regional scenario Planning Study

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• regional scenario Planning Study

Scenario Planning Approach and Overview
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Agenda

• General Overview
• Partnering Strategy
• Project Approach
• Project Deliverables

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General Overview
Project Background Scenario Planning 101 How Do
Regions Grow? The 4D Analysis
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Project Background
Building on the LRTP
The combination of inadequate revenue for
transportation improvements local land use
policies that promote decentralized growth are
threatening the sustainability of our region.
Region at a Cross-Roads

• Rapid and Decentralized Growth
• Significant Land Available for Development
• Regional vs. Local Interests
• Inadequate Revenue to Meet Needs

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Scenario Planning 101
What is scenario planning?
Scenario planning provides a forum, process, set
of tools, and measurable outcomes for communities
of all sizes to contemplate future possibilities.
Regional Applications

• Strategic Development Plans
• Long Range Transportation Plans
• Prioritizing Capital Improvements
• Growth Audits

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Scenario Planning 101
Why do scenario planning?

• Explore the what ifs of a regions future
• Consider the tradeoffs between different
• growth scenarios or policy decisions
• Re-frame local growth questions
• Answer what, where, when how growth
• should occur to meet a shared vision

We cannot solve our problems with the same
thinking we used to create them. -- Albert
Einstein
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How Do Regions Grow?

• Growth patterns intensities observed in a
  region are influenced by
• natural features
• transportation network
• available utilities
• market conditions
• local policies

Houston, TX
Portland, OR
Miami, FL
Los Angles, CA
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How Do Regions Grow?
Decentralized Growth Pattern
Decentralized growth (a.k.a. suburban sprawl)
favors single use, low-density development that
is generally isolated, or not well connected.
Typical residential neighborhood and suburban
commercial center surrounding an interchange
under a decentralized growth scenario (e.g.,
Houston, TX or Los Angeles, CA).
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How Do Regions Grow?
Centers, Corridors, Open Space
Growth directed into discrete centers, linked by
one or more regional transportation corridors,
encourages compact development, economic
vitality, and environmental stewardship. Land
surrounding compact centers remains green and
generally reserved for rural preservation,
agriculture activities, and open space.
The typical development pattern assumed for a
compact town center within a centers, corridors,
and open space growth scenario (e.g., BCDCOG
Region, Charleston, SC).
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How Do Regions Grow?
Compact Metropolitan Center
Compact metropolitan centers manage growth by
promoting planned, compact, and orderly
development patterns. These patterns are
efficiently served by public facilities and
services while preserving agriculture activities
and open space outside of the defined development
boundary.
The typical development pattern assumed in a
compact metropolitan center growth scenario
(e.g., Portland, OR or Miami-Dade County, FL).
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The 4D Analysis
Reorganizing growth patterns in the region has
the potential to result in more efficient and
cost-effective infrastructure, improved
quality-of-life, and increased environmental
stewardship. A successful transformation in the
region will require evaluation of the 4Ds
commonly associated with the relationship between
land use, urban design, transportation,
utilities, and fiscal spending.
The 4Ds

• Density
• Design
• Diversity (mix of uses)
• Distance

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Partnering Strategy
Key Stakeholders Outreach Coordination Project
Website
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Potential Stakeholders

• Regional Agencies/Institutions
• Fredericksburg Area Metropolitan Planning
  Organization
• George Washington Region Commission (GWRC)
• Rappahannock Economic Development Corporation
• Rappahannock River Basin Commission
• Fredericksburg Regional Commerce
• GWRC Green Government Commission
• Mary Washington University
• Local Jurisdictions
• Spotsylvania County
• Stafford County
• King George County
• Caroline County
• City of Fredericksburg
• Town of Port Royal
• Town of Bowling Green

• Public Utilities
• Dominion Virginia Power
• Rappahannock Electric Cooperative
• Verizon of Virginia
• Columbia Gas of Virginia
•  
• Focus Groups Participants
• Virginia Economic Development Partnership
• Fredericksburg Regional Alliance
• Local Real Estates Experts
• Local Developers
• Commonwealth of Virginia
• Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT)
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• U.S. Government/Military Installations

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Outreach Coordination

• Kick-Off Meeting with Local Jurisdictions
• GWRC Commission Briefings
• FAMPO Policy Committee Meetings
• CAO Coordination Meetings
• Study Advisory Committee
• Focus Group Meetings
• Sub-Region Citizen Workshops

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Project Website
The latest project information plus a list of
upcoming events can be found at
www.____________.com.
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Project Approach
Regional Scan Community Assessments Regional
Scenario Planning Reality Check
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Regional Scan
What is it?
The regional scan will communicate how land is
organized, used, and supported by public
facilities and services. It also will serve as
the baseline for measuring impacts associated
with future year growth scenarios.
What is covered?

