C4ISR Subpanel Report Littoral AntiSurface Warfare ASUW Study National Defense Industrial Associatio

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APPLIED FUTURES
The Importance of Effects-Based
Thinking Christine MacNulty, FRSA
16 July 2008
www.exploit-the-future.com
christine.macnulty_at_gmail.com
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The Nature of the Problem

• Successful acquisition of complex systems
  requires a systematic approach to contracting,
  and firm acquisition governance
• Recently, there have been a number of examples of
  where the acquisition process has failed to
  deliver desired capabilities or to control
  escalation of costs
• There is a need, both in Government and in
  private industry, to improve the ability to
  define the desired results of a given
  acquisition, this includes
• Developing the right contract approach to
  deliver a complex system with the desired
  capabilities
• Keeping costs under firm control

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What is Required?

• A Vision for the Program that is shared by all
  the Stakeholders both private industry and the
  Government. This is generally requirements-driven
  
• A Strategic Plan for the Acquisition with the
  logic trail and critical paths explicit so that
  any changes can be made in conscious recognition
  of what they are going to affect and how they
  will change the planned output
• Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs) that take
  priority over Measures of Performance (MOPs)
• A systematic approach to the contracting process
• A means for achieving firm acquisition governance

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The Perils of Process

• Everyone is going overboard on Lean Six Sigma,
  BPR, BPI
• These are very useful if we have clear
  goals/objectives towards which were working
• If were going in the wrong direction, these
  approaches will help us get there faster
• (And, by the way, if we are trying to develop a
  truly network-centric organization, we need fat
  built in to the system. Lean will prevent it)
• Compliance Checklists beware!
• It is possible to be in compliance with every
  item on a check list, and yet the Program can be
  off track (e.g. Information Assurance)
• Effectiveness trumps Performance
• Both are important, but achieving the Vision or
  Goal is more important than getting to the end of
  some process on time

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What is Required?

• A significant change in mindsets!
• Away from PROCESS
• Towards OUTCOMES or EFFECTS

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Two New Habits of Effective PMsto Combat the
Perils of Process

• Focus
• Direction

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Thoughts on Accomplishing theTwo Habits

• Vision Based Planning
• A Vision has emotion
• Effects Based Thinking
• EBT requires logic

Engaging the Heart Inspiring Providing Direction
Engaging the Head Motivating Providing Focus
To get the best out of people and their
capabilities, we need to harness both head and
heart
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Apocryphal Story
Food
Packaging
Pallets
?
Transportation
We have all heard about mission creep and
project creep
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Increasing Complexity?

• The world has always been complex, but we have
  often seen and thought about only a small part of
  it
• Today we are being forced to take a larger
  systems perspective on our operations
• As the number of nodes (people, things,
  organizations) increase, the possible
  relationships between them increase exponentially
• Large projects that involve multiple
  organizations and many people must understand
  that complexity and be able to deal with it

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Increasing Complexity?
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Increasing Complexity?
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Possible Arrangements 2 2
More than the number of particles in the known
universe
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The Changing Nature of Warfare and Business
Challenges

• Increasing complexity
• Technology
• Society
• Politics
• Need to form strategic alliances
• Increasing globalization
• Understand cultures
• Understand ways people know and think
• Understand markets
• Understand ways of doing business
• Need for speed
• Innovation
• Disruptive innovation macro and micro
• Which make the outcomes/effects more difficult to
  determine and measure

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Effects
The System
Outcomes/ Effects
Inputs
Outputs
The system has entities, relationships and
activities all of which are described by
processes (Bertalanffy)
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Key Components of EBT

• Visualize or develop a Vision of the desired
  outcome
• Use the Socratic Method / Critical Thinking /
  Systems Thinking to find the REAL Vision /
  desired outcome
• Engage in dialectic reasoning to examine
  contradictions and to promote creative thinking.
• Engage in deep think including reframing
• Take a systems perspective on the Vision /
  desired outcome

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Simple Example of Critical Thinking and Systems
Thinking

• First thoughts on Vision (?)
• I want my house painted
• Use the Socratic Method to find the REAL desired
  outcome (the larger systems perspective) keep
  asking questions
• Why do I want my house painted?
• Because the paint is peeling
• Because I want to protect my investment
• Because I dont like the present color
• Because my spouse is nagging
• Because I want my house to look beautiful and
  cared for
• Let us assume our real Vision is the last desired
  outcome it is the most Visionary of the reasons
  in which case
• If I want the house to look beautiful and cared
  for, is painting enough?
• If I want the house to look beautiful and cared
  for, what else could I do?
• Replace doors and windows
• Replace the roof tiles
• Re-landscape the garden
• Re-surface the driveway

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Example (cont.)

