World Cruise Tourism Market and the Baltic Vision

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World Cruise Tourism Market and the Baltic Vision

• By
• Peter Wild and John Dearing
• G. P. Wild (International) Limited

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Background

• Cruise tourism is the fastest growing part on
  tourism in the world
• Cruise tourism has grown consistently since at
  least 1980
• The industry has shown great resilience in the
  face of difficulties
• It made a rapid recovery from 9/11 and has
  enjoyed a boom since early 2004
• The fundamentals of the industry are strong

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Introduction

• The growth of the cruise industry has meant many
  changes in cruise port operations and the
  infrastructure needs of destinations
• Key drivers of this change include
• Increasing introduction of larger cruise ships
• The requirement to handle higher concentrations
  of cruise tourists over a short time scale a
  challenge for local resources, traffic management
  and supporting infrastructure
• Need to develop new itineraries and destinations
  to handle market changes

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The Next generation and Larger Cruise Ships
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Current Ordering Position
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Annualised Ordering Position
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Trends in Newbuildings to 2012
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An Analysis of Current Order Book
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Structure of current order book
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Annualised Levels of Investment
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Impact of Vessel Size on Itineraries and Ports
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The Rise of the Mega Ship
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Deployment of Mega Cruise Fleet
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Comment

• Some smaller cruise ships will continue to be
  built
• The size of the average cruise ship will continue
  to increase in next decade
• Mega cruise ships will gradually replace lower
  capacity tonnage built prior to 1990
• Debatable whether cruise ships will get larger
  still and go beyond the Genesis Class
• Changing fleet structure has many implications
  for ports and itineraries

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Comment cont

• A survey by G. P. Wild (International) Ltd has
  established that an ever increasing number of pax
  will cruise on large ships by 2014
• Over 50 will sail on ships 290m loa
• Almost 30 will use ships 300m loa
• 20 of the 42 cruise ships on order exceed 300m in
  length

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Further comments

• Ports that are unable to accommodate the largest
  ships face the prospect of an ever decreasing
  market share
• For example a port which just 17 years ago was
  able to handle the largest ships under
  construction at that time (around 250m) faces a
  reduction of 54 in market share by 2014

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Fleet structure in 2011 by length
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More comments

• Almost 78 of cruise tourists will sail in
  vessels exceeding 250m in length by 2011
• Over 57 of the fleets capacity will be accounted
  for by ships in excess of 275m
• 21 of the fleets capacity will be offered on
  vessels over 300m in length

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Critical Scantlings

• Length up to 360m
• Beam in excess of 55m
• Draft maximum 10.3m
• Air draft in excess of 65m

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Implications for Ports

• To maintain or increase market share ports not
  able to meet future market requirements will have
  to invest in new facilities and infrastructure
• Two berths of 350m plus are almost certainly
  going to be required if a port wishes to remain
  competitive and attractive to the cruise lines by
  2014

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Implications cont

• Berths to accommodate 360m cruise ship may only
  be required to provide around 250m for flat of
  sides with dolphins or other similar arrangements
  being used to provide safe berthing overall
• Suitable infrastructure needs to be provided to
  accommodate traffic flows to and from the ship
  including coach marshalling
• Car parking will be needed for turnarounds
• Customs, immigration and security issues all need
  to be addressed

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Possible Traffic Flow Needs
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Funding Investment

• This can be complex and take various forms
  depending upon the particular position of a port
  and destination
• Port authorities, towns and cities, governments
  at various levels and banks and financiers can
  all play a role
• Also increasingly the cruise lines themselves are
  participating in port related investments
  perhaps also agreeing to make a certain number of
  calls over a period of time

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Examples Cruise Line/ Port
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Thank You

• www.gpwild.com