Net Energy Next Energy by Ron Swenson

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Net Energy ? Next Energy by Ron Swenson
www.HubbertPeak.com/ASPO-USA
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Swenson Curve

• To avoid deprivation, humanity must match
  depletion with conservation and enduring
  substitution.

www.HubbertPeak.com/Swenson
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Consequences of Delayed Energy Investment
Net Energy Production
begin investment before decline
Begin investment during decline
www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil
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A flurry of books Whats going down
www.HubbertPeak.com/Library
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Okay, we know whats going down

• But whats coming up?

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Thomas Edison

• I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy.
  What a source of power! I hope we don't have to
  wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle
  that.
• (1847-1931)

www.ThomasEdison.com
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The Party's Over

• Photovoltaic electricity is still expensive.
• Richard Heinberg

www.HubbertPeak.com/apollo2
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Beyond Oil

• Solar electrical generation is not yet
  competitive for large-scale facilities...
• Kenneth S. Deffeyes

www.HubbertPeak.com/apollo2
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I thought we were talking about Energy!?

• So how did Economics (an instrument of policy)
  get into the picture?

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Oil, Jihad Destiny

• Solar power technology, however, is still in
  the stone age.
• Ronald R. Cooke

www.HubbertPeak.com/Youngquist
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The Long Emergency

• solar power ... works, though not nearly as
  well as fossil fuel
• James Howard Kunstler

www.HubbertPeak.com/apollo2
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Oil Addiction The World in Peril

• But all of them combined -- sun, wind, and
  water -- could never produce enough energy to
  replace the astronomical amounts of fossil fuel
  the West is consuming...
• Pierre Chomat

www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm
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Global Solar Energy Balance
www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm
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Energy State and Quality (Grade)

• In contrast to its vast quantity, the quality of
  solar energy is low relative to fossil fuels.
• ? The EROI for fossil fuels tends to be large
  while that for solar tends to be low.
• Higher energy densities also contribute to the
  higher EROI for fossil fuels relative to many
  renewable fuels.
• Cutler Cleveland

Tell that to a street vendor in Mexico City.
unless you consider depletion, ecological
footprint of extraction, or the implications of
ephemeral technology.
and what is the premise of converting solar
field energy into fuel in the first place?
Energy States Solid, Liquid, G a s, Field
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Thermodynamics of Coal

• Plus
• Greenhouse gases
• Ravaged land
• Water contamination
• People displaced
• Extraction uses oil

1 BOE
EROI  9?27 electric quality
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Thermodynamics of Oil

• It depends
• Pennsylvania?
• Saudi Arabia?
• Off-shore?
• Plus
• Ravaged land/oceans
• Greenhouse gases
• Water contamination

EROI  10
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Thermodynamics of Nuclear

• Plus
• Depletion
• Low grade ores ? Greenhouse gases to process
• Waste guard for 10,000 years

How do we value a 1,000 year wasteland?
EROI  4? 12 electric
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Thermodynamics of Tar Sands

• Plus
• Greenhouse gases
• Ravaged land
• Water contamination
• Extraction uses natural gas

Why bother?!
EROI  3
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Thermodynamics of Hydrogen

• Am I missing something?!

EROI  -½
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Thermodynamics of PV

• EROI 5 years
• Life 50 years

• Plus it can be bootstrapped

EROI  10?30 electric
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Thermodynamics of Thin Film PV

• EROI 6 months
• Life 20 years

EROI  40?120 electric
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Thermodynamics of Wind

• EROI 3 months
• Life 20 years

EROI  80?240 electric
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Back to State Quality (grade)

• How does ERoEI analysis embrace these factors?
• Time / sustainability
• oil depletion Inevitable degradation of
  quality.
• solar endurance Low quality starts to make
  sense.
• Land use / ecological footprint
• Uranium tailings Most dense becomes the most
  diffuse.
• Open pit coal mines Density depends on
  measuring stick.
• Its even an issue with Solar PV on roofs ? PV
  in deserts.
• Security / Energy drain on future generations
• Nuclear Power ? M.A.D. ERoEI goes
  astronomically negative.
• Oil Wars How much energy does it take to
  protect energy?
• Solar Power satellites are weapons, not energy
  technology.

Energy States Solid, Liquid, G a s, Field
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? Next Energy
www.HubbertPeak.com/ASPO-USA
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Since oil is big in the transportation sector

• a short history lesson.
• How did transportation transform?
• from solid fuels (hay and then coal) to
• liquid fuels (oil)
• And where do we go from here?

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Lest we forget They did bring coal to Newcastle.
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If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841
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No joke!
The original buggy whip protest
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The Horseless Carriage
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From GridLock to Gas Lines
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Corn Cars Bean Buses?
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Back to solid fuels?
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The All-New DonCar!
www.HubbertPeak.com/Transport
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Electricity. Not exactly a new idea
and it is ephemeral, like solar power.
Lift?
See?
Touch?
A match made in heaven.
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The Electric Rail
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Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)
www.ecotopia.com/ST
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Energy Revolution (Terawatt Challenge)
14.5 Terawatts220 M BOE/day
30 -- 60 Terawatts 450 900 MBOE/day
The Basis of Prosperity 20st Century Oil
21st Century Renewables
www.HubbertPeak.com/Smalley
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PV The Growth Industry
Oil declines at 4/yr PV increases at 50/yr
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Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil?

• Yes!
• Think TeraWatts

www.HubbertPeak.com/ASPO-USA
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Taking it one step further

• You may think Im pushing solar?
• Yes and no. The main point is
• Prevailing sentiments cannot blind us from seeing
  the solutions with the best ERoEI
• And we cannot be fixated on direct substitution
  of oil with liquid fuels, especially given the
  historic role of oil and the myriad advantages of
  electric transport.

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ERoEI(field) gtgt ERoEI(solid, liquid, gas)
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Fuels (solid/liquid/gas) will still have a place

• ERoEI of biofuels may be too low for urban
  transport
• (not to mention smog, congestion, hazard)
• Fuels will remain essential for
• Airplanes
• Ships at sea -- with wind power augmentation
  (KiteTugs)
• Agriculture

www.ecotopia.com/ST
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Colin Campbell

• Photovoltaics will be economic when there
  is serious production.
• 1996

www.HubbertPeak.com/Campbell
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Solar Industry Response?

• Goals
• 50 US electricity by 2025 ?
• 200 gW by 2030 10
• How to get there?
• Federal government procurement 100 m/year
• RD investment 250 m/year by 2010
• Enact, modify, establish, boost, support,
  increase, strengthen, grow

Inconsistent
Inadequate
www.HubbertPeak.com/Apollo2
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Global Warming over the Past Millennium
Very rapidly we have entered uncharted territory
Over the 20th century, energy consumption
increased sixteenfold. Global warming from the
fossil fuel greenhouse became a major, and
increasingly dominant, factor in climate change.
Slide from Marty Hoffert NYU (see Smalley)
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The conclusions are simple

• We are not doing enough fast enough.
• To spend our depleting energy capital resources
  effectively, we must first understand the
  Thermodynamics (ERoEI) of the alternatives.
• Then we must act quickly with resolve.

Economics or Thermodynamics Which will it be?
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? Next Energy
www.HubbertPeak.com/ASPO-USA
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• If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
  serious unemployment will result. Captains,
  cooks, drivers, repairment, and lock tenders will
  be left without means of livelihood, not to
  mention the numerous farmers now employed in
  growing hay for horses.
• Boat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and
  harness makers would be left destitute.
• Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April
  1832.