Title: Adoption of Maize Technologies in East Africa What Happened to Africas Emerging Maize Revolution
1Adoption of Maize Technologies in East Africa
What Happened to Africas Emerging Maize
Revolution?
- Hugo De Groote, Cheryl Doss, Stephen D. Lyimo and
Wilfred Mwangi - Presentation for the FASID Forum V, Green
Revolution in Asia and its Transferability to
Africa, Tokyo, December 8-10, 2002
2The Problem
- 1997 The Emerging Maize Revolution in Africa
indicated that research and extension resulted in - Development of new technologies
- Adoption of those technologies
- Increased food production for Africa
3And maize production in Africa increased indeed
4But maize production per person decreased
5What is so important about maize in Africa?
- Maize is the most important food crop in East
Africa - Maize is most likely to respond to new
technologies - Hybrid
- Fertilizer
- Maize is most likely to benefit from private
sector involvement - Maize is more interesting to the urban consumer
6In this presentation
- Adoption of maize technologies in East Africa
- Kenya
- Tanzania
- Ethiopia
- Based on
- Literature and secondary data
- Seed production and sales data
- 22 adoption studies
7Maize in East and Central Africa
8Evolution of Maize in East Africa
9Maize in Kenya, 1960-2000
- Maize breeding program started in 1950s
- Hybrids for the high-potential areas very
successful - Research and seed production by state, linked
- 1990s
- liberalization, new companies enter
- Many new varieties, not succesful
- 1 hybrid 50 of sales (from 1976/1986)
- Fertilizer market, agribusiness liberalized
- 2002 Kenya Seed Company privatized, still
dominates
10Maize in Kenya, 1960-2000
11Evolution of adoption in Kenya
12Kenya agroecological zones
13Kenya seed sales and production
Based on seed sales 0.64 million ha in IMV (51)
14Adoption studies
15Tanzania
- First maize breeding program in 1960, 2 popular
OPVs were released - Second program launched in 1974
- 15 OPVs and hybrids
- 5 state foundation seed farms,
- 1 state-owned certified seed company TANSEED
- mid 1990s liberalization of seed sector
- At least 5 companies active, mostly
16Maize in Tanzania, 1960-2000
17Seed Sales - Tanzania
- Improved seed sales in 2000 7.75 tons
- Negative trend
- At seed rate of 15 kg/ha 517,000 ha
- Area in improved seed 26 (ignoring recycling)
18Adoption of improved seed and fertilizer -
Tanzania
19Factors influencing adoption - Tanzania
Highlighted factors significant at 5 in logit
regression
20Ethiopia
- Background
- Feudal system until 1974
- Marxist/military regime until 1991
- Since more liberal and, but still waiting for
elections - Maize system
- Strong research and extension program
- 1993 Sasakawa 2000 extension package (maize
seed, fertilizer and credit, based on
demonstration plots - 1995 national extension system takes over
massive - Yield almost doubles, but prices in 2001 drop by
2/3 - Demand for improved seed in 2002 very low
21Ethiopia Maize evolution
22Adoption of Improved Maize Varieties - Ethiopia
- 2001 7,700 tons, at 25 kg/ha 307,000 ha
- Area in improve maize varieties 307,000 ha or
21 - Price decrease from 1999/2000 to 2001 by 2/3
23Factors influencing adoption - Ethiopia
24Fertilizer adoption
25Conclusions - Methodological
- need for
- time series data on seed and fertilizer
- Production
- sales
- prices
- better definitions, clear concepts
- Logit analysis not very promising, rather
- institutional analysis
- Policy analysis
- Historic analysis
26Conclusions Green Revolution
- Farmers adopt improved varieties and fertilizer
when economical - Institutions are important
- National research programs
- Extension
- Credit
- Price policy