Adoption of Maize Technologies in East Africa What Happened to Africas Emerging Maize Revolution - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Adoption of Maize Technologies in East Africa What Happened to Africas Emerging Maize Revolution

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Adoption of Maize Technologies in East Africa What Happened to Africa's Emerging ... Hugo De Groote, Cheryl Doss, Stephen D. Lyimo and Wilfred Mwangi ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Adoption of Maize Technologies in East Africa What Happened to Africas Emerging Maize Revolution


1
Adoption of Maize Technologies in East Africa
What Happened to Africas Emerging Maize
Revolution? 
  • Hugo De Groote, Cheryl Doss, Stephen D. Lyimo and
    Wilfred Mwangi
  • Presentation for the FASID Forum V, Green
    Revolution in Asia and its Transferability to
    Africa, Tokyo, December 8-10, 2002 

2
The Problem
  • 1997 The Emerging Maize Revolution in Africa
    indicated that research and extension resulted in
  • Development of new technologies
  • Adoption of those technologies
  • Increased food production for Africa

3
And maize production in Africa increased indeed
4
But maize production per person decreased
5
What is so important about maize in Africa?
  • Maize is the most important food crop in East
    Africa
  • Maize is most likely to respond to new
    technologies
  • Hybrid
  • Fertilizer
  • Maize is most likely to benefit from private
    sector involvement
  • Maize is more interesting to the urban consumer

6
In this presentation
  • Adoption of maize technologies in East Africa
  • Kenya
  • Tanzania
  • Ethiopia
  • Based on
  • Literature and secondary data
  • Seed production and sales data
  • 22 adoption studies

7
Maize in East and Central Africa
8
Evolution of Maize in East Africa
9
Maize in Kenya, 1960-2000
  • Maize breeding program started in 1950s
  • Hybrids for the high-potential areas very
    successful
  • Research and seed production by state, linked
  • 1990s
  • liberalization, new companies enter
  • Many new varieties, not succesful
  • 1 hybrid 50 of sales (from 1976/1986)
  • Fertilizer market, agribusiness liberalized
  • 2002 Kenya Seed Company privatized, still
    dominates

10
Maize in Kenya, 1960-2000
11
Evolution of adoption in Kenya
12
Kenya agroecological zones
13
Kenya seed sales and production
Based on seed sales 0.64 million ha in IMV (51)
14
Adoption studies
15
Tanzania
  • First maize breeding program in 1960, 2 popular
    OPVs were released
  • Second program launched in 1974
  • 15 OPVs and hybrids
  • 5 state foundation seed farms,
  • 1 state-owned certified seed company TANSEED
  • mid 1990s liberalization of seed sector
  • At least 5 companies active, mostly

16
Maize in Tanzania, 1960-2000
17
Seed Sales - Tanzania
  • Improved seed sales in 2000 7.75 tons
  • Negative trend
  • At seed rate of 15 kg/ha 517,000 ha
  • Area in improved seed 26 (ignoring recycling)

18
Adoption of improved seed and fertilizer -
Tanzania
19
Factors influencing adoption - Tanzania
Highlighted factors significant at 5 in logit
regression
20
Ethiopia
  • Background
  • Feudal system until 1974
  • Marxist/military regime until 1991
  • Since more liberal and, but still waiting for
    elections
  • Maize system
  • Strong research and extension program
  • 1993 Sasakawa 2000 extension package (maize
    seed, fertilizer and credit, based on
    demonstration plots
  • 1995 national extension system takes over
    massive
  • Yield almost doubles, but prices in 2001 drop by
    2/3
  • Demand for improved seed in 2002 very low

21
Ethiopia Maize evolution
22
Adoption of Improved Maize Varieties - Ethiopia
  • 2001 7,700 tons, at 25 kg/ha 307,000 ha
  • Area in improve maize varieties 307,000 ha or
    21
  • Price decrease from 1999/2000 to 2001 by 2/3

23
Factors influencing adoption - Ethiopia
24
Fertilizer adoption
25
Conclusions - Methodological
  • need for
  • time series data on seed and fertilizer
  • Production
  • sales
  • prices
  • better definitions, clear concepts
  • Logit analysis not very promising, rather
  • institutional analysis
  • Policy analysis
  • Historic analysis

26
Conclusions Green Revolution
  • Farmers adopt improved varieties and fertilizer
    when economical
  • Institutions are important
  • National research programs
  • Extension
  • Credit
  • Price policy
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