatial scale of analysis
  • Sensitivity of crops and agroecosystem

8
Institutional Analysismethods
  • Review of policy and program documents
  • Analysis of statistical data at for trends and
    access to key services and resources (1980
    2002)
  • Trends in relevant output and input prices
  • Structured interviews with stakeholders
  • Stakeholder workshops
  • Stakeholder climate information needs and use

9
Farm Level Analysismethods
  • Focus groups
  • Participatory Rural Appraisal
  • Impact matrix
  • In-depth interviews
  • Analysis of changes in livelihood strategies
  • Household livelihood surveys

10
Farm-level Analysisadaptative capacity
  • Focused on three attributes of adaptation
  • Flexibility
  • Diversity of agricultural system ()
  • Livelihood/Income diversity ()
  • Resource base (endowments) (-/)
  • Tendencies and changes in the above
  • Stability
  • Exposure to/ impact of market risk (-)
  • Exposure to/ impact of climatic risk (-)
  • Degree of variability/change in rural economy (-)
  • Tendencies and changes in the above

11
Farm Level Analysis adaptive capacity
  • Resource Access
  • Access to financial resources (credit) ()
  • Participation in support programs ()
  • Participation in social programs (/-)
  • Irrigation access()
  • Social organization and networks ()
  • Market access (-/)
  • Tendencies and changes in the above

12
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13
Methods still under consideration
  • Establishing coping range and thresholds for each
    case study
  • Application of option theory to understand
    decisions and risk perception
  • Scenario construction (bottom-up storylines)
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