• Whats involved in making the house look
  beautiful and cared for?
• Money
• Time
• Labor
• Disruption to daily life
• If I want the house to look beautiful and cared
  for how much / many of these ideas can I afford?
• If I hire contractors to do it?
• If I do it myself?
• If I do part and contractors do part?
• If I take the third option, how can we schedule
  the work?
• What preparation will be involved?
• What needs to be done in what order?
• We dont want dirt/sand blowing about when paint
  is wet
• We want the drive to be re-surfaced when people
  do not need to use it
• Will it affect the time of completion?
• etc. etc.
• How will we know when all the work is done?
• Develop a critical path analysis
• Develop metrics of outcome (MOEs not MOPs)

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Purpose of a Vision
2018
2008
To provide direction a Guiding Star
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VisionMust be demand- or requirements-led
2018
2008
Requirements- or Demand-Pull
Technology- or Supply-Push
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Vision
A Vision without (Strategy and) Action is a
Daydream
Action without (Strategy and) Vision is a
Nightmare
Derived from a Japanese Proverb
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Typical Vision-Based Planning Process
Current Status of XXX
Technology Developments
System Requirements
New Ideas
Role in Larger Organization
External Drivers
Mini-Scenarios

• Outputs include
• Vision, Values
• Goals, Objectives
• Strategies
• Stakeholder Strategies
• Action Plan
• Roles Responsibilities
• Metrics
• Implementation Plan

Reframe
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Reframing

• Reframing is about seeing things differently
  slicing the pie differently
• Nixon walks on water vs Nixon cant swim
  (Washington Post in 70s)
• House versus Home
• Requirements Outcomes vs Capabilities
• Outcomes vs Performance
• Reframing can open up new possibilities and new
  ways of doing things

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Vision-Based Strategic Planning
Ideas / Scenarios about the Future
Vision
Roles Missions
Policies / Constraints
Top-Level Goals
Objectives
Periodic Feedback
Periodic Feedback
COMMITMENT
CONSENSUS
Strategies
Action Implementation Plan with Metrics, Roles
Responsibilities
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Related Ideas from Jim CollinsGood to
GreatWhy Some Companies Make the Leap and
Others Dont
B R E A K T H R O U G H
B U I L D U P
Level 5 Leadership
First WHO Then WHAT
Confront the Brutal Facts
Hedgehog Concept
Culture of Discipline
Technology Accelerators
DISCIPLINED PEOPLE
DISCIPLINED THOUGHT
DISCIPLINED ACTION
F L Y W H E E L
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Example NSWG1Commodores Concerns 1995

• Wanted to make the SEALs relevant
• Become a strategic asset for CINCs
• Solve problems of PERSTEMPO/ OPTEMPO
• Reduce mission/campaign planning time
• Increase survivability
• Lessen footprint
• Lessen logistics tail

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Commodores Vision 1995

• Vision/Purpose included
• We will be the force of choice to clarify and
  simplify the battlefield
• We will lead the way in advanced technology,
  training and tactics to provide unorthodox
  solutions to complex problems
• Resulted in Quantum Leap
• Change in organizational structure
• Smaller platoons
• New way of doing business
• Reduction in questions about direction

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Quantum Leap

• Key ideas from Quantum Leap
• Reduce amount of communications traffic
• Reduce time for communications/message traffic
• Its cheaper to move information than people
• Its cheaper to have smaller footprints less
  logistics tail
• Operate smarter nodal analysis (effects based
  thinking) to decrease detectability and
  increase survivability
• Use Special Operations Executive and FedEx as
  models

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Mission Support Center 1996

• In 1996 set up the first version of the MSC
  demand driven
• Blue Force Tracker
• Meteorological/Oceanographic (METOC) experts
• Imagery analysts
• New form of radio bursts to communicate
• RD Department mad scientists

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Mission Support Center

• Used for almost all missions since 2000
• SEALs were first on ground in Afghanistan after
  9/11 with only four people later expanded to
  12
• In Iraq, they were able to secure two critical
  nodes of oil pipelines and turn off the oil
  before it could be dumped in the Gulf
• Where co-located with Army and Marine Corps, the
  MSC becomes the most reliable and fastest source
  of information for them
• Operates 24/7 has capacity for surge
• Can reconfigure/update software on the fly for
  those forward
• Today it provides a One-Stop-Shop for SEALs

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Why the Success?

• It worked because the Commodore was passionate
  about his Vision
• He had the intellectual ability to think through
  what he wanted to achieve
• He gave his leadership the opportunity to
  participate in the development of the Vision and
  Plan
• He enabled them to become passionate about it
• He had the confidence to seek out-of-the-box
  solutions and implement them

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WIIFM Whats In It For Me?How to Engage Heart
and Head

• Through Values and Motivations
• Socio-cultural model of industrialized nations
  based on Maslows developmental Hierarchy of
  Needs
• Tested and used in many countries since the early
  70s for
• Strategy development
• New business development
• Marketing
• Training and education
• Communication

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Maslows Hierarchy of Needs
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Characteristics Pioneers

• Pioneers (37 US Population)
• Most likely and able to work in networks they
  are happy to be the leader one day and the
  gofer the next
• Greatest ability to take a systems view
• Most willing and able to use Information
  Technology
• Most willing and able to operate in highly
  complex, uncertain, ambiguous environments
• See interdependencies and connections
• Ideas people grasp new ideas quickly
• People people relationships matter

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Characteristics Prospectors and Settlers

• Prospectors (50 US)
• Goal oriented want to win at any cost
• High energy want to get things done
• Willing to change, if they see it is in their
  best interests
• Seeking professional advancement
• Independent
• Action oriented
• Settlers (13 US)
• Traditionalists tried and true approaches
• Want to get things right dot is and cross
  ts
• Concerned about change
• Dont want to throw the baby out with the
  bathwater
• Dependable
• Dependent

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The Two Habits

• Use Values to change Mindsets, then ensure that
  leadership at all levels has
• Focus Enhanced by Effects Based Thinking
• Direction Provided by the Vision
• Both contribute to the overall performance of the
  people engaged in the project and to the quality
  and effectiveness of the outcomes

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Questions?