Impact of the Boxing Day Tsunami on Tourism in Thailand

1
Impact of the Boxing Day Tsunami on Tourism in
Thailand

• Thomas A. Birkland, SUNY Albany
• Pannapa Herabat, Asian Institute of Technology,
  Bangkok
• Richard G. Little, University of Southern
  California, Los Angeles
• William A. Wallace, Rensselear Polytechnic
  Institute, Troy, NY
• September 2005

2
We Focused on Thailand

• Highly developed infrastructure
• Important and growing tourism sector
• A maturing and developing nation and economy
• But still sensitive to external shocks

3
Why Study Tourism Disasters?

• Tourism is an important part of the Thai economy
• Tourism is important to many developing economies
  in S.E. Asia
• Tourists are particularly vulnerable in disasters
• Tourism is particularly fragile prone to
  downturns if tourists perceive an area as unsafe
• Bali bombing
• Air Travel and New York City after 9/11

4
Affected Area in Thailand
This graphic is rather silly, actually. It
suggests a much larger inundation zone and far
higher runup than actually occurred. One would
think from this map that Phuket was completely
overrun with water.
Source www.circleofasia.com
5
Aerial View Khao Lak
6
Our studys hypotheses

• We focused on the tourism sector in Thailand
• We approached the study this way The combination
  of sound physical infrastructure and extensive
  social capital combine to make Thailand resilient
  in the face of the tsunami.
• These hypotheses didnt really work to guide the
  research, as we will see.
• However, these features of Thailand may well be
  true

7
The Hypothesis Interconnected Networks

• The idea was that the beach resorts would be part
  of interconnected networks of
• Tourism companies
• Infrastructure
• Workers
• Suppliers
• These networks could break in a severe event

8
Problems with the Hypotheses

• We assumed a big network, with many nodes, and
  that a disaster would damage many parts of the
  network
• Resilience the ability to improvise in the face
  of a disrupted network
• Key to resilience Social capital
• In the tsunami, the only physical damage was to
  the ends of the nodes, at the beaches
• In Thailand, as in other places affected by the
  tsunami, deaths and physical damage was limited

9
Damage Initial Findings

• The physical infrastructure was damaged only
  within about 1 to 2 km from shore
• The inland infrastructure worked well
• Phuket airport closed only 30 minutes
• Minimal disruption of electricity, telecom
• Evacuation can work with sufficient warning

10
Initial Findings

• Medical facilities appeared sound
• Thailand a major medical tourism destination
• Public health impacts of the tsunami were minor
• Little evidence of communicable disease in April
• Shelter in place is a viable option if
• Buildings are tall enough (4 stories)
• Buildings are constructed to withstand tsunami
  waves

11
Example of Damage
12
Example of Damage
13
Example of Damage
14
Macro Scale Impacts

• Reductions in numbers of visitors
• Reduced number of direct flights to Phuket by
  overseas carriers (almost all visitors now must
  pass through Bangkok)
• Severe declines in the number of tourists and
  occupancy rates, even where rooms have been
  destroyed

15
Visitors to Thailand
16
International Air Travel
Many airlines halted direct service to Phuket
17
Domestic Air Travel
Domestic traffic at BKK and Chiang Mai continues
growth
while traffic to Phuket is down due to tsunami
(displacement to other regions in Thailand?)
18
Fewer rooms available.
19
combined with even fewer visitors
20
yields low occupancy rates
Occupancy rates in Phang Nga drop even with fewer
rooms available
21
and sharply lower tourism revenues
22
Interim Conclusions

• Tourism would be expected to drop sharply on Khao
  Lak beach in Phang Nga because most facilities
  were severely damaged or destroyed
• But tourism also drops nearly as much in Phuket,
  which suffered relatively minor damage
• Declines in tourism are likely due primarily to
  fears on the part of tourists that facilities are
  not ready for them, are unsafe, or are subject to
  another tsunami
• The challenge restoring confidence.

23
Policy Alternatives to Save Lives and Property

• Minimum setbacks from shoreline
• Likely ineffectivemany casualties were in ocean
  when tsunami struck
• Building code changes
• Structural changes
• Building to allow evacuation in place
• Structural resilience
• Elevation

24
The Challenges of Long-Term Recovery

• Development in harmony with natural amenities
  and, perhaps, with traditional uses
• Sustainability compatibility with traditional
  land uses
• Building confidence in the safety of the area

25
The Challenges of Long-Term Recovery

• The need to be near the beach, versus the dangers
  posed by the ocean
• Will setbacks be required or needed? Desirable?
  Enforceable?
• Will setbacks from the beach be enforceable?
• Continued media distortion of the problem

26
Next Steps

• Full impact on tourism unclear until next high
  season
• Facilities will be ready to welcome tourists on
  Phuket, not Phang Nga
• Will tourists return?
• Likely outcomes
• Revenues will be down as room rates and other
  amenities reduce prices
• Recovery of the tourist sector if confidence is
  restored in the safety of the area
• We will have data available to assess what
  happens a year later

27
The Research Team