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Understanding the Big Wave Collaborative Efforts to Predict Tsunami Impacts

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Title: Understanding the Big Wave Collaborative Efforts to Predict Tsunami Impacts


1
Understanding the Big Wave Collaborative
Efforts to Predict Tsunami Impacts
  • Cherri M. Pancake
  • pancake_at_nacse.org

Northwest Alliance for Computational
Science Engineering (NACSE) Oregon State
University
2
Tsunamis What and How
  • Most tsunamis generated by earthquakes

3
Tsunamis What and How (2)
  • Landslide/volcano induced tsunamis
  • 10 of tsunamis in last 100 years

4
Tsunami Wave System
  • Generation
  • Seafloor disturbance pushes up the overlying
    water
  • Propagation
  • Wave travels at jetliner speeds shoaling
    refraction amplify wave
  • Inundation (runup and rundown)
  • As wave moves into shallower water, wave height
    and currents increase

5
Why Tsunamis are Hazards
  • Wave heights grow in shallow water
  • Best case quickly rising tide
  • Worst case wall of water with rocks and debris
  • Runups gt 30 m

April 1, 1946 Aleutian Islands earthquake Hilo,
Hawaii
6
Danger Can Continue for Many Hours
  • Local/regional tsunami
  • Generated nearby
  • Strikes shore quickly (in minutes) gt no time for
    official evacuation
  • Education and awareness are key
  • Distant (ocean-wide) tsunami
  • Generated far away
  • Strikes shore later (2 hours) gt time for
    official evacuation
  • Widespread damage
  • Tsunami Warning Center, then
  • Response needed recognize and act immediately
  • Response needed locally-guided safety actions

7
Reducing Tsunami Risk
  • Requires end-to-end solution
  • Hazard assessment
  • Warning / guidance
  • Mitigation awareness

8
End-to-End Risk Reduction Hazard Assessment
  • Historical database
  • Inundation / evacuation
  • Local hazard planning based on numerical models
    tsunami scenarios

9
End-to-End Risk Reduction Warning Guidance
  • Real time instruments detect earthquakes and
    tsunamis
  • Inform in 5-15 min
  • Near real-time instruments confirm tsunami
  • Coastal sea level gauges
  • Deep-ocean tsunami detection (DART)

10
End-to-End Risk Reduction Mitigation/Awareness
  • Design guidance
  • Designing for tsunamis
  • Structural engineering for seismic shaking and
    tsunami flooding
  • Vertical evacuation
  • TsunamiReady program
  • Multiple ways of receiving warning
  • Local community response plan
  • Emergency preparedness
  • Exercises, drills

11
Largest Earthquakes since 1900
M9.1 Andreanof Is., Alaska 1957
M9.0 Kamchatka, 1952
M9.3 Sumatra- Andaman Is., 2004
M9.5 Chile, 1960
12
26 Dec 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami
  • Aftershocks extend 1200 km northward


13
Tsunami Generation
  • 700 seismic stations in Japan measured fault
    rupture in space time
  • 8 minute series

14
Modeling Tsunami Propagation
2005 Sumatra Tsunami(M8.7)
2004 Sumatra Tsunami(M9.3)
15
Modeling Global Wave Height
16
Key Developments over Past 10 Years
  • Recognition that areas vulnerable to tsunamis are
    often
  • the most highly developed areas (ports, industry,
    etc.)
  • the most densely populated areas
  • Collaboration among key communities (research,
    community planning, emergency response, relief
    agencies)
  • Real-time deep ocean data
  • Direct confirmation of tsunami generation
  • New methods for inundation maps
  • Computational models improve the identification
    of risks
  • Tsunami wave height forecasting
  • Paleo-tsunami studies
  • More complete, longer tsunami histories
  • Recognition of slump-induced tsunamis

17
Paleo-Tsunamis in Crescent City
18
What That Could Mean Today
19
The Worst Danger Slump-Induced Tsunamis
  • Earthquake triggers landslide
  • Hillside stripped clean to bedrock
  • Slump hits water and triggers tsunami
  • Historical example Lituya Bay, Alaska (1958)
  • 525 m tsunami runup
  • Enormous damage
  • Uninhabited area (!!)