• Natural environment
• Built environment
• Supporting infrastructure
• Regional influences
• Other plans guidance

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Community Assessments
What is it?
Community assessments will be made in each local
jurisdiction to identify the communitys stated
vision and values toward development.
What is addressed?

• Community character
• Development compatibility
• Review of local plans
• ordinances
• Place-making qualities

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Community Assessments
What makes a place?
The term place is generally thought of as the
look or feel of a development or neighborhood,
that which sets it apart from other areas. Place
types have their own unique setting, land use
pattern, visual qualities, and characteristics of
development.
Place-Making Elements

• Development pattern
• Density or intensity
• Prevailing building height
• Open space elements

• Street pattern
• Block size
• Street connectivity
• Street cross section

• Building architecture
• Landscape

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Character Areas
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Community Assessments
Place Type Palette
A place type palette will be used to identify and
describe different development patterns, types,
and intensities prevalent in the region. The
palette will include a full range of place types
that people may choose from for building future
growth scenarios considered for the region.
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Regional Scenario Planning
Traditional Approach
Stakeholders carry forward current trends to a
pre-defined future planning horizon (i.e.,
business-as-usual).
Future Year
Base Year
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Regional Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning Approach
Stakeholders consider several plausible futures
for a region assuming a pre-defined planning
horizon.
Future Year Alternatives
Base Year
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Regional Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning Approach
Stakeholders evaluate competing development
alternatives and establish a common vision for
regional policies and decision-making related to
new growth and anticipated changes in the region.
C
B
D
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Regional Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning Toolbox
Development Chip Game
Growth Forecasts
Scenario Planning Software
Regional TDM
Focus Area Studies
Project Website
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Regional Scenario Planning
CommunityViz Software
What is it?
A decision-based software that evaluates
competing future year growth scenarios under
consideration for a region.
Benefits

• Time savings
• Local calibration features
• Side-by-side comparison
• Quick updates
• Public involvement tool
• Becomes new planning tool for GWRC, FAMPO, and
  member jurisdictions

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Regional Scenario Planning
CommunityViz Software
Who is using it?
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Regional Scenario Planning
Development Chip Game
What is it?
The development chip game is a hands-on,
interactive opportunity that participants use to
express their desire as to the regions future.
In a workshop setting, participants prepare a
plan representing their vision of the region
based on their values. Trade-offs from scenarios
are measured and evaluated to inform participants
about the potential regional impacts created as a
result of local (participant) land use decisions.
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Regional Scenario Planning
Build Growth Scenarios
Several growth scenarios will be considered for
the region to highlight the trade-offs associated
with competing growth patterns and intensities.
Key Features

• Scenarios will be developed at each sub-region
  then combined for the region (scenario quilting)
• Scenarios will build on ideas generated during
  development chip games held in each community
• Scenarios will be different enough to pose real
  alternative choices for meeting the regions
  goals

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Regional Scenario Planning
Evaluate the AlternativesReality Check!
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Project Deliverables
Regional Scenario Planning Study CommunityViz
Training
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Project Deliverables
Regional Scenario Planning Study

• A report will be prepared to summarize the
  planning process, key findings, recommendations
  generated from the scenario planning initiative.
• A general framework plan for the region and
  supporting strategies (i.e., best management
  practices) presented in the report will be
  available as a resource for local governments.
• Local jurisdictions should contemplate
  recommendations in the report as they update
  their locally-adopted plans and ordinances.

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Project Deliverables
CommunityViz Training

• One example of the hand-off of tools used during
  the planning process to support future scenario
  planning studies (or monitoring) in the region
  independent of the consultant.
• Multi-day event will be open to staff from local
  jurisdictions represented in the region.

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• regional scenario Planning Study

General Introduction to Scenario Planning