20
Where Advanced IT Fits In
  • Coastal areas vulnerable to tsunamis (and storm
    surges) are
  • also the most highly developed (ports, industry,
    etc.)
  • also the most densely populated
  • Real mitigation requires
  • Accurate realistic warnings (no false warnings)
  • Quick, appropriate human response (no room for
    error)
  • Availability of appropriate routes shelters
  • IT advances essential to
  • Enable "community-based science"
  • Speed the transition from research to practice

21
Collaborative Improvement of Models
  • IT Value-Added 1

22
Improving Tsunami Models
  • Has been difficult to analyze the tradeoffs among
    modeling approaches/methods
  • Friday Harbor Project gathered tsunami modelers
  • Identified set of initial conditions to be used
    by all
  • Each model was run independently
  • Modelers met to compare and discuss their results
  • Complicated by idiosyncratic
  • Data formats
  • Hardware/software platforms
  • Model controls

23
Collaborative Improvement of Models
  • Tsunami Computational Portal cyberinfrastructure
    for collaborative modeling
  • Initially funded by NOAA
  • Shared web portal for executing tsunami models
  • One-stop access to models from different research
    groups
  • Wizard-style interface guides user through
    selection of model, region, initial conditions
  • Streamlined and consistent access to input
    data results

24
How the Tsunami Computational Portal Works
Models contributed by tsunami researchers ported
maintained by computer scientists
Tsunami Researchers
Setup Wave Generation
Propagation Results
Runup Results
Select Location Parameters
Community Forum
Portal
Discussion Comments
Geospatial Control Data
Wave Runup
Wave Generation
Wave Propagation
Models
Runup Data
System 1
System 2
Computers
  • Partnership of modelers, interface designers,
    geospatial database mapping specialists, system
    programmers, and visualization experts

25
What the Portal Does
  • Researchers access portal to
  • Select model, region, and tsunami conditions
  • Specify control settings for model
  • Submit job for execution
  • View / download results
  • Share comments on results
  • Collaboratively plan model enhancements

26
Collaborative Data Preservation
IT Value-Added 2
27
Collaborative Data Preservation
  • After each tsunami event, teams of international
    experts make site visits to collect
    reconnaissance data
  • Much of this data is highly perishable!
  • Physical measurements of damage
  • Can often quantify
  • Can demonstrate with photos, remote sensing
  • Emergency response and early recovery
  • Interview survivors
  • Determine casualties
  • Estimate damage

28
Collection of Perishable Data
  • Data perish quickly
  • Storms, reconstruction
  • People move back and forget!

29
Collaborative Data Preservation (2)
  • Reconnaissance data is critical for understanding
  • The nature of tsunami events
  • The impact of tsunamis on coastal populations and
    economies
  • Access and long-term preservation are almost
    unknown
  • Data collected in idiosyncratic ways
  • Maintained by individual who collected it
  • Rarely organized or archived in any systematic way

30
Tsunami Reconnaissance Data Repository
  • New effort to preserve key data about the Dec.
    26th tsunami that would otherwise be scattered or
    lost
  • Being developed by NEES and NACSE
  • Sponsored by NSF UNESCOs Intergovernmental
    Oceanographic Commission
  • Curated by disciplinary specialists
  • Accessible via web interfaces
  • Ability for broader community to add commentary
  • Will include data searching viewing tools that
    make sense to non-scientists too

31
Tsunami Reconnaissance Data
32
Tsunami Reconnaissance Data
Original interview written in Thai
33
Reconnaissance Data Includes
  • Before/during/after comparisons
  • Maps satellite imagery
  • Topographic bathymetry data
  • Images, videos
  • Data from tidal gauges, etc.
  • Field measurements
  • Inundation data, beach profiles, scour data, land
    uplift/subsidence
  • Observations of damage to buildings and physical
    infrastructure
  • Social/economic data
  • Eyewitness accounts personal interviews
  • Post-event questionnaires surveys
  • Casualties
  • Economic impact metrics

Banda Aceh, before after
34
Community-based Empirical Validation
IT Value Added 3
35
Community-based Empirical Validation
  • New earthquake engineering cyberinfrastructure
    includes worlds largest tsunami research
    laboratory
  • Developed operated by NSF as George E. Brown,
    Jr. Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation
    (NEES)
  • Large-scale experimental facility
  • Shared-use IT enables remote participation in
    real-time
  • Integration of numerical and physical experiments
  • Open access to all data

36
Remote Participation Tailored to Engineers
  • Users are tsunami researchers and ocean engineers
  • Web-based tools were tailored to established
    methods for conducting physical experiments
  • Extended to support coupling of physical and
    numerical experiments
  • Tsunami Wave Basin Experiment Notebook developed
    to
  • Help researchers deal with complex data
  • Output from 10s or 100s of sensors
  • Cameras at eye level, underwater, suspended from
    ceiling
  • Large distances between human and specimen
  • Share experiments with remote colleagues
    students
  • Broaden participation in experiments

37
Port Angeles Studies
38
Tsunami Wave Basin Experiment Notebook
  • Access to everything (even operator comments)
  • Slow-motion Instant replay Mark events

39
Structure-Impact Tests
  • Effects of water (and water-borne missiles) on
    different construction types
  • Carried out for Japanese government

40
Modeling Human Response to Tsunamis
IT Value-Added 4
41
Modeling Human Response to Tsunamis
  • Eyewitness accounts videos from Dec 2004 showed
    how critical human response really is
  • Interdisciplinary models are beginning to examine
    human behavior and its effects
  • How to transmit warnings effectively
  • How humans are likely to respond
  • How to motivate better response

42
Simulating Both Disaster and Response
  • Tsunami Scenario Simulator compares
    warning/evacuation scenarios in simulated
    disasters
  • Simulate human response in terms of info
    reception, responsiveness, evacuation strategy,
    etc.
  • Estimate human damage from the spatial relation
    distribution of evacuees and geospatial extent of
    hazard

Warning Simulation
Simulation of warning mechanisms and evacuation
responses
Evacuation Simulation
Impact estimates based on extent of inundation,
wildfire spread, etc.
Hazard Simulation
43
Tsunami Scenario Simulation of Owase City
44
Scenario-based Human Response Simulation
  • Early version of Tsunami Scenario Simulator is
    being used in Japan to design evacuation
    strategies
  • Useful to decision-makers for
  • Risk assessment
  • Evaluation of existing preparedness measures
  • Predicting impact of proposed strategies
  • Also applied for preparedness education
  • High-impact tool for increasing public awareness
  • Test studies in Japan showed that the simulations
    made individuals much more sensitive to warnings

45
Disaster Preparedness Is Still a Distant Goal
  • Were not really prepared for natural disasters
  • Tsunamis, storm surges, hurricanes, etc.
  • Monitoring alone cant save lives
  • Must also improve
  • Prediction methods
  • Response plans
  • Mitigation capabilities
  • … founded on solid research

46
Urgent Needs for Tsunami Research
  • Fundamental research on
  • Tsunami generation (when likely to occur and
    forces that will be created)
  • Effects of turbulent water and water-borne
    missiles on built structures
  • Accurate models predicting when/where tsunamis
    will strike land
  • New methods for
  • Monitoring tsunami behavior (e.g.,
    remote-sensing)
  • Coastal infrastructure (such as breakwaters) to
    protect shorelines
  • Resilient construction techniques to safeguard
    humans

47
Understanding the Social Dimensions
  • What factors are associated with tsunami-related
    deaths/injuries?
  • e.g., vulnerable locations, demographics of
    affected groups, behaviors associated with
    mortality
  • What technological behavioral elements must be
    integrated to save lives and protect property, ?
  • e.g., public education and preparedness,
    monitoring/detection systems, warning
    dissemination strategies
  • How can damage and social impacts be assessed
    rapidly to identify and prioritize emergency
    assistance?
  • What approaches would support economic recovery
    and sustainable development? Reduce losses from
    future extreme events?

48
Conclusions
  • Need to understand much more about natural
    disasters, if we are to safeguard lives and
    economic investments
  • Tsunami research has played a limited role to
    date
  • Results arent real-world enough to inspire
    confidence
  • Numerical models too compartmentalized (wave
    generation vs wave impact vs structural failure)
  • Experiments too small in scale

49
Conclusions (2)
  • New IT advances are enabling new kinds of science
  • Large-scale collaborations involving many
    disciplines
  • Community-based science
  • Already yielding scientific foundations for
  • Assessing vulnerability
  • Designing structures that resist tsunamis
  • Better standards for coastal roads, bridges, key
    utilities (power, water, etc.)
  • Improved emergency response procedures

50
Special Thanks to
  • … the many members of the tsunami community who
    shared their simulations, data, and images
    especially

Laura Kong, UNESCO/Intergovernmental
Oceanographic Commission Harry Yeh, Oregon State
University Vasily Titov, NOAA Pacific Marine
Environment Lab Elena Suleiman, Geophysical
Institute, U Alaska Fairbanks Miaki Ishii,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography Galen
Gisler, Los Alamos National Lab Hermann Fritz,
Georgia Tech Fumihiko Imamura, Tohoku U Toshitaka
Katada, Gunma U Ken Elwood, U British Columbia
George Plafker, Pacific Power E Philip Liu,
Cornell U Yuichiro Tanioka, Hokkaido U Murat
Saatcioglu, U Ottawa Lori Dengler, NOAA